CAPE Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mersky said: My point was it has done a better job than the EPS have. EPS always try to kill waves into the COD, including the current wave. Instead it reached a high amplitude in phase 4 and 5. Now in phase 6 where as the EPS had it into the COD by now Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: Huh??? You are kidding, right? Your looking at that mean curve, skewed obviously by outliers. Not unexpected past day 10. Fine let’s look at its 10 day forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window... Sorry let me clarify. The statistics for the pattern in January show we have a roughly 90% chance to end the year below normal snowfall based on past outcomes. That doesn’t mean it can’t snow at all. And hey maybe this is the 10% but right now that seems unlikely. Now below normal doesn’t mean no snow. But losing a huge chunk of prime climo to a crap pattern makes it hard to end well but we did have years like 2007 where a similar January went on to a snowier February. But the statistics were only about 50/50 about it getting any better the rest of winter. In some cases the pattern did shift but to another crappy one. I noted then that some of the crap years had a late snow in March and that might be our best chance. Wrt right now...the look day 15 can go either way. My lost earlier outlined that. But with the AK vortex there with a +NAO it will be hard to overcome. I was talking about day 10-15. I have no clue after. If the vortex shifts and an epo ridge pops like the guidance suggests then it’s a temporary problem. If it sets up shop there longer were in trouble. But I’m not going to speculate much past day 15. My guess is it’s temporary. But that still doesn’t mean we get a great pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Mersky said: The mean had it clearly heading into the COD. It is no where near the COD today, tomorrow, next week. It was clearly wrong, and not even close What I’m saying is look where the mean had it at day 10 and compare that to where it actually was. Pretty good imo. And when you say it was heading into you are basically extrapolating it out to days 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Considering that that was a forecast for Jan 15, that yesterday was Jan 16, and the MJO position was this .... I’d say it worked out pretty damn good And yes if you follow the mean curve it didn’t die and curve, but the general movement for a 15 day forecast was great. You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 28 minutes ago, Mersky said: Huh??? You are kidding, right? The whole spread missed it. Lol Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window... I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mersky said: 4 or 5 members out of 51 pushed it into phase 6. You call that good?? I don’t For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mersky said: You guys know what the mean is correct??? You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Mersky said: You guys know what the mean is correct??? Why are you stuck on the mjo projections. This started over you comparing my analysis of the EPS to Will’s and implying they have not gotten worse for our snow chances. Neither myself or CAPE said the EPS was right. Your off on a worthless tangent because your original point was BS. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Maybe she'll do a mini loop back into phase 8 for mid February. I'm not saying that I think that will happen, but think it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I’ve had a thought on the MJO for a while that I’ve mentioned a few times as to why we often don’t get the response we need when it goes into “cold phases”. The whole “MJO phase 8 is great...except when it goes into 8” thing. Basically I’ve theorized that the main reason the mjo phase 8/1/2 are correlated with the H5 look we want and cold is that those mjo phases are also correlated too and amplified by the types of global patterns that produce those results. So basically a winter here with a cold base state is likely to spend more time in cold mjo phases skewing those phases that way. But when we have a warm base state winter and we wait for an mjo wave to save us it rarely does. Even when it makes it into cold phases the response is muted. It often makes things “better but not good Enough”. I suspect a cold phase mjo is not as correlated to the response we want when it happens in warm base state winters. That is probably because it’s acting alone and not associated with the typical global pattern (canonical el nino) that it is during cold winters. Instead it’s being muted by the background warm base state. On the other hand I think the same is true in cold winters. Over the years when the mjo is about to crush our dreams and JB is spinning to save his subscriptions for another month he likes to throw out examples of warm phase rotations that were cold/snowy. But they are always years like 1978 where we were in a canonical nino pattern and the base state was cold. For the same reason in a year like that the warm mjo wave is muted by the background state. When we are in a warm year and the mjo spikes into warm phases we always torch. This has just been a theory and I never bothered to research and support it. I bring this up because isotherm seems to offer scientific support for this. Isotherm From the NYC sub “Chris, and I've been ruminating on some hypotheses re: the time-lag and distorted response. One issue, in my view, is base-state resonance. Sometimes the MJO/intraseasonal signal is misaligned with the base state, and as such, when it propagates through typically conducive phases, the N HEM response may not be bonafide/favorable due to the misalignment with the background indicators. For example, 2002-03 had a much more classic AAM/GWO and hadley/walker cell structures concordant with a canonical El Nino, and thus when MJOcirculated to 8, we had a more genuine N HEM response.” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Wrt the mjo and pattern...that doesn’t mean things can’t flip...but that when we do see major pattern flips it’s not purely because of the Mjo. An example is 2017/18. We had a cold phase rotation earlier that didn’t do us much good but when it rotated into cold phases again later as the permanent NAM state was flipping it had the canonical response. But that pattern then went on to persist even as the mjo wave faded and went into warmer phases. We need an actual atmospheric base state change along with the mjo. An mjo wave temporarily traversing cold phases during an unfavorable global base state pattern won’t do much good imo. Those kinds of pattern flips can happen. But the most likely time is late. The Nina like pac response favors such. Think 1999, 2009, 2017, 2018. Not all do but many years with similar pac issues feature a legit pattern change for March. and before the “that’s too late” posts yes yes I know. I’m not saying I want that. Just saying that’s what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Unfortunately, this suns up the the long range rather sadly. 18Z GFS WB prob of 3 inches or more thru DAY forever (16) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Unfortunately, this suns up the the long range rather sadly. 18Z GFS WB prob of 3 inches or more thru DAY forever (16) Now that’s bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 In fairness the gefs was better day 10-15 but dry. But closer to workable. It was a better trend fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Thanks for the positive vibe. We need it. Perhaps the mood will improve with a wintry scene tomorrow. 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In fairness the gefs was better day 10-15 but dry. But closer to workable. It was a better trend fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: Thanks for the positive vibe. We need it. Perhaps the mood will improve with a wintery scene tomorrow. It shifted quite a bit colder. But it seems to do that partially in response to bombing the day 10 storm then squashing everything behind it. Cold/dry day 11-16. But still a better look rolling forward than 12z was imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Now that’s bad. Woof. That’s horrendous for mid-late January. One run but yikes. My WAG at the beginning my of the month is slowly turning sour. I really thought the west coast troughing would eventually retrograde as the West PAC ridge pushes into the higher latitudes. Hopefully disrupting that crappy zonal flow we’ve had a bunch. Just hasn’t happened and now with no -NAO help it’s hard to hold any cold air in place... the little bit that’s even around attm. We’ll score.....eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat. Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat. Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. This week was really the worst. I still haven't gotten over the game. Thought I at least had a great snow pattern to cheer me up. So much for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. 2012-2013 wasn’t half bad here. Good around Christmas and then a really good March, over 20 that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: 2012-2013 wasn’t half bad here. Good around Christmas and then a really good March, over 20 that month Ack, meant 2016-17. Had 6.8” in 16-17 and 13.8” in 12-13 largely thanks to that mid March snow that was gone by 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat. Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. The guidance mishandling of the play between the tpv and North Atlantic vortex really mucked things up. That phasing and consolidating into Baffin vs splitting and sliding out forces the canadien ridge too far south and flipped the pattern on a dime. It was one thing...but a BIG thing. Maybe one big thing will break in our favor one of these times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat. Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again I know you’re busy...and I’ll be having some quality time with the wife...so maybe we should let Mersky take the wheel for the weekend. I fully expect to return to phase 8 bliss... blizzard warnings and talk of new biblical classifications. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just read the aforementioned Istotherm post. Based on his analysis I am concluding that our best case scenarios is to catch some breaks and struggle to a merely bad winter, as opposed to atrocious. It is still very much in play for me to get completely blanked this winter, for the first time since the 90's. By blanked I mean not even laying eyes on a single flake/pellet of frozen precipitation. In 2011-12 I at least saw a few sleet pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Icon looks interesting for next weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Icon looks interesting for next weekend GFS might try and get tricky too. Much lower heights in the NE. edit: not quite but it’s all we got going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS might try and get tricky too. Much lower heights in the NE. edit: not quite but it’s all we got going forward Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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