psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope LOL--PV in alaska with the most severe AO and NAO of all time but we got a PNA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: i think one day we will look at 2018-2019 and say it was a good winter. We had one of our snowiest Januarys in a long time and there was multiple events. Feb sucked but Jan was great I mostly missed that Jan storm. My 2 biggest snows were the November snow and the March one. But your point is legit. I liked 2018 better though. The 6” in mid December was nice and kind of a surprise. There was a super cold clipper storm in January. One half decent snow in February and then I ended the year with a bang in March. 3 accumulating snows and one of them 14” that stayed otg a week even late March . I ended that winter feeling really satisfied. I had almost identical totals both years but last year felt “empty” for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Ji said: LOL--PV in alaska with the most severe AO and NAO of all time but we got a PNA! The only saving grace there would be hints the NAM state is flipping. Build the heights more over the top into GL and displace the trough out of the high latitudes and it could get better. But by then it’s mid Feb. let’s just hope that run smoked some funky stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 hard to tell because the North american map hasnt loaded but there looks to be a trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ji said: but... Naw at the end it’s heading the same way the eps and weeklies are. And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 WB EPS Probability of 3 inches or more. For DMV, EPS says we wait until the end of the month for our next bout of winter precip after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not much to look forward to the next two weeks looking at the overnight model runs. The ICON has hinted at a storm off the east coast around the 22nd but at H5 the ridging is in the middle of the country. Now if we could just move it westward around 800 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Starting to get an uneasy feeling about the remainder of January. This look looks awfully familiar. More troughs on the west coast and not even a hint of help on the Atlantic side. Let's hope the GEFS/GEPS are correct for the period after day ten but the EPS has been degrading for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS Probability of 3 inches or more. For DMV, EPS says we wait until the end of the month for our next bout of winter precip after this weekend. That actually looks like an improvement over the maps you've been posting the last few days lol. I do like that map. Thanks for posting them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, LP08 said: Starting to get an uneasy feeling about the remainder of January. This look looks awfully familiar. More troughs on the west coast and not even a hint of help on the Atlantic side. Let's hope the GEFS/GEPS are correct for the period after day ten but the EPS has been degrading for the last several runs. Seems like EPS took that beastly Pacific ridge that was tormenting us and gradually shifted it over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes... The theme of the little things screwing us continues. Realistically with a look like that in Western Canada you would think the Atlantic might react better in the area near Greenland, instead look at that hot mess. The multi winter + NAO continues. I was reading about the dynamic models versus the statistical models in terms of the HL call for the winter . One model camp sure nailed it. Well, at least so far that is. I still have hope for February. The progression of sensible weather ,not necessarily how we got there, does seem to match Tom's progression nicely. If so, his ideas and the notion we pull back ridging in Feb and get an East Coast trough would spell opportunities for us. In this new day and age of non-analog winters and changing base states I would be happy with just a two week window of very cold and snowy weather. I don't even care if I don't hit average snowfall , give me 50 % of the season in two weeks with cold and wind and make it look like days of old . To me that is a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Something to think about , this does coincide with a period of reduced zonal winds. However ,based on what I am hearing and seeing a true official SSWE is not likely this winter. The vortex is resilient and strong. But as HM mentions, it does have a vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 @psuhoffman hmm saw this and thought of your post yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: @psuhoffman hmm saw this and thought of your post yesterday Would need to see before 1950 to make conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAO index goes negative at end of month. Doesn't that indicate east coast storms are likely to be more prevalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: NAO index goes negative at end of month. Doesn't that indicate east coast storms are likely to be more prevalent? -(-NAO) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there. Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there. Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there. @frd -- I posted updated thoughts in the main board and NYC forum which may be of interest re your inquiry. Pre-season, I highlighted the fact that the westerly shear stress in the stratosphere/z30 would be obdurate [i.e., weakly positive QBO remains presently], and when coupled w/ suppressed solar backdrop and other proxies, actually favors a very stable vortex. In fact, that particular permutation most favors the stable vortex. Usually, disruptions don't occur until late winter. That, in concert with other variables accounted for in my NAO formula, indicated generally low-gepotential heights across the NAO/Arctic domain for this winter. In my update post here, I discuss the remainder of the winter. I think most of February will probably be +NAO, but the window for NAO blocking would initiate late Feb-March if it does this particular year: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. Is it cold at least? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. You know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said. PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!). And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout. But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better. Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average. It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing. It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge! Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful. I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying. From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!"). The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us. Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose. But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not. I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen. So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 @C.A.P.E. The solar correlation isn't as simply as some think. On top of what that study showed, which is at times the correlation between solar and NAO have flipped, during the last 50 years there seems to be an opposite effect based on the QBO state. The impact of the QBO on the PV seems to change based on the solar. Unfortunately this year we had what we want during low solar, a descending transitioning QBO and it has yet to do us any good. Isotherm brings up some interesting factors regarding AAM that I honestly have not done much research into and therefore do not factor into any of my calculations. But what I noticed when I did look into his points some... was that the current state of some key circulations are opposite of what we would historically expect given current ENSO and other SST anomalies and indexes. Things are out of phase...and perhaps that does explain some of the odd responses. Like he suggests, some of these other factors being out of phase with what would typically be expected with a descending near neutral QBO in a warm neutral low solar...could be countermanding the typical response to such a state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Me personally...I could think of much worse looks then this at 200 hrs . Yea...verbatim majority are too warm but the unanimous signal for a storm along the east coast this Gefs run keeps me tracking . Many coastals in the mix and its prime climo. No need for a big anomalous cold airmass ...just cold enough I agree that it looks good at that specific moment, but the damage to temps has already been done. I'm usually as optimistic as anyone on here, but with the storm starting so far west, temps have no chance to recover in time even once it transfers to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro is close Haha...Any other winter and its mecs secs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: I agree that it looks good at that specific moment, but the damage to temps has already been done. I'm usually as optimistic as anyone on here, but with the storm starting so far west, temps have no chance to recover in time even once it transfers to the coastal. So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Euro is close Haha... Any other winter and its mecs secs Could someone post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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