BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS says Merry Christmas perhaps for next week All I see is coal and fruitcake. What day are you keying on? Merry Christmas to you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: All I see is coal and fruitcake. What day are you keying on? Merry Christmas to you! Was looking at a near miss on 3-4 Jan timeframe. Merry Christmas my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 36 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Was looking at a near miss on 3-4 Jan timeframe. Merry Christmas my friend. One thing the GFS deliver on the op run is cold late in the run. Check out these 850 departures. Nippy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: One thing the GFS deliver on the op run is cold late in the run. Check out these 850 departures. Nippy Both the EPS and GEFS are building heights in the EPO space towards day 15, but it's a bit too far west. There will be a mechanism to get cold air delivery into Canada, but we will probably need to be patient here. Hopefully the -EPO is real, and the long wave pattern progresses eastward. Verbatim the mean trough will be in the western US with a west based EPO ridge, and with a +NAO, there will a tendency for a persistent SE ridge, and a storm track to our NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: All I see is coal and fruitcake. What day are you keying on? Merry Christmas to you! That has been period of interest for a few days. The 0z run had a strong storm ejecting out of the sw and gave us heavy rain with NJ and NY getting heavy snow. 6z run has same storm but doesn't make it up the coast. Maybe we can settle on a blend of the two and let the chips ( or flakes) fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: That has been period of interest for a few days. The 0z run had a strong storm ejecting out of the sw and gave us heavy rain with NJ and NY getting heavy snow. 6z run has same storm but doesn't make it up the coast. Maybe we can settle on a blend of the two and let the chips ( or flakes) fall where they may. Yeah. Perhaps but if the GEFS is correct it will take Nearly the first half of Jan to get things looking favorable as Cape said above. It is what it is. Merry Christmas my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yeah. Perhaps but if the GEFS is correct it will take Nearly the first half of Jan to get things looking favorable as Cape said above. It is what it is. Merry Christmas my friend! What are the accuracy figures past 8 days for the GEFS and the EPS in the past two years? Bah Humbug. Merry Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What are the accuracy figures past 8 days for the GEFS and the EPS in the past two years? Bah Humbug. Merry Christmas! Not great so if anything this is good news as the opposite might occur. Something like that. Hohoho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Not great so if anything this is good news as the opposite might occur. Something like that. Hohoho Yeah, here's hoping for a bizzaro world situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Loving the 276hr gfs coastal off the Delmarva that jumps to West of Philly by 282 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Loving the 276hr gfs coastal off the Delmarva that jumps to West of Philly by 282 lol Also loving that 462dM cold vortex Over East central Canada. That kind of deep cold is fascinating to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Also loving that 462dM cold vortex Over East central Canada. That kind of deep cold is fascinating to me Minus 40s just N of the US/Canada border and above 40s in this region. Gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Still like the time period and the signal. And H5 looks potent but wish it was leaning left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Minus 40s just N of the US/Canada border and above 40s in this region. Gradient. Yeah but at least it’s at the ready if mobilized. Of course it could stay put all season. If we are knocking on Feb door with no change and no measurable snow then it would be discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Yeah but at least it’s at the ready if mobilized. Of course it could stay put all season. If we are knocking on Feb door with no change and no measurable snow then it would be discouraging. Also this is an op run at LR and there is alot of indecision among ens members as to where the PV ends up...Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, back towards W Canada. TBD. I would take that location tho on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 @psuhoffman find me some analogs of what the eps and gefs are evolving into in the next 7-15 days. Lol. What a jacked up pattern. -PNA/++AO but is still lining up cold delivery (could be extremish cold) into the east. Hypothetically... if we get 3-4 separate shots of cold continental or even arctic air I think we can pull off an event before mid Jan. Def not a long track type of event as flow rippin and bucklin all over the mid latitudes. Just need choas to take over and get things lined up right. Ice, mixed, or even cold powder is possible. It won't come easy or be spotted from a distance but it does look like we're back in the game in early Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman find me some analogs of what the eps and gefs are evolving into in the next 7-15 days. Lol. What a jacked up pattern. -PNA/++AO but is still lining up cold delivery (could be extremish cold) into the east. Hypothetically... if we get 3-4 separate shots of cold continental or even arctic air I think we can pull off an event before mid Jan. Def not a long track type of event as flow rippin and bucklin all over the mid latitudes. Just need choas to take over and get things lined up right. Ice, mixed, or even cold powder is possible. It won't come easy or be spotted from a distance but it does look like we're back in the game in early Jan Amazing, just 2 days ago several here had punted the first 3 weeks of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Amazing, just 2 days ago several here had punted the first 3 weeks of January. Yea, I thought that was a little silly honestly. @leesburg 04 says it well. There's a big difference between big game hunting and simple winter wx tracking. Is there any sign of a big dog pattern? Nope, not even close. Are there signs of enough ingredients available for some winter wx? Yea, all guidance has the door open for our most common way of getting snow... jacked up imperfect pattern that may accidentally work out. What's saving us now is no sign of a SE ridge. Amplifying progressive flow should deliver multiple winter airmasses during early Jan. We just need some good luck. We've had a couple bad breaks already. Time for equilibrium to kick in and throw us a bone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 @Bob Chill merry Christmas. I don’t have time for a deep analysis but there aren’t any great analogs to what some runs are showing wrt the -pna,++AO and still cold. All the current ncep analogs had a SE ridge and were pretty crappy. So either this will be a really anomalous period or the guidance is flawed and expect more SE ridge as it gets closer It’s a pretty mixed bag where this pattern progresses too. Some of the analogs go on to crap winters (2002,1992). Others go on to decent or even great years after (2000,1979). Others are a mixed bag. But the common denominator is the NAO. They mostly remained flawed PAC side but the years that got some Atlantic blocking later improved. Years the NAO stayed positive sucked. Past resukts don’t always predict future outcomes so....just a quick rundown of how this pattern usually plays out and where it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 18z GFS has some serious lulz near the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Anyone glance at the HH GFS? Has a 936 low at the benchmark lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 18z gfs is on crack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 18z gfs is on crack And despite its ridiculous look it still manages to miss us denying even a weenie dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Yup - that looks like a gusty wind for us verbatim. Just another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Looks like the GFS 18z on the 25th wants to give us some overrunning on the 3rd and a monster Coastal storm to graze us on the 6th. Interesting to see if there will be any GEFS support for that..Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s been hitting the eggnog HARD between the FL snowicane and this beaut. Oh well, delivering plenty of holiday cheer on Christmas! Yeah, just misses us. Plenty of wind. Wish it was next week instead of later. Still plenty of time for a favorable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s been hitting the eggnog HARD between the FL snowicane and this beaut. Oh well, delivering plenty of holiday cheer on Christmas! Dude that is a whack pattern developing between Jan 3-8. Saw one run with the FL snowcane, another with a SLP in the western GOM dive SE and hit Jamaica, a bomb cyclone, a low 75 miles.east of Delmarva track WNW and end up west of Philly 6 hours later, etc. If there is going to be a convoluted surprise that may be the period. Like Bob said, doubt we will be tracking a particular threat....but something might pop under the radar in the short/mid range. Some fun solutions popping up tho. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 GEFS mean on the 6th.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I thought that was a little silly honestly. @leesburg 04 says it well. There's a big difference between big game hunting and simple winter wx tracking. Is there any sign of a big dog pattern? Nope, not even close. Are there signs of enough ingredients available for some winter wx? Yea, all guidance has the door open for our most common way of getting snow... jacked up imperfect pattern that may accidentally work out. What's saving us now is no sign of a SE ridge. Amplifying progressive flow should deliver multiple winter airmasses during early Jan. We just need some good luck. We've had a couple bad breaks already. Time for equilibrium to kick in and throw us a bone. Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 9 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time. Not sure I agree. There is the tendency for EC/SE ridging showing up on the ensembles in the LR. It's not a stationary/persistent feature on the means, but given the 500 mb pattern being advertised(+AO/+NAO/westward displaced EPAC ridge), it would not be surprising if it ends up more of a fixture than currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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