WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How is that even possible, lol I’d say because that low is so close. Move it East by 50 miles different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Like everything about it screams classic I95 snowstorm and it’s rain to Scranton. I guess maybe that primary low starts too far N and erodes the mid levels before the coastal, but damn. I thought we had a coastal that looked like this in late January 2017 with a very similar setup that did indeed end up being all rain. I may have the year wrong though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Ingredients are there, going to see many scenarios. I agree, best look we have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I thought we had a coastal that looked like this in late January 2017 with a very similar setup that did indeed end up being all rain. I may have the year wrong though. I forget what recent year it was, it may have been 2017 come to think of it , definitely one of the last 6 or 7 winters. The tracks were almost ideal , favoring snow, but the cold air was stale and the confluence never held. Not sure what the cause(s) were, but it lasted a good part of the winter. There were even issues far to the NE as well . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Well thankfully this is just day 10 and we don't have to overanalyze it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: 13 minutes ago, frd said: I forget what recent year it was, it may have been 2017 come to think of it , definitely one of the last 6 or 7 winters. The tracks were almost ideal , favoring snow, but the cold air was stale and the confluence never held. Not sure what the cause(s) were, but it lasted a good part of the winter. There were even issues far to the NE as well into New England as well. I thought we had a coastal that looked like this in late January 2017 with a very similar setup that did indeed end up being all rain. I may have the year wrong though. Monday January 23, 2017. It was the one year anniversary of the 2016 blizzard and there was moderate to heavy rain with fairly strong winds through the first half of the day. Far NW areas changed over to frozen (mainly sleet iirc) and got some minor accumulations. And also, yeah, I remember a NWS disco out of ME or New England with very "irritated sounding" wording about it being late January that year yet not being able to get much in the way of any snow. ETA: Could have sworn I was in banter... sorry about that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Eps isn’t there yet but trending the right way. Remember the Hudson Bay ridge look I posted wrt the 50/50. This is the h5 run to run change leading into the day 10 threat. This is exactly the trend we need. Lower the heights to our northeast and this becomes a classic snow look. After that the eps opens the door that the day 10 storm becomes a 50/50 for a threat later. Lots of possibilities with the current pattern progs. GEPS looked good day 10-15 also. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This look here day 13 actually fits the profile of our “positive AO big snowstorms”. Obviously we want a -AO. But when we scored snow with a +AO it was often in a look like this... Whatever happens with the day 10 threat the eps thinks that system migrated through the 50/50 region knocking down the ridge to our northeast. The fate of the day 10 seems to rest on the ability of some discreet wave before that to amplify just enough to knock down heights there ahead of the day 10 storm. A murkier proposition in the spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The fate of the day 10 seems to rest on the ability of some discreet wave before that to amplify just enough to knock down heights there ahead of the day 10 storm. A murkier proposition in the spread. Is this the area , ( the Southern reaches of the area ) that is prone to Atlantic wave breaking and deepening storm systems? If so, maybe the EPS has the correct idea and progression. Seems it has to amplify just enough, as you mentioned. Not too much or another outcome ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS is a tiny bit more chilly than the Euro for next weeks temps. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 No one is perfect, and I hardly ever post cranky's stuff , but we will see. Sounds to me he is expecting some re-alignment in the NH with the weather features, and then some sort of winter pattern emerging, aka. deep winter. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, HighStakes said: GFS is a tiny bit more chilly than the Euro for next weeks temps. Lol. Euro depiction of slightly above normal temps between day 7-12 is reasonable given its stale cold air trapped under a ridge. But we can snow in that profile...especially if we can fix the ridge issue to our northeast allowing the mid levels to torch ahead of the wave. It's cooling again day 15 either way. GFS is too cold in the long range...we know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 BTW wrt to the EPS, while the snow mean is unimpressive, there is a big spike just to our southwest day 14-15. A lot of members end day 15 about to blast us with a stj system, this time with cold locked in thanks to the lower heights to our northeast due to the storm day 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro has a big high in a great place but still rain The issue imo is still the west coast. No ridging per above, and you get this washed out trough on east coast with great low placement. We need that high shown here but with the PNA pumped up a bit. Atlantic has been fairly cooperative. Damn PAC and PNA have not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 34 minutes ago, frd said: Is this the area , ( the Southern reaches of the area ) that is prone to Atlantic wave breaking and deepening storm systems? If so, maybe the EPS has the correct idea and progression. Seems it has to amplify just enough, as you mentioned. Not too much or another outcome ? Last post for a while...have to get back to work This is the issue with the progression...EPS day 10 The timing of the ensembles is a little slower than the op but this shows the issue. The flow ahead of the trough is all out of the south. That is torching the mid levels. If we had some cold to work with in the mid's we could probably overcome the warmer surface temps...mix some cold down with a good track...but if we torch the mids and the surface...well its game over. So taking the 6z GFS that had snow as an example This wasnt perfect...it was still messy, the ridge would be better centered west not east of the Hudson Bay, but that 50/50 makes it work. Look at the flow now over us and to our northeast. Cutting off the southerly flow from torching us ahead of the trough. Plus it creates confluence to hold a high pressure in longer. This lead to the snowy solution on this run. The op euro though... That same feature is displaced where it can't help us and so the southerly flow torches us ahead of the system and there is no confluence to our north. It's close...but this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. So how can we get to the look we need.... So there the energy that will be the day 10 threat is coming onshore in the west. We need to get one of those vorts numbered to amplify significantly and into the 50/50 spot. What happens on the euro op, 1 amplifies but remains cut off from the NS flow so its too far south, 3 gets absorbed into the TPV lobe and up into Greenland...2 washes out completely and 4 does end up where we need it but doesn't amplify enough and is way too weak to do much good. Get 3 and 1 to phase and pull them up into the 50/50 domain and that works. Get 2 and 4 to phase and amplify...get 4 to amplify by itself. None of those solutions would do us any good for snow BEFORE the day 10 threat... the flow is way to suppressive, could help give northern New England a light event...but any of those combo's would knock down the ridge to our northeast, create confluence and shunt the southerly flow ahead of the wave from destroying our thermal profile. Hope that explains what you were asking. Back to real life... 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Great job today @psuhoffman. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hope that explains what you were asking. Back to real life... You must be a great teacher ! Well done, and thank you psu ! Love the numbered system And yes, it certainly does help explain things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 EPS WB 12Z Probability of 3 inches or More Through the 30th.....not very impressive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Bam WX: EPS continues with remarkable torch in long range 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 So, Feb = highest climo snow potential around these parts, and maybe a more pronounced Nino response is on the way. Get lucky with some fresh arctic air, any maybe we enter a period of multiple threats during our best month. There was a recent post today over in the NYC forum about increasing AAM and how it can reduce the tendency for a - EPO / -NAO. However, Don S chimed and brought over some neat stats regarding that connection. @donsutherland1 also stated the post about increasing AAM doesn't accurately depict the relationship between AAM , the EPO and the Nino state. You can check that post out yourself in the Jan discussion thread over on the NYC thread. Don always manages to find some cool weather statistics on just about every weather element, driver and indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I need to study about the - MVP, first I heard about this. Another wrinkle in my expectations. Not enough time in the day. So much data. Maybe Bob or psu know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Changes to the Day 10 event on GFS. Looks like a 50/50 and -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Gfs teasing us alot for the 24 -27 time frame. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Changes to the Day 10 event on GFS. Looks like a 50/50 and -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Get your skis shined up and grab a stick of juicy fruit - happy hour GFS is going to move ya! Looks good for our next weekend window, but I have to believe there is a way we can improve it? I’ll let the experts dissect it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: That’s some of the most redonculous blocking I’ve ever seen. All of Canada. Why it still manages to snow with a primary way west. I’d settle for just getting the 50/50 and have the storm stay under us. I like simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Been busy AF last few days and haven't really looked at anything in detail. @psuhoffman covered everything but I wanted to post something about the d10 window. Seems crazy that odds favor rain but they do for now so it is what it is. The 12z EPS qpf and snow meteos show just how low our odds are for now. This can change in a blink as it's far out there in time. Some of the rain solutions are surely ice but snowfall is meager considering near unanimous support for precip. QPF Snowfall This comparison will be something I'm watching closely this week. Especially after the 18z gfs showed a path to victory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Suffice it to say, the 18z GFS working out would change my outlook on the winter substantially. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Suffice it to say, the 18z GFS working out would change my outlook on the winter substantially. Scratch my last post. All in 18z gfs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Been busy AF last few days and haven't really looked at anything in detail. @psuhoffman covered everything but I wanted to post something about the d10 window. Seems crazy that odds favor rain but they do for now so it is what it is. The 12z EPS qpf and snow meteos show just how low our odds are for now. This can change in a blink as it's far out there in time. Some of the rain solutions are surely ice but snowfall is meager considering near unanimous support for precip. QPF Snowfall This comparison will be something I'm watching closely this week. Especially after the 18z gfs showed a path to victory As of now the eps favors the warmer solution. But it’s not a case where there may or may not be a storm. The storm is there just the eps favors too much ridging in front and torches the temps. But watch that change in a dime if a future run decides to phase the ocean storm next week with the NS and suddenly there is a 50/50. Or it suddenly decides the NS vort in Canada next week is going to bomb. So imo it’s one of these situations that looks bad and isn’t likely but could flip on a dime if just one thing breaks our way. Ironically the gfs and euro flipped positions in the last 48 hours. Wrt the eps there was a huge spike in snow just southwest day 15. Looking at the members there were several “incoming” storms at day 15. Day 16 was going to be big. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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