January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Only an OP but GFS doesn't have much to get excited about.

Seemed good enough to me.

Moved the right way with the day 11/12 threat.  It's closer to a good result than previous runs.  This run it dives a northern stream feature in and keys on that... there are 2 minor adjustments though that would make this setup work.  Either get rid of that NS feature and focus on the STJ one.  Or have it dig more.  

After that its setting up a good look at the end

Confluence locked in to our north, that wave is going to get forced under us.  

[cbmclean]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After a solid week of the MJO signal improving (moving towards a strong 7/8) today was the first day it took a step back, more towards a quick death in 7 then a recycle towards 6.  That is something to keep an eye on.  But even if it did recycle towards 6 so long as it progressed from there it might only be a brief relax in an overall cold period.  

Marked this post in my mind when we have our postmortem at the end.

[psuhoffman]

So if we can’t snow with these temps

and this precip for week 2.....

let the debate whether we are the Browns or Bengals begin...

 

 

[Ji]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So if we can’t snow with these temps

and this precip for week 2.....

let the debate whether we are the Browns or Bengals begin...

 

 

another 10 days of waiting. sun angle season will be here soon and Ian Trolling

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

another 10 days of waiting. sun angle season will be here soon and Ian Trolling

This is a typical Ji post, but it's not really all wrong. There was some hype about the second half of January being really good, but by second half of January, it seems more like the last week, if that, of January could be interesting. 10 days from now is already January 24. And that's if you are buying the 10-15 + day stuff again.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

This is a typical Ji post, but it's not really all wrong. There was some hype about the second half of January being really good, but by second half of January, it seems more like the last week, if that, of January could be interesting. 10 days from now is already January 24. And that's if you are buying the 10-15 + day stuff again.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the discussion was the opportunity to get into a better pattern was to start around the 20th with better opportunities later like the 24th on...this weekend chance seems to have thrown off some people's common sense. That said I'm not sure things still look good post 1/20 but still that was still early 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but the discussion was the opportunity to get into a better pattern was to start around the 20th with better opportunities later like the 24th on...this weekend chance seems to have thrown off some people's common sense. That said I'm not sure things still look good post 1/20 but still that was still early 

You're exactly right. This weekend was a "surprise" chance at something.  It was never a classic or good track. Just one of the ways we do flawed around here pretty regularly. The potentially longer window starts after this weekend and that has been the case since we caught wind of a change for the better. Expectations go through the roof the second an op shows a good snow event 5-10 days away. 

[osfan24]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

You're exactly right. This weekend was a "surprise" chance at something.  It was never a classic or good track. Just one of the ways we do flawed around here pretty regularly. The potentially longer window starts after this weekend and that has been the case since we caught wind of a change for the better. Expectations go through the roof the second an op shows a good snow event 5-10 days away. 

Yeah this weekend was just a bonus if it worked out. I'm not even a fan of that setup. They usually end up way worse in my actual yard than on the pretty maps. The flip to sleet always happens way sooner than progged and it's mostly a sleet/freezing rain event.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

another 10 days of waiting. sun angle season will be here soon and Ian Trolling

relax...I know the rug pull over the weekend storm hurts a bit, but honestly had the models never teased us with some kind of crazy thump snow from a storm cutting to Chicago we would be in a much better mood.  Nothing has actually failed yet except a setup that was never good from a longwave pattern POV to begin with.   (assuming we don't make a miraculous comeback on the weekend WAA wave).  

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

relax...I know the rug pull over the weekend storm hurts a bit, but honestly had the models never teased us with some kind of crazy thump snow from a storm cutting to Chicago we would be in a much better mood.  Nothing has actually failed yet except a setup that was never good from a longwave pattern POV to begin with.   (assuming we don't make a miraculous comeback on the weekend WAA wave).  

i think we get 3 or 4 good days a year of winter precip. Basically getting a good day of snow is the equivilant of waiting for Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Years. Just absurd how much we suck at snow...even where you live...you suck too. Euro 10 day looks good lol

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think we get 3 or 4 good days a year of winter precip. Basically getting a good day of snow is the equivilant of waiting for Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Years. Just absurd how much we suck at snow...even where you live...you suck too. Euro 10 day looks good lol

Euro is setting up a day 11/12 storm...no surprise that is when the GEPS/GEFS/EPS have said our next big chance at snow is.  Before that we would need the ridge axis to back off some out west for the threat next week...otherwise its a southeast coast threat.  

I am realistic about snow...or at least I try to be.  I got 7" last week and it stayed on the ground for 3 days.  I got to enjoy it several times with my kids.  If I can say 2 more similar events this winter... or one more good storm and a week of cold behind it to keep snow OTG...I will call this year a win no matter what the "number" says.  Bottom line would be I got a couple opportunities to play in the snow with my children and a week+ with snow OTG to enjoy the scenery.  Chasing a number we know statistically we are unlikely to reach 70% of the time is just a setup for...well being you.  

 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is setting up a day 11/12 storm...no surprise that is when the GEPS/GEFS/EPS have said our next big chance at snow is.  Before that we would need the ridge axis to back off some out west for the threat next week...otherwise its a southeast coast threat.  

I am realistic about snow...or at least I try to be.  I got 7" last week and it stayed on the ground for 3 days.  I got to enjoy it several times with my kids.  If I can say 2 more similar events this winter... or one more good storm and a week of cold behind it to keep snow OTG...I will call this year a win no matter what the "number" says.  Bottom line would be I got a couple opportunities to play in the snow with my children and a week+ with snow OTG to enjoy the scenery.  Chasing a number we know statistically we are unlikely to reach 70% of the time is just a setup for...well being you.  

 

yea i dont care about snow on the ground. I like the actual event and the pre event. Once that storm is over..its depressing. I really only  like snow when its falling and the day after a snowstorm when its still pure and the trees snow hasnt been blown  away. . after that..i could care less about it

[Ji]

bam wx said the EPS flipped to hot in the long  range

[psuhoffman]

Not a fan of todays EPS.  Slightly degraded everything.  It's frustratingly close to good but each discreet event took a wrong turn.  The weekend has been handled in detail.  It moved towards squashing any hope of a system next week.  And now trended towards the op GFS idea of sliding too much ridging into the east and cutting the day 11/12 storm.  Snow mean took a major cut reflecting these changes.  The overall longwave pattern hasn't changed much...but you can't see the smaller details that will determine the fate of each specific threat from range and as they have come into closer range the warts start to show.  As of right now, this this run, there were too many warts on each threat window.  Still leaves us at a good look day 15.  The good news is each threat is "close" enough that small adjustments (and adjustments will happen) could put us back into a good spot for each one.  

[Ji]

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

bam wx said the EPS flipped to hot in the long  range

That is kind of an exaggeration.  It flipped from extremely cold to kinda meh.  Next week is still very cold...but bone dry.  If the EPS is right there is no chance of any precip from Sunday to the following weekend.  That is where the problems start...its shifting the ridging up top too far southeast...instead of an EPO ridge its centered across central and eastern Canada cutting off the cold air source and creating too much ridging in the northeast for storms to possibly cut.  It's not an awful look and we have snowed with some luck in such a pattern...but its not the really good look for that period of a few runs ago.  After that it starts to get back to the idea of an eastern trough...but even then its more muted and the ridging up top is weaker.   It was a disappointing run IMO.  I wont deny it.  But its not a total disaster either.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

 

I can't keep track of who is saying "cold" and who is saying "warm".  I swore a little while ago someone was posting BAMWX stuff saying it was going to get cold and snowy.  And just 24 hours ago twitter was lit up with "here it comes, cold/snow" posts and suddenly its the opposite.  Don't get me wrong todays 12z runs were less than inspiring, but they were just one run, and werent a dumpster fire...just a step in the wrong direction.  If we hadn't had such good looks recently we would think todays runs were great.  Don't get me wrong its important to change with new information.  I have changed my mind a couple times this winter...but each time it took a week of trending across different sources of information, not a single run.  That is crazy.  

[Weather Will]

EPS isn't seeing much snow chances until the last week of January on this run.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can't keep track of who is saying "cold" and who is saying "warm".  I swore a little while ago someone was posting BAMWX stuff saying it was going to get cold and snowy.  And just 24 hours ago twitter was lit up with "here it comes, cold/snow" posts and suddenly its the opposite.  Don't get me wrong todays 12z runs were less than inspiring, but they were just one run, and werent a dumpster fire...just a step in the wrong direction.  If we hadn't had such good looks recently we would think todays runs were great.  Don't get me wrong its important to change with new information.  I have changed my mind a couple times this winter...but each time it took a week of trending across different sources of information, not a single run.  That is crazy.  

i think they are using "differences" model maps to justify their take that they are going for  a Feb. they have already busted bad this winter and is trying   to save face. The maps they show arent as bad as the EPS runs were.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can't keep track of who is saying "cold" and who is saying "warm".  I swore a little while ago someone was posting BAMWX stuff saying it was going to get cold and snowy.  And just 24 hours ago twitter was lit up with "here it comes, cold/snow" posts and suddenly its the opposite.  Don't get me wrong todays 12z runs were less than inspiring, but they were just one run, and werent a dumpster fire...just a step in the wrong direction.  If we hadn't had such good looks recently we would think todays runs were great.  Don't get me wrong its important to change with new information.  I have changed my mind a couple times this winter...but each time it took a week of trending across different sources of information, not a single run.  That is crazy.  

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times!  I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February.  OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event.  But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS).  The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier.  Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel.  Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond.  Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows.  But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

[tombo82685]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think they are using "differences" model maps to justify their take that they are going for  a Feb. they have already busted bad this winter and is trying   to save face. The maps they show arent as bad as the EPS runs were.

The map they posted is run to run change from model cycle. Since eps lost the epo it was warmer but the 850 temp anom was below normal 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think they are using "differences" model maps to justify their take that they are going for  a Feb. they have already busted bad this winter and is trying   to save face. The maps they show arent as bad as the EPS runs were.

At the end of the day we manage to fail on this specific run with a 10 day period of below normal temps and near normal precip... but its because hidding within that is a 7 day period of bone dry followed by a 24 hour warm up when all the precip comes...lol

On the other hand...back off the ridging a little bit...and suddenly there are 2 legit threats with a relatively minor adjustment.  

 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Mersky said:

BAMWX called for a cold and snowy december. I really could careless what they have to say going forward

Exactly...we should only listen to forecasters who are perfect and never get anything wrong!

[Scraff]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly...we should only listen to forecasters who are perfect and never get anything wrong!

That’s why I put all money in on Judah Cohen.......said nobody ever! Damn him and his Siberian snow cover crap. 

[psuhoffman]

12z GEPS was a good run. 

[Ji]

if this storm here actually happens like this---i think winter will be over

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly right. A northern stream shortwave/low draws mild air on return flow. Thing is... models can't get the NS right 3-5 days in advance. Last thing I'm worried about on fantasy op panels is a NS shortwave. It may end up happening but no f'n way the gfs just "figured it out"

I was having fun with that but one thing worth mentioning. It’s low odds. It’s not the most likely outcome. But there are enough absolute snow bombs with that threat day 11-12 on the GEFS/GEPS/EPS that while the odds do not favor snow right now, there is the chance that could be a big storm if it breaks right. Being cold enough seems the largest obstacle att. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

if this storm here actually happens like this---i think winter will be over

Dude if you go out to the midwest in a hot air balloon at about 6,000 feet and blow facing east really hard you might be able to reel this one in. 

[psuhoffman]

Strengthen the western ridge or shift it east some...weaken or shift the eastern one west, and you end up with the upper low where we want it. Not a big change at day 12. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill looking at h5, slp anomalies, precip, temps, I expected to see a lot of hits on 18z gefs...but no. A couple but when I saw the lackluster snow mean I checked out the members. A lot of coastal scrapers or OTS. A couple hits. But the majority that come up are perfect track rain storms according to the members. Odd. I guess a 36 degree rainstorm would still show up as a “below normal day” becauss we suck that much.  Just not the profile of a rainstorm. 

Seriously this is a rain look now...I have a hard time buying that