January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Not worried about dry. Give me a cold pattern and the snow will eventually come....and stay.

I will say this, if it’s really cold it lowers how much snow I need to be happy. 1977, for example, was only about 50% of normal snowfall here but it was so crazy cold all the little 2-4” snowfalls built up to a 10” snowpack and there was snowcover for over a month straight. Sign me up for that.  On the other hand if it’s a warm pattern and it’s going to melt like it’s July it needs to be a bigger event so it’s at least not gone within 24 hours for me to feel as content.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

NWS is not raising the threat level or confidence yet at 5pm

They’re not?  Wait did you mean 5pm today, or tomorrow, or Wednesday, or Thursday, or Friday???

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No biggie. Euro weeklies are cold to very cold in early Feb and AN qpf. We should be over climo by Valentine's day 

EPS has been very consistent. GEPS was good too. One gefs run doesn’t phase me. And I’m probably being greedy here but wouldn’t it be nice to score a couple hits before Feb and roll into our snowiest month pretty much already having achieved our goal and be able to just relax and take anything that comes as icing on the cake?  No more needing a homerun in the bottom of the 9th crap! 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Not worried about dry. Give me a cold pattern and the snow will eventually come....and stay.

This is generally my feeling. Some say bring the qpf and take their chances on cold. Ofc this is completely an IMBY game, and if ya live on the coastal plain, having an antecedent cold air mass in place is usually key to getting a legit snow event.

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They’re not?  Wait did you mean 5pm today, or tomorrow, or Wednesday, or Thursday, or Friday???

Sorry i put this in the wrong thread.  The map was issued at 5pm today for the Saturday threat.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

This is generally my feeling. Some say bring the qpf and take their chances on cold. Ofc this is completely an IMBY game, and if ya live on the coastal plain, having and antecedent cold air mass in place is usually key to getting a legit snow event.

Everywhere in our region except the places like Snowshoe Canaan and Deep Creek temps are more correlated with snow than precip. That is even more true on the coastal plain than west of the fall line. Up here on Parr’s Ridge it’s a closer call but still temps.  

(On a weekly bases, not necessarily daily as obviously you need precip to be snowing). 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Sorry i put this in the wrong thread.  The map was issued at 5pm today for the Saturday threat.

That wasn’t my point. I was just saying it’s still a looooooong way out there. NWS is conservative. 

[midatlanticweather]

42 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NWS is not raising the threat level or confidence yet at 5pm

 

[Baltimorewx]

37 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Sorry i put this in the wrong thread.  The map was issued at 5pm today for the Saturday threat.

They’re not gonna increase a threat above slight 5 days out unless the blizzards of 2010 are coming...

[AdamHLG]

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

They’re not gonna increase a threat above slight 5 days out unless the blizzards of 2010 are coming...

We only do that here.  For every threat.   :--) 

[Weather Will]

12 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I missed that they raised the confidence level on the Day 6 timeframe.  Thanks fir pointing it out.  I like the concept of these maps but there should be a better way to illustrate it.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I will say this, if it’s really cold it lowers how much snow I need to be happy. 1977, for example, was only about 50% of normal snowfall here but it was so crazy cold all the little 2-4” snowfalls built up to a 10” snowpack and there was snowcover for over a month straight. Sign me up for that.  On the other hand if it’s a warm pattern and it’s going to melt like it’s July it needs to be a bigger event so it’s at least not gone within 24 hours for me to feel as content.  

I feel the same way.  I enjoy winter and the look of it.  Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows.  Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah I agree. Get some snow cover and it can get as cold and dry as it wants

[frd]

A recent post from bluewave. He made a good point about the MJO and the Nino response. 

 <<<<<<

Perhaps this extreme MJO event can jump-start the El Niño. We are getting a decent WWB event unfolding now in the Pacific. I would like to see the northern branch stop competing with the southern stream. A strengthening El Niño could allow the STJ to take over with less  interference from disturbances moving through the Great Lakes.

 

>>>>>>>

 

 

[WxUSAF]

I hope I’m sufficiently cold 

 

[yoda]

00z GFS laughs at us again for next weekend... coastal comes... but no cold air

[Solution Man]

That 1036 High retreated off to the East

[showmethesnow]

I like what we are generally seeing in the longer ranges on the EPS and GEFS as it does have potential. But we will probably be dependent on well timed systems and/or episodes of some sort of blocking in the N Atlantic to realize this potential. Otherwise we are running the risk of progressive and suppressed systems. On the other hand we are seeing an active southern stream that could very well come into play as well. I would definitely roll the dice on what we are seeing now as there is very good upside if things break right for us. And it sure beats what we were looking at just a few weeks ago.

[frd]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Otherwise we are running the risk of progressive and suppressed systems.

Some feel the MJO help only gives us a limited window later this month. Some pros feel the MJO will not lead to a month long period of cold and snow, that goes to the end of Feb. . Without a better NAM state an active STJ may only deliver wet versus white. Progressive systems like you say or even cutters. 

I wonder though the lag effect regarding the MJO and how that plays out for mid Feb.    

I am not sure those who state winter might be over after the first week of Feb is accurate. I also know the MJO does not control 100 % of the weather outcome here.

These folks with an early winter ending are going against the CFS and the weeklies. But, to be honest, I place no real value in either model due to past performance issues. Even consensus means very little, case in point last year.   We can still lose the favorable pattern they are portraying , as it has happened many times the past two winters. 

I bring you this post by snowy over at 33 , it is any interesting read. And for the record I am delivering information, I have no real stance or feeling about where we go down the road.  It is still very complex and hard to call. I present both good and bad views on the snow and cold outlook. 

One option is cold and snow potential until early Feb and then moderation and then one last period of winter in late Feb to early March. 

Here is snowy's post:

,,,,,

You can’t deny the pattern will be good for the Eastern US for the last two weeks of January, based on the strong MJO pass over Phase 7-8:

I don’t see the same support for February, the MJO basically goes dark again after a counteracting opposite MJO signal passes over Maritime Continent and to a lesser extent, the Pacific.

 

The Indian Ocean dominant base state is re-established by the latest EC-46.

 

 

CFS still plays the weaker Early February card, and perhaps a better late February (next GWO cycle?).

 

But with an uncooperative stratosphere and NAM, I can’t see a cold risk sustained for a month, based upon one MJO pass. I’d enjoy the rest of January while it lasts IMO  

 

It should be good.

>>>

 

 

 

[jaydreb]

GEFS still says it’s going to be snowy.  Someone should tell it’s Op member.  

 

[ryanconway63]

GFS picking up on snow showers in the region for Tuesday?  Is this a clipper?

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Some feel the MJO help only gives us a limited window later this month. Some pros feel the MJO will not lead to a month long period of cold and snow, that goes to the end of Feb. . Without a better NAM state an active STJ may only deliver wet versus white. Progressive systems like you say or even cutters. 

I wonder though the lag effect regarding the MJO and how that plays out for mid Feb.    

I am not sure those who state winter might be over after the first week of Feb is accurate. I also know the MJO does not control 100 % of the weather outcome here.

These folks with an early winter ending are going against the CFS and the weeklies. But, to be honest, I place no real value in either model due to past performance issues. Even consensus means very little, case in point last year.   We can still lose the favorable pattern they are portraying , as it has happened many times the past two winters. 

I bring you this post by snowy over at 33 , it is any interesting read. And for the record I am delivering information, I have no real stance or feeling about where we go down the road.  It is still very complex and hard to call. I present both good and bad views on the snow and cold outlook. 

One option is cold and snow potential until early Feb and then moderation and then one last period of winter in late Feb to early March. 

Here is snowy's post:

,,,,,

You can’t deny the pattern will be good for the Eastern US for the last two weeks of January, based on the strong MJO pass over Phase 7-8:

I don’t see the same support for February, the MJO basically goes dark again after a counteracting opposite MJO signal passes over Maritime Continent and to a lesser extent, the Pacific.

 

The Indian Ocean dominant base state is re-established by the latest EC-46.

 

 

CFS still plays the weaker Early February card, and perhaps a better late February (next GWO cycle?).

 

But with an uncooperative stratosphere and NAM, I can’t see a cold risk sustained for a month, based upon one MJO pass. I’d enjoy the rest of January while it lasts IMO  

 

It should be good.

>>>

 

 

 

Trends in the MJO towards a null phase are concerning to me.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Trends in the MJO towards a null phase are concerning to me.

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Trends in the MJO towards a null phase are concerning to me.

The phase it's in when it heads for the COD is important. A COD visit after going into phase 8/1 is different than it dying after being in the unfavorable ones. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS still says it’s going to be snowy.  Someone should tell it’s Op member.  

The op gfs has a completely different pattern evolution next week than the GEFS/GEPS/EPS.  Old runs, the 12z is "coming around" and if it werent for really bad timing with the lakes low probably would be a snowstorm... but the difference is how they have been handling the ridging across Canada.  

ALL guidance agrees that early next week we get a strong ridge near Hudson bay in conjunction with a western ridge slightly too far east...a ridge near Hudson would be perfect if we had a -PNA (but of course as soon as we need a western trough it abandons us LOL) but with a western ridge centered east of the perfect and a strong ridge near Hudson that is a very suppressive look and a great look for a possible SE snowstorm.  I would love the look next week if I was on the outer banks.  

After that the op GFS was alone in sliding the whole of the ridge near Hudson Bay into New England.  The rest of guidance breaks a piece off but the main ridge hangs back and remains anchored near Hudson Bay.  The op GFS ends up redeveloping a new Ridge in western Canada but that creates a weakness between the ridge in the northeast and the one in the west for a trough to amplify to our west

op GFS from 6z.  I highlighted the features I mentioned.

All other guidance agrees with the GEFS look for this same time

Hence the EPS/GEFS/GEPS all agree on a risk of a snowstorm in the day 10-15 period while the op GFS had a warm solution.  

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

Can't ask for a better signal at long range day 8-15

EPS surface temps

EPS 850

EPS mean Precip 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Some feel the MJO help only gives us a limited window later this month. Some pros feel the MJO will not lead to a month long period of cold and snow, that goes to the end of Feb. . Without a better NAM state an active STJ may only deliver wet versus white. Progressive systems like you say or even cutters. 

I wonder though the lag effect regarding the MJO and how that plays out for mid Feb.    

I am not sure those who state winter might be over after the first week of Feb is accurate. I also know the MJO does not control 100 % of the weather outcome here.

These folks with an early winter ending are going against the CFS and the weeklies. But, to be honest, I place no real value in either model due to past performance issues. Even consensus means very little, case in point last year.   We can still lose the favorable pattern they are portraying , as it has happened many times the past two winters. 

I bring you this post by snowy over at 33 , it is any interesting read. And for the record I am delivering information, I have no real stance or feeling about where we go down the road.  It is still very complex and hard to call. I present both good and bad views on the snow and cold outlook. 

One option is cold and snow potential until early Feb and then moderation and then one last period of winter in late Feb to early March. 

Here is snowy's post:

,,,,,

You can’t deny the pattern will be good for the Eastern US for the last two weeks of January, based on the strong MJO pass over Phase 7-8:

I don’t see the same support for February, the MJO basically goes dark again after a counteracting opposite MJO signal passes over Maritime Continent and to a lesser extent, the Pacific.

 

The Indian Ocean dominant base state is re-established by the latest EC-46.

 

 

CFS still plays the weaker Early February card, and perhaps a better late February (next GWO cycle?).

 

But with an uncooperative stratosphere and NAM, I can’t see a cold risk sustained for a month, based upon one MJO pass. I’d enjoy the rest of January while it lasts IMO  

 

It should be good.

>>>

 

 

 

Couple things... I thought Snowy was calling for a cold/snowy second half of winter...did he change his mind on that?

But more importantly, not sure I get what their point is wrt the IO base state.  It is true that a wave near the dateline is "better" but a phase 2/3 in February is a cold look also.  

So not sure what that was about...

[osfan24]

Only an OP but GFS doesn't have much to get excited about.

[Allsnow]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Couple things... I thought Snowy was calling for a cold/snowy second half of winter...did he change his mind on that?

But more importantly, not sure I get what their point is wrt the IO base state.  It is true that a wave near the dateline is "better" but a phase 2/3 in February is a cold look also.  

So not sure what that was about...

The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier 

[psuhoffman]

After a solid week of the MJO signal improving (moving towards a strong 7/8) today was the first day it took a step back, more towards a quick death in 7 then a recycle towards 6.  That is something to keep an eye on.  But even if it did recycle towards 6 so long as it progressed from there it might only be a brief relax in an overall cold period.