ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro is very close to a monster for next week. Not to look past the event for Saturday but Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 EPS not all that enthused about the day 9/10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro says It might be time for a beach chase next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal. Wonder if it has to do with how it is handling this weekends storm. Maybe amped up weekend is causing next week fits on the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal. boy i hope we dont go through another weenie dream period without a snowstorm..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: boy i hope we dont go through another weenie dream period without a snowstorm..... This is not a dream period imo. Storms will not come easy nor easily be all snow. It's a good pattern during primetime but it's several levels below a really good winter wx pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Euro is very close to a monster for next week. Not to look past the event for Saturday but Wow. 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS not all that enthused about the day 9/10 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 You rarely see mean 850 anoms this cold d15 on the EPS. Very impressive panel from far out in time. Temps could be very friendly after this reshuffle settles down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You rarely see mean 850 anoms this cold d15 on the EPS. Very impressive panel from far out in time. Temps could be very friendly after this reshuffle settles down. You LOVE to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @Ji Here's our long track coastal 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is not a dream period imo. Storms will not come easy nor easily be all snow. It's a good pattern during primetime but it's several levels below a really good winter wx pattern. I’m a little more optimistic maybe but not over any one threat. I agree this isn’t the look where we have one storm with a high probability. But we seem to be facing the potential for a prolonged pattern that includes a favorable east based epo ridge/block, an arctic dump into the EASTERN US, and an active southern stream. If that has any legs at all we will have multiple opportunities and the odds of abject failure would take Cleveland Browns level ineptitude. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @Bob Chill EPS REALLY likes the day 10-15 period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill EPS REALLY likes the day 10-15 period.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m a little more optimistic maybe but not over any one threat. I agree this isn’t the look where we have one storm with a high probability. But we seem to be facing the potential for a prolonged pattern that includes a favorable east based epo ridge/block, an arctic dump into the EASTERN US, and an active southern stream. If that has any legs at all we will have multiple opportunities and the odds of abject failure would take Cleveland Browns level ineptitude. That's the point I was trying to make. This isn't a Feb 10 or Jan 16 look where you just drool over the mean pattern and it's a matter of time before a miller A hits you. We could fail next weekend and blank out the next week and STILL be staring at multiple chances in the near future. That's a very good place to be. I hate discrete windows where if you miss out it could be days/weeks/months before another chance rolls along. The upcoming period looks far better than that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's the point I was trying to make. This isn't a Feb 10 or Jan 16 look where you just drool over the mean pattern and it's a matter of time before a miller A hits you. We could fail next weekend and blank out the next week and STILL be staring at multiple chances in the near future. That's a very good place to be. I hate discrete windows where if you miss out it could be days/weeks/months before another chance rolls along. The upcoming period looks far better than that. I agree. If you get some luck...this kind of pattern can actually be better from an "excitement" POV. Obviously 2010 was the exception but that was a once in a lifetime thing... most big blocking patterns don't go down that way. The double edged sword, and I know you know this... with a big arse NAO block is that we need the pattern to start to break down to hit a big storm...and then usually that means soon after we warm up and have to wait for a reshuffle. Often a big block will recycle and give another shot later but its often not right away. This pattern could throw opportunities at us rapid fire if we get the stj going and the trough axis aligns right. So while the chances of a hit with any one storm aren't as high...this could offer more sustained entertainment in here. See 2014/2015... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 SWEET 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Weeklies = Well, looks good to me ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Ha ha ... funny Ryan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Update from Don S courtesy 33 : <<<< Late afternoon thoughts... 1. Yesterday, the MJO reached Phase 5 at amplitude of 2.430 (a January record for Phase 5). 2. Historically, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8 at amplitude of 1.000 or above following its being in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. 3. The idea of a pattern change featuring a trough in the means in the East remains on track. 15-day Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO peaks in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period: >>>> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 +FT , looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Jan 25 2020 snowstorm....20 years later. Book it! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Jan 25 2020 snowstorm....20 years later . Book it! GFS looks so odd on the set up! Let's hope for a better look as time passes. Seems we have a lot of potential.. typical caveats on timing, cold, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Find me a better D15+ fantasy op run... lol. Wow 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Find me a better D15+ fantasy op run... lol. Wow 18z Gefs goes suppression in the long range. Bone dry after the weekend storm through the end of the run. That is the most likely way we fail if we don’t snow. One run doesn’t worry me but we don’t want too much of a good thing. Day 8–6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z Gefs goes suppression in the long range. Bone dry after the weekend storm through the end of the run. That is the most likely way we fail if we don’t snow. One run doesn’t worry me but we don’t want too much of a good thing. Day 8–6 No biggie. Euro weeklies are cold to very cold in early Feb and AN qpf. We should be over climo by Valentine's day 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Not worried about dry. Give me a cold pattern and the snow will eventually come....and stay. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Luckily the GFS depiction of the baroclinic zone being in the vicinity of Bermuda is probably not correct lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Luckily the GFS depiction of the baroclinic zone being in the vicinity of Bermuda is probably not correct lol. Yea I should hit the “doesn’t bother me” harder. Just saying that one run was “extra” as my students would say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 NWS is not raising the threat level or confidence yet at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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