psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Last 3 GGEM runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Last 3 GGEM runs If the trend is our friend, the next jump south would have us worried about too much of a good thing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: If the trend is our friend, the next jump south would have us worried about too much of a good thing lol. Nah, get me in that 8" bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. Not sure why when this is trending in a good direction, and could have 3-6" upside when all is said and done, wit ha nice saturday morning scene nontheless 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. See below 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat. Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west. But its damn close to a big storm for that range. Just need a slight adjustment. 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat. Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west. But its damn close to a big storm for that range. Just need a slight adjustment. Will be awaiting for the afternoon EPS with bated breathe. I am hoping for a more favorable West Based NAO. If so, might be tracking at long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I told family, friends and co-workers that last Tuesday's snow might be the only one of the winter. I hope I get shamed mercilessly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. PSU touched on it up above. It is REALLY close to big hit here. Definitely worth watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. It's there on all guidance yes. They all agree that a piece of the block in Canada will split and dive southeast and create some ridging a bit too far south than we would want for a short time. But how that plays out isnt' all hostile like the GFS op. The GFS really went crazy with that ridge and allowed the next wave to dig in and cut off to our west. That said...even with everything going wrong it still ended up only 100 miles from a big coastal storm. An inland runner at day 11 is not that big a deal. There are lots of options how that plays out...the EPS has quite a few where that ridge actually acts to suppress a system to our south...and a few big hits in that range. It's undecided how that ridge interacts with the other players. It depends on how strong a piece dives into the northeast vs remains up in Canada. More ridging "behind" that wave instead of in front and suddenly we have a 980 low off Ocean City instead of over Annapolis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. Why look at a storm 11 days away when the models are jumping all over the place on this first one? There is very little chance they have the second storm even close to right yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 pssst, banter in banter thread. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 LOL, c’mon guys. I was throwing shade on people who were downplaying this storm waiting on a better one. No way we should ever look pst a threat especially the type that is as reliable as anything we have for delivering winter weather. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Truly am pretty busy though. Seriously, any gefs output available yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z GEFS solid. Supportive of the OP. I’ll let the experts break it down. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Not out yet on PSU but I can’t wait to see the low positions on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 GEFS is a marked improvement for anyone north of I-66. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS has a dryslot, probably due to down-sloping, across VA but I would have to look at the exact wind flow to see. But that kind of dryslot, while possible, is dependent on the exact wind trajectory to be correct. The lighter precip rates also negatively impact the thermal profile as less mixing out of the warm layer. The result is ugly there...but that is not the kind of meso scale feature the GFS is going to get right at this range so don't worry, the larger more important factors all broke our way this run. Yeah.. I know! But we have been screwed like this before, so I cannot completely ignore it! I do agree that the details are far from being figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looks good to me and room to improve... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks good to me and room to improve... Wow that’s remarkable agreement for 120 hrs out. I think the good news is, that this is only 72-84 out from developing in the southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 What a weenie run... lol 4 1 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: What a weenie run... lol I love when you start seeing more blues and pink South of us versus North, a sure indication better times are a coming. I see a few of those solutions here, hopefully more in the days to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 So, does this appear to get washed out with rain? I TT isn’t working at the moment, and i just don’t like pivotal for too much... Some of those appear to give the whole area (Including Central[ish] VA some snow, which is nice. It also seems the rain following it (if any) may dry up or collect holes before it reaches this far east(?) I just don’t want it to be washed away because that would be an unfortunate start to a week, (A possibly very busy one!) Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What a weenie run... lol We all know p12 is reality of what will happen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: We all know p12 is reality of what will happen... From the Southeast Forum here , P4 will probably be the EPS Mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What a weenie run... lol Geez. All but 2 have more than 2 inches IMBY. I would love for some of this to fall on a weekday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Cobb data from the 12Z GFS run. Huge drop in surface temps from previous runs: DCA 200118/1100Z 119 16006KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14007KT 27.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.216 2:1| 0.6|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.28 11| 89| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.5F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.229 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.50 13| 87| 0 200118/2100Z 129 17012KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 IAD 200118/1000Z 118 15007KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14008KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 15009KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16013KT 27.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.152 7:1| 0.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.24 0| 96| 4 200118/1800Z 126 18012KT 30.3F SNPL 2:1| 0.4|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.204 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.44 34| 66| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19012KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100 BWI 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.0F SNPL 7:1| 2.6|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.374 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.57 85| 15| 0 200118/2100Z 129 18011KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.90 0| 0|100 MRB 200118/0900Z 117 15009KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1000Z 118 15011KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14011KT 24.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14012KT 24.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16015KT 26.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.171 10:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.37 3| 97| 0 200118/1800Z 126 17012KT 27.9F SNPL 6:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.233 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.60 53| 47| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19010KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.62 0| 0|100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Guidance finally coming around to reality for this event. 1040 high in the right place with insitu damming will yield a more entrenched airmass. Models, particularly the globals are almost always underdone and or too aggressive on eroding this feature out. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @Bob Chill we can see both options for the potential stj system next week on the gefs. The GFS op dives the majority of the canadien ridge into the northeast. The ridge rebuilding west of Hudson Bay isn’t strong enough yet so the trough amplifies in the weakness to our west. But on the GEFS both options show. There is clearly two ridges there. If the one west of Hudson is stronger than whatever dives across to our north we likely get the coastal solution. If the ridge in the northeast is more dominant the system likely amplifies to our west. Gefs leans coastal. Eps was split. Too soon. Won’t be out last shot in this pattern it looks like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Low position keeps improving on gefs for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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