psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman if we aren't going to have a -ao/nao, the current d15 mean h5 across all ens is the next best thing imo. Feb 2015 was mostly northern stream. Most of 13/14 was northern stream except the Feb storm. Current look is like 2014/15 + southern stream. I can't really recall any winter in the past 15 years that had a similar hemispheric lw pattern Agree with this. I’m not totally sure what happens up top though. It’s a sudden flip to blocking then a sudden flip back although with a perfect epo ridge. But that’s two sudden high latitude reversals in a week. Volatile to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This is pretty happy hour-ish. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 We'll have to wait and see if it's right but week 3 on CFS weeklies looks exactly like d15 on the ens. Shows a +preip anomaly along the east coast as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If anything the gefs is trending too strong with the blocking next week. Most runs suppress the system after the weekend one into the southeast. Too much ridging in Canada forces the trough axis southeast of us. Still likely to set up a threat as it relaxes later in the week. That was my biggest concern in the long range with all of that blocking on the models. Obviously way too far out there to blow a gasket yet. But something to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 After weeks of butt ugly analogs...some interesting ones showing up now... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 One thing is for sure: The pattern will change sometime this week, and it will possibly get quite cold along with many snow chances. This looks like a 3-4 week deal and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: After weeks of butt ugly analogs...some interesting ones showing up now... Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen. I loved the 06 storm. 05-06 would have been a total dud without it. I remember not needing a jacket the next day. I'd have to look it up but my brain remembers 15" in my yard and it was not high ratio snow. Mashed potatoes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I loved the 06 storm. 05-06 would have been a total dud without it. I remember not needing a jacket the next day. I'd have to look it up but my brain remembers 15" in my yard and it was not high ratio snow. Mashed potatoes 100% mashed potatoes. Almost back breaking snow trying to shovel the next morning. I had ~20" NW of 95. I was in the heart of that band for hours. We hit 4"/hr between 115-215AM that night. Thundersnow woke up my dad, who then woke me up, which lead to us staying up all night watching and taking measurements. Great father and son moment. What a great memory. Edit: Sorry for going a bit off topic. Those analogs are very much conducive for wintry weather. Ridge over the top with mean trough in the east, EPO ridge in place, and low anomalies where the Aleutian low is parked. There's also a hint of low anomalies off the Pac/Baja coast. Likely some result of southern stream influence judging by the buckling heights out there. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm cherry picking but just wanted to show there's a couple Eps members that want to transfer pretty far south like this one ...its a long shot but interesting possiblity. When you say 'a couple' do you literally mean 2? Are there a few that redevelop off the VA Capes or Delmarva? And did you notice an increase in faster/farther s redevelopment on the individuals vs 12z? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Maybe 4 but Eps ends at 144 so can't see past that hr. on individuals. And the 2 biggest takeaways I saw are a significant 6-8mb drop in mean primary low strength and much colder 2m temps . yeah...much better CAD signal....stronger high that holds on longer. The clown maps are misleading I think because it slowed things down just a bit and the run ends at 144...as you noted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Don’t think the initial cad will be the issue. Might affect the duration, but how much precip will we get while the gettin is good is the question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: After weeks of butt ugly analogs...some interesting ones showing up now... There are some frigid periods around several of those dates. 1961, 1981, 1985 and 2009 all had below-zero weather in my area within a couple of days of the ones listed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WVclimo said: There are some frigid periods around several of those dates. 1961, 1981, 1985 and 2009 all had below-zero weather in my area within a couple of days of the ones listed. It's a good setup for a good cold shot. D9-10 850s on the eps were -10C. Pretty big departure for that far out in time. If we have a persistent -epo like the ens want us to believe... we could get quite a few cold shots. Quite the turnaround from the last 6 weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Northern stream creating more confluence on the 0z gfs later this week. Improvement starts early and by hr84 it's obvious 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Northern stream creating more confluence in the 0z gfs later this week. Improvement starts early and by hr84 it's obvious Stronger high as well pressing down. Better CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS is a step in the right direction. Snow in MD at 126. Sleet in DC/NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Stronger high as well pressing down. Better CAD. Not going to matter. Storm is slower and weaker this run. We need precip in here as fast as possible. If the storm ,keeps slowing down we'll need incremental improvements north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not going to matter. Storm is slower and weaker this run. We need precip in here as fast as possible. If the storm ,keeps slowing down we'll need incremental improvements north of us Heck of a storm for ski resorts of VT, NH, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Heck of a storm for ski resorts of VT, NH, etc. My guess is if the warm front hits us it will be mostly or all frozen before dry slot and rain. That's our typical climo for this general setup. How much qpf falls is a question. These parts of a storm generally don't drop more than .5 qpf when the low tracks so far west. The juicy cad tracks are up the apps. This one is almost certainly tracking further west than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 My gosh do we suck at snowhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011300&fh=318 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Really nice GEFS run at 0z. I thought it improved for next weekend and the period afterwards. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen. I lived 30 miles NW of NYC Along the Hudson River in ’06. 2/9/06 was an UNREAL storm. 20+‘degree temp drop and almost a foot of snow in mere hours. Insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 EURO OZ WB fir MLK weekend. Improved this run. Would also note that 19 of the 50 EPS Members have nice hits for the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: EURO OZ WB fir MLK weekend. Improved this run. Would also note that 19 of the 50 EPS Members have nice hits for the weekend. Hopefully whatever this is MLK is an appetizer for the main course as met winter is half over. Something needs to crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 45 minutes ago, Weather Will said: EURO OZ WB fir MLK weekend. Improved this run. Would also note that 19 of the 50 EPS Members have nice hits for the weekend. Not that it means much but I would probably favor a ground truth more so towards the Kuchera. Never been a big fan of the ground depth maps as they quite often (read most of the time into that statement) understate the snow we actually see except in very marginal setups. This setup on the thump is far from marginal and only becomes an issue as we see a warm nose start sneaking in at the mid and lower levels at the very tail end of the WAA precip. Otherwise the temp profile throughout the column is better then fine for almost all if not all of the thump. But as I said it really doesn't mean much as it is one run and we are more then likely going to see the models flip back and forth for the next few days. ***Was a lot to like with what I was seeing on the Euro. Might break it down a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Keep an eye on the secondary coastal development. 0z GEFS is pretty aggressive with this feature, and a bit further south than the EPS. Could extend wintry precip by keeping the lower levels colder, esp for interior/northern areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Wild swings continue on GFS for weekend. Colder temps for Saturday on this run. First temp map 6z, second temp map 0z. Hope it is a start of a trend in the right direction. All maps WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 GEFS WB MEAN AT 6Z is cooler compared to 0z as well. CAD shows up nicely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 WB GEFS “snow” (it won’t be all snow) mean at 6Z for MLK...lock it in! About 70 percent of GEFS members give us a nice frozen event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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