CAPE Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Step back on the GFS looks like wrt to initial slug of moisture Yeah HH not so happy. Another op run down. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah HH not so happy. Another op run down. Next. Cutters are just too precarious. Let’s hope the next threat comes in from the SW and goes under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Cutters are just too precarious. Let’s hope the next threat comes in from the SW and goes under us. I'm betting that the GEFS don't look so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Step back on the GFS looks like wrt to initial slug of moisture I think this is highly dependent upon what goes on in that northern stream. Still seeing a lot of fluctuation there. We are still at least 5+ days away. It may very well not go our way but I don’t think we are out by a long shot, especially with some improvement shown with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 If the system is Saturday and the snow within 150 miles - that may be a chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm betting that the GEFS don't look so good. I don’t like the sound of that. For this event on Saturday or all of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Ughhhhhhhhhhh Why the disappointment? You do realize that if it looks great for us it will still likely look bad for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 18z Gefs is a bit colder then 12z actually yep. Snowfall mean is unchanged and it still has the look of a mixed precip event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I don’t like the sound of that. For this event on Saturday or all of it? My bad. I thought the op lost the possible coastal on the 24th. I have to stop looking at the models using my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: If the system is Saturday and the snow within 150 miles - that may be a chase. I am considering it. NE PA looks like a decent spot and isn't too far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Some people need to relax. Go to TT and cycle the last 10 runs. It’s just bouncing around between decent and not so good runs. No trend. Eventually it will get a handle on the details but not likely at this range. And even if we get a real trend (which would be over several runs with ens support not one op) it could trend back. Or maybe it won’t and who cares this isn’t our last chance. It’s mid Jan not March. Why are some living in every run for a marginal front end thump on a cutter in mid Jan when much better threats are likely ahead. I’m not tossing this, just saying calm down a little. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: My bad. I thought the op lost the possible coastal on the 24th. I have to stop looking at the models using my phone. It’s ok. I can always take better than first glance vice it looks good but actually blows chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some people need to relax. Go to TT and cycle the last 10 runs. It’s just bouncing around between decent and not so good runs. No trend. Eventually it will get a handle on the details but not likely at this range. And even if we get a real trend (which would be over several runs with ens support not one op) it could trend back. Or maybe it won’t and who cares this isn’t our last chance. It’s mid Jan not March. Why are some living in every run for a marginal front end thump on a cutter in mid Jan when much better threats are likely ahead. I’m not tossing this, just saying calm down a little. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 If anything the gefs is trending too strong with the blocking next week. Most runs suppress the system after the weekend one into the southeast. Too much ridging in Canada forces the trough axis southeast of us. Still likely to set up a threat as it relaxes later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: My bad. I thought the op lost the possible coastal on the 24th. I have to stop looking at the models using my phone. Keep this in mind going forward... After next weekend we look to enter a period of split flow. Ops will never ever ever be remotely close to accurate 10 days away with split flow regimes because the northern stream holds the keys and ops can barely get the NS right within 5 days. Stick to ens guidance only and even then it's just general ideas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If anything the gefs is trending too strong with the blocking next week. Most runs suppress the system after the weekend one into the southeast. Too much ridging in Canada forces the trough axis southeast of us. Still likely to set up a threat as it relaxes later in the week. I noticed that. The classic h5 look period is right where we want it at this juncture though on the means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some people need to relax. Go to TT and cycle the last 10 runs. It’s just bouncing around between decent and not so good runs. No trend. Eventually it will get a handle on the details but not likely at this range. And even if we get a real trend (which would be over several runs with ens support not one op) it could trend back. Or maybe it won’t and who cares this isn’t our last chance. It’s mid Jan not March. Why are some living in every run for a marginal front end thump on a cutter in mid Jan when much better threats are likely ahead. I’m not tossing this, just saying calm down a little. I’d rather stay interested in a possible winter event that is within a reasonable range than worry about hypothetical “better” events. If those come to fruition I’ll be highly interested in them as well. Until then I’m gonna follow this until it’s over or no longer feasible. I agree with you that people don’t need to live and die by model runs but I’m not getting why some are dismissing this chance. We followed an anafrontal “event” that had no chance imo and rarely if ever do. These types of events work for us often, at least some of us. We don’t have the climate to ever dismiss a chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I noticed that. The classic h5 look period is right where we want it at this juncture though on the means. Yea it’s close enough not to toss the window. Either way did you see the day 12-15 window? I mean either way the overall setup is good but with that look up top it is possible for something to get suppressed. But usually when we get blocking not every storm gets squashed. Especially as its shifts to epo blocking vs the ridge bridge look day 10. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d rather stay interested in a possible winter event that is within a reasonable range than worry about hypothetical “better” events. If those come to fruition I’ll be highly interested in them as well. Until then I’m gonna follow this until it’s over or no longer feasible. I agree with you that people don’t need to live and die by model runs but I’m not getting why some are dismissing this chance. We followed an anafrontal “event” that had no chance imo and rarely if ever do. These types of events work for us often, at least some of us. We don’t have the climate to ever dismiss a chance. I’m not dismissing it. But I’m not throwing a mini melt over every op run shift either. And if it fails I’m not acting like it’s our last chance at snow. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Got trough? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Err...is it time to make a separate thread for this?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Err...is it time to make a separate thread for this?... Lol. Only if you don't want any snow this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I can live with this profile day 9-16 850 temp anomaly mean precip 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This panel on the Gefs verbatim screams possible significant frozen event to me. Actually the 50/50 low off Newfoundland is probably the best spot yet the Gefs has spit out . I'm personally going to be heavily weighting the ensembles until Tuesday /Wednesday then start giving ops good weight. Lets hope the army of highs across Canada will help guide the low a bit more south. The 1041 mb high is in a great spot for CAD. Alot to like in that panel. Im really surprised we dont see winter weather further southwest down the lee side of the apps into the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 @psuhoffman if we aren't going to have a -ao/nao, the current d15 mean h5 across all ens is the next best thing imo. Feb 2015 was mostly northern stream. Most of 13/14 was northern stream except the Feb storm. Current look is like 2014/15 + southern stream. I can't really recall any winter in the past 15 years that had a similar hemispheric lw pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Only if you don't want any snow this weekend. Lol...I was just asking because I've had to shift through weekend posts to look for posts about how things up top were lookin' beyond that! (Not looking past this threat, though...but I am looking for anymore potential in the pipeline!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not dismissing it. But I’m not throwing a mini melt over every op run shift either. And if it fails I’m not acting like it’s our last chance at snow. That’s all. I agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol...I was just asking because I've had to shift through weekend posts to look for posts about how things up top were lookin' beyond that! (Not looking past this threat, though...but I am looking for anymore potential in the pipeline!) I like sticking to the 3 day rule meaning frozen precip starts within 72 hours or less. Some setups can get away with 4 day rule and this may be one of them if all 0z and 12z ops show frozen without degradation. We're walking a line with temps. Delay precip or miss the warm front WAA piece and it's a 100% rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lets hope the army of highs across Canada will help guide the low a bit more south. The 1041 mb high is in a great spot for CAD. Alot to like in that panel. Im really surprised we dont see winter weather further southwest down the lee side of the apps into the carolinas. Mainly because there’s very little precip at all to the sw on the east side of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like sticking to the 3 day rule meaning frozen precip starts within 72 hours or less. Some setups can get away with 4 day rule and this may be one of them if all 0z and 12z ops show frozen without degradation. We're walking a line with temps. Delay precip or miss the warm front WAA piece and it's a 100% rain storm And that’s why I think the low has to get at least to the Ohio River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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