Solution Man Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Hr 258 looking ripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle? I bet that might help keep the CAD locked in longer than straight cutter. Colder rain for some but it’s something interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12z GEFS looks intriguing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Last week’s low trended southeast. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Last week’s low trended southeast. In a major league way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z GEFS looks intriguing. Is that an improvement over 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Is that an improvement over 06z?It’s about the same, honestly. My attempted point was that snow maps aren’t showing the whole picture, GEFS and probably the EPS are showing prolonged mix-y conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s about the same, honestly. My attempted point was that snow maps aren’t showing the whole picture, GEFS and probably the EPS are showing prolonged mix-y conditions. Ever since the model page upgrade on wxbell the gefs snow algorithm doesn’t seem to show non snow as 10-1 snow as much as before. They are still not the best tool to use but they don’t seem to be super crazy exaggerated compared to the eps due to 20” of snow from a low 500 miles NW of us like before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I agree. @losetoa6As long as we get a nice slug of moisture . My concern would be the leaf of overrunning goes up into PA and we dont get the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ever since the model page upgrade on wxbell the gefs snow algorithm doesn’t seem to show non snow as 10-1 snow as much as before. They are still not the best tool to use but they don’t seem to be super crazy exaggerated compared to the eps due to 20” of snow from a low 500 miles NW of us like before. Def not the same algo as last year. If you flip between ptype and snow maps it clearly shows that zr isn't counting. Sleet is muddy but doesn't look like 10-1 to me. Models are converging on a step down pattern taking place over a week. I'm not expecting real cold or deep winter appeal until 11-13 days down the line when the what appears to be a classic -EPO arctic dump. First couple fronts starting next weekend are prob nothing more than return to normal winter here. Beyond that looks like real winter with temps. Snow tbd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 As depicted, we're very close to a nice event on the 24th or 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Intriguing panel... Haven't seen a d10 fantasy setup like this since 2016.... 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Def not the same algo as last year. If you flip between ptype and snow maps it clearly shows that zr isn't counting. Sleet is muddy but doesn't look like 10-1 to me. Models are converging on a step down pattern taking place over a week. I'm not expecting real cold or deep winter appeal until 11-13 days down the line when the what appears to be a classic -EPO arctic dump. First couple fronts starting next weekend are prob nothing more than return to normal winter here. Beyond that looks like real winter with temps. Snow tbd. Wrt the snow maps, the more sophisticated ones on Wxbell and some other outlets are getting better. The TT ones are still pretty bad wrt ice. The kuchera especially does a better job not over accumulating sleet compared to years past. Snow maps will never be as good as plain old analysis combined with common sense climo adjustment to the NWP but at least they aren’t spitting out crazy stupid maps that make it onto twitter. Now their only semi crazy stupid. Progress! As for the pattern...I agree odds increase with each wave after this week. But there are some pretty crazy blocks combined with strong highs showing up. They shift around every run but time those up right and any one of the waves starting next weekend could deliver a flush hit. But I do agree each wave after Sat has an increasing probability. The long range looks like chaos incarnate but in a good way. Super charger blocks and highs shifting all over North America. Lest we forget it takes anomalous stuff to get a good snow here usually so I’ll my chances with the crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Not trying to be the debbie downer here but I think I'm ready to be reaped. I've tried all year to be positive but it seems like we all hope every 10 days out will be "that" storm to where it ends up being short sleeves and record highs. If I keep living in fantasy land before I know it I'm going to be needing to watch the tropics. This has been nothing short of disastrous. I want to hope that Bob, PSU and everyone else is right in pattern change sooner than later but we are running out of time and quickly. I'm not saying I'm getting my panties in a bunch bc next weekend doesn't look as promising but it's like every 10 days here the pattern has looked much better and then we go back to wtf is happening? I hope I'm proven wrong bc I truly love snow. Done ranting back to weather and tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12z EURO has light snow for DCA at 141. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Perfect timing. I’ll get you settled over in the other thread, Buddy. I saw you in here so I figured I'd make things easier on you hahahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Not trying to be the debbie downer here but I think I'm ready to be reaped. I've tried all year to be positive but it seems like we all hope every 10 days out will be "that" storm to where it ends up being short sleeves and record highs. If I keep living in fantasy land before I know it I'm going to be needing to watch the tropics. This has been nothing short of disastrous. I want to hope that Bob, PSU and everyone else is right in pattern change sooner than later but we are running out of time and quickly. I'm not saying I'm getting my panties in a bunch bc next weekend doesn't look as promising but it's like every 10 days here the pattern has looked much better and then we go back to wtf is happening? I hope I'm proven wrong bc I truly love snow. Done ranting back to weather and tracking! So you hung on through 4 weeks of 2 god awful no hope shutout patterns....and now a week away from a change to at least a workable if not legit good pattern you want to jump? Ok 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Mersky said: Agreed. Stronger CAD. This is what's keeping me hanging on to an otherwise hopeless situation. Yeah, it's straight out of the weenie playbook, but CAD does tend to get stronger the closer we get to the event. Doesn't always hold true, but for the most part..... I'm going to hang in there until it gets into NAM range. No, seriously. Not for specifics, but NAM does tend to model CAD pretty well. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely a step in the right direction. And we have 5 days to get the primary down to West VA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Big bump in snowfall output on the ens. From what I can tell based on the temps/precip depiction there could also be some ice north/west as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think the focus is more the position of the low. Yes I know the cad is a function of the same mechanism that positions the low but the low position will probably dictate the amount of precip in that vital initial slug. Both models took significant steps in moving that low further southeast. Get that low better positioned and I think it’s game on and an added bonus would likely be a deeper stronger cad wedge. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Big bump in snowfall output on the ens. From what I can tell based on the temps/precip depiction there could also be some ice north/west as well. I certainly appreciate your maps but for me it would be so helpful to have the 0z map as well for comparison. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is what's keeping me hanging on to an otherwise hopeless situation. Yeah, it's straight out of the weenie playbook, but CAD does tend to get stronger the closer we get to the event. Doesn't always hold true, but for the most part..... I'm going to hang in there until it gets into NAM range. No, seriously. Not for specifics, but NAM does tend to model CAD pretty well. Don’t think it’s hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I certainly appreciate your maps but for me it would be so helpful to have the 0z map as well for comparison. Thanks No problem, I'm just cognizant that some people don't appreciate map spam and I try to avoid it. I realize that my definition of "big bump" is different than others though, so both are needed. 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: No problem, I'm just cognizant that some people don't appreciate map spam and I try to avoid it. I realize that my definition of "big bump" is different than others though, so both are needed. 0z I think it’s significant, especially for an ens mean. I’d bet there are some significant storms in that mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s significant, especially for an ens mean. I’d bet there are some significant storms in that mix Agreed... there are a handful of big hits. Kinda hit or miss though, with the obvious caveat that it isn't including sleet/ice (which there certainly is some) fyi, for whatever reason the embedded images are lower quality. noticed this for a couple weeks now. If you click them and open them in a separate window, the quality improves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Can anybody be a little more specific on what the OP euro shows? I saw somebody say light snow, but duration/amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Can anybody be a little more specific on what the OP euro shows? I saw somebody say light snow, but duration/amounts? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2020011212&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Sorry wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Step back on the GFS looks like wrt to initial slug of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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