Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away. Here's how I look at it... this winter has pretty much been epic disaster so far. We've all paid our dues already. There's a half decent chance that the pattern on deck is generally favorable for multiple weeks in a row. Even if the 18z gfs played out it's still a good a good look at the end. As long as the later periods on the ens keep looking ok I'm not going to stress about anything. OTOH- if the pattern flips back to abject failure before Jan is done this place will implode and we can call it a winter and meet back here next fall. The good thing is the CFS, Euro Weeklies and CanSips all look basically identical in the Pac for all of Feb into March. I know seasonal and weekly guidance suck sometimes but seeing unanimous agreement is encouraging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm. I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern. January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks. I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The shortwave that hasn't formed yet and needs to travel 8,700 miles hasn't been sampled. Off hour run....toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I guess we don't have to worry about the weather forecast for next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon. Stop being a bratwurst. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS trending the wrong way for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Yeah, GFS is in the hose 'em phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Great weekend storm for Wisconsin and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 If the ens means start backing off on the LR looks during MLK week...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good: That 1994 potential reverts to 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Great weekend storm for Wisconsin and Michigan. Big hit for Maine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Run at 60 again next weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 We need that developing low in sw to slide into the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 55 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I guess we don't have to worry about the weather forecast for next Sunday. Now that Lamar choked in the playoffs again everyone can focus their attention on being disappointed by the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wow that pattern change lasted 44 seconds 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Run at 60 again next weekend? Seriously it better not because we have moths around the floodlight already and if the bears come out of hibernation there isn't any food lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 What a crappy night. Might need to make my first trip the panic room. Ravens go down and the upcoming pattern takes a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 At least Dallas picks up a nice 3-6” event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Between 6z and 00z...on the same day ..35 degree difference at 18z Saturday. Absolutely embarrassing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It's one run guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It's one run guys.No...its been going downhill every run since 6z...tomorrow it will show us at 80 degrees 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Didn’t want to say it, but I thought h5 looked awful even during the thump scenario. May just need some time for the pattern to shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 All I see on gfs is warm and cutter's...does that sound like change lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Probably time to panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: All I see on gfs is warm and cutter's...does that sound like change lol? Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Scraff said: Probably time to panic? 0z GEFS looks fine to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's one run guys. No...its been going downhill every run since 6z...tomorrow it will show us at 80 degrees Let's talk tomorrow, this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 If you guys are basing your long term forecasts on 168+ hour GFS runs, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Relax guys. All it takes is one or two Features being out of place for that storm be a lakes cutter on models. Models have zero clue as to what’s going on Meteo knowledge and our climo say what will happen next weekend is Snow (how much still a huge question) to ice to rain with the usual colder spots up here near Westminster and points north holding onto a sloppy mix for a while longer than areas near 95, which will serve as the catalyst to a true wintry pattern. relax kids. Stop the cancel winter posts. Remember, with global warming, our winter is really February to April anyway LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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