frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I am wondering @Bob Chill if this event here is not one of a couple that helps to create the NAO block. Crazy, double the rate, of intensification going on here. A super Bomb ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Very nice uptick (as others have said for next weekend from the eps. Also showing the next two “threats”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 GFS eroding the cold much faster on this run. Not gonna make many friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Not trying to be a deb downer. But that is a lot of blocking being modeled over the top. Anyone else worried about storms being squashed IF that verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: GFS eroding the cold much faster on this run. Not gonna make many friends. High is weaker and slightly further north. Agreed. That is always the worry as we get closer, that the cold is not as strong or far enough south. But we are getting too specific. This will evolve.. I suspect some wintry weather.. how much is yet to be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Bit of frozen then dry slotted then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Bit of frozen then dry slotted Yeah, the initial slug of overrunning goes a little bit further north this run. That’s the fear, either get that slug of overunning or probably nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, the initial slug of overrunning goes a little bit further north this run. That’s the fear, either get that slug of overunning or probably nothing Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Regarding happy hour GFS. We know cold never gets scoured out that fast. Can’t even worry about that. I’m on to tracking March 2021 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just another OP solution 150H+ out...shifts will happen so we’ll see what the GEFS says. Considering where people expected to be 4 days ago, I’m happy we’re tracking something other than 85 degrees. I’ll be in McHenry next weekend for this so rooting for high as impact as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 18z gfs is basically an epic disaster 3 1 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The 500 changes across the whole of North America have been pretty numerous over the past few runs, especially up over Quebec. I suspect these smaller pieces are gonna have a big impact on the final outcome. We need something to force this low further south as well as hold that colder air over the ne. Think we also don’t want a sharp trough will that energy coming across the Midwest. The better solutions had a less pronounced 500 wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs is basically an epic disaster Only if you are here for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I would think this may increase the potential for cold and storms from late Jan through March. This more typical Nino-ish pattern and descending QBO might be enough to have a rather stormy and cold March as well, but some feel we need to have some sort of SSW to accomplish winter to late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Gefs slightly worse for next weekend but not a significant change. After that is says suppression is the bigger issue for the day 10/11 threat. Shifted the trough axis slightly too far southeast. But for day 10 it’s noise. Big signal for the threat as the blocking relaxes day 12-14. Goes bonkers with the HL ridge around day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Remember all those times we talked about where we need an epo right to be centered to get snow. Like this... signs of an active stj cutting under doesn’t hurt either. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Why all the sudden panic over the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Why all the sudden panic over the GFS? So you would grace us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Why all the sudden panic over the GFS? ? What panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ? What panic? Yea. Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ? What panic? He’s panicking. Assumes the rest of us are too. And he appears to be a cartoon from another era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 @psuhoffman All weekly and seasonal guidance says that EPO ridge is here to stay through Feb. If that's the case it would take some pretty bad luck to not have multiple events. Fun period coming up. We should be focusing mostly on 7 days or less by late next week. D10+ is tiring every.single.year 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 At least we can go with experience and know that the GFS has the tendency to drive low pressures into the highs and we all know how that normally plays out (gets forced a lot further south and east). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 18z had initialization errors. No panic here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 18z had initialization errors. No panic here. Really? I always thought that’s what we say when things look bad with a particular model run. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Really? I always thought that’s what we say when things look bad with a particular model run. Oh yeah, that's right. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away. Well Bob said heh a couple times. That’s code for flip to a wintry pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The shortwave that hasn't formed yet and needs to travel 8,700 miles hasn't been sampled. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away. This. See under - “all of last winter” during the epic pattern that never arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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