WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Ji said: i hope we arent sacrificing a bigger storm later in the period for a wintry mix garbage storm saturday Exactly how would that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, kind of confused myself with some that are already dismissing this threat and looking beyond it. I like the look and it is one where we can typically score 2-4, 3-6 through the region before a flip to other frozen and/or rain. Not to mention I am leaning heavily on seeing the primary end up tracking farther S and E compared to what it is spitting out now. Could very well be a thump to drizzle as we see the low transfer over top to the coast. I could easily see that as well. 850mb winds are pretty light prior to Sat morning on both models before ramping up in the afternoon. 925mb temps are very slow to erode however, showing the model is sort of seeing the wedge hanging around, but likely still too quick in the dispersion before the boundary layer finally warms. Just a 100 mile southeast jog on current progs and it's a formidable winter event for anyone west of the fall line. Curious to see ensembles on the Euro as well to see what kind of positive winter evolution(s) it's spitting out. 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...a 1045 high in January in that spot ....even if the confluence 50/50 is retreating some is usually plenty good enough for serious CAD Exactly. That's wedge into north GA kind of cold. You keep that look heading into the week and you're bound to see some icier solutions show up in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Buddy1987 said: What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west In my experience if you get it to central TN it’ll jump. But probably way too far north and late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I was skeptical but EURO is caving to GFS. I think, and I am entitled to an opinion, that the EURO has been catching up with the other models with regards to the CAD for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro op close to delivering day 9/10 as well . A good run today Euro goes berserk with HL blocking day 7-10 also. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: If it wasn't for stupid dumb P12 it would be unanimous 2"+ on all members at DCA. I want to kick P12 right in the pill box. For those with digital snow fetishes... might want to view this post in private P17 looks like a broken heart right over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We’ve got a great high position to the ne. I’m like you. It’s the low position that I’m watching. Want it at least in western ky southern Indiana. Need a good shot at heavy precip early. Sort of a balancing act. The closer the low gets to the Aps on its track the better the moisture feed but also the stronger the SW flow we see in the lower atmosphere to erode out the CAD. But what is popping up on the Euro at this lead implies we could be looking at a beast of a CAD setup which will be very difficult to overcome. If we were to see a track farther to the east it could very well be a case where the mid levels where snow is made (above 850's) are torching and yet the lower levels are an icebox (below 850's). Basically a thump to heavy sleet. Also the closer approach is more conducive to see a transfer occur over top where the precip gets shut off before the lower levels warm too much to change things over to freezing rain/rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My thoughts are this ends up as probably our second or maybe even best significant winter event this year. LOL, I know that doesn’t say much. Reminds me of the chill storm of 2012. If you keep it simple and just go off history and our climo, a west track mixed event is the most likely option imho. Luckily thess types of events are usually mostly locked in by d4-5 since it's not a complicated upper level dance or phase. Just root for as fast and juicy as possible Eta: by locked in I mean general track/progression. Devil is always in the details. Hope we get to the point where some snow is guaranteed and we're only discussing how much 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Guys, we really should be looking at the period of March 23-25th, 2021 for the real storm. 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: Sort of a balancing act. The closer the low gets to the Aps on its track the better the moisture feed but also the stronger the SW flow we see in the lower atmosphere to erode out the CAD. But what is popping up on the Euro at this lead implies we could be looking at a beast of a CAD setup which will be very difficult to overcome. If we were to see a track farther to the east it could very well be a case where the mid levels where snow is made (above 850's) are torching and yet the lower levels are an icebox (below 850's). Basically a thump to heavy sleet. Also the closer approach is more conducive to see a transfer occur over top where the precip gets shut off before the lower levels warm too much to change things over to freezing rain/rain. And that’s where expectations come in. Any visions of an all snow event probably need to be put away. That’s why I want that low close. Heavy precip early while frozen, transfer overhead and then caa behind it to freeze it all in place. Boom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Guys, we really should be looking at the period of March 23-25th, 2021 for the real storm. Too early, better pattern the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Guys, we really should be looking at the period of March 23-25th, 2021 for the real storm. That one will have a hard time accumulating on roads in the district during the day! We will need some heavy rates to overcome solar, which by then the sun will be like 3” from our face according to Avant Regent. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you keep it simple and just go off history and our climo, a west track mixed event is the most likely option imho. Luckily thess types of events are usually mostly locked in by d4-5 since it's not a complicated upper level dance or phase. Just root for as fast and juicy as possible There it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west Easiest thing to look for is to see a slower departure of the lead low to our NE moving up into the 50/50. Keep that low hanging back somewhat with the confluence associated with it and we have the mechanism to force a transfer. You could also look for much stronger high pressures overtop and to our NE in southern Canada to force a quicker transfer. Or a combination of both of the above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Eps is another weenie run. Better for next weekend. Significantly. Good looks after also. Supports the idea of HL blocking day 8-13 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Eps Mean for next weekends storm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That one will have a hard time accumulating on roads in the district during the day! We will need some heavy rates to overcome solar, which by then the sun will be like 3” from our face according to Avant Regent. Ji already sees the back edge 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 EPS is decent next weekend. Better than 50% odds of 2"+ of snow before ice/sleet/rain. Later in the run looks pretty much like the gefs.... level up weenies 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 There are 3 discreet windows showing on the gefs and eps. The epo block and ridge across Canada is forcing the system next weekend further south than you would typically expect where it starts out. After that a threat early the following week. Look at the ridge axis out west as the next system dives in. Good ridge bridge over the top. Classic look. Last threat is around day 15. Southern branch feature that cuts under the western ridge and across as the blocking relaxes. Classic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Guys, we really should be looking at the period of March 23-25th, 2021 for the real storm. If I posted something similar Id be read the riot act about posting banter in a non banter room.. life is good when you are an Admin!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps is another weenie run. Better for next weekend. Significantly. Good looks after also. Supports the idea of HL blocking day 8-13 If you loop H5 and MSLP panels with the hemispheric view... it looks like the EPS is setting up an Archambault event right at the end. -NAO flips + and mslp anomaly shows a potential coastal climbing the coast in the SE. Total fun fantasy talk but I'm not lying.... Eta: picture worth a thousand words... haven't had a miller A in 4 years... Eta #2: what PSU said already. Lol. We're telegraphing thoughts is seems. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: If I posted something similar Id be read the riot act about posting banter in a non banter room.. life is good when you are an Admin!! Randy actually owns the site. And if once in a blue moon he posts a banterish post I think he is more then entitled too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 That D9-10 look on the GEFS and EPS is KUish. 13 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Randy actually owns the site. And if once in a blue moon he posts a banterish post I think he is more then entitled too. yeah i know! thats why i posted the part about being the Admin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you loop H5 and MSLP panels with the hemispheric view... it looks like the EPS is setting up an Archambault event right at the end. -NAO flips + and mslp anomaly shows a potential coastal climbing the coast in the SE. Total fun fantasy talk but I'm not lying.... Eta: picture worth a thousand words... haven't had a miller A in 4 years... Eta #2: what PSU said already. Lol. We're telegraphing thoughts is seems. As you (or PSU or CAPE ?) posted earlier, our big events in blocking tend to happen as the NAO flips to + so this seems to fit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: If I posted something similar Id be read the riot act about posting banter in a non banter room.. life is good when you are an Admin!! It definitely is. Your whining aside, I wouldn't have deleted that comment if you made it though. I'm pretty lax with stuff until specific event threads. Ask anyone here, I barely moderate this place because I'm not qualified. I ask the moderators to moderate me! 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It definitely is. Your whining aside, I wouldn't have deleted that comment if you made it though. I'm pretty lax with stuff until specific event threads. Ask anyone here, I barely moderate this place because I'm not qualified. I ask the moderators to moderate me! lol. think you have mistaken me for JI. I'm no whiner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I love the look, and totally agree with the potential . From Eric Webb , courtesy 33, Here is Eric's post: < As you'd expect for a central Pacific MJO event coupled w/ a NINO leaning base state, the LR GEFS has a very active southern stream and is wet in the southern US and along the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sometimes, as Bob states, the - NAO simply arrives unexpectedly. Although, the Euro Control did have a solution a few days back showing a stout Davis Straits block, maybe even earlier than that. Hopefully, it becomes a reality and raises the potential of a more significant storm, very cold and longer duration, and even a HA event as previously mentioned. MJO phase 8 seems to support a -NAO, but I believe we will not be into phase 8 until early Feb, ( depending on the model you choose ) So, assuming this NAO block is brought about by Atlantic cyclonic wave breaking and deep ULL passages. If so , does the block last longer than the transient blocks so far this season ? I mention that possibility because the progressing MJO to phase 8 could end support for a longer lasting NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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