January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[frd]

16 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Hi,  @psuhoffman -- regarding your inquiry. The modality of the AAM, as in, positive or negative, is not most integral - but rather - the distribution and transport of angular momentum through the hemispheres. My analyses pre-season indicated unpropitious transports, that would likely countermand the development and maintenance of significant/sustained high latitude blocking structures for much of the winter season. There's more to the entire methodology as well, so, what is stated in the outlook is only a skeleton of what I've analyzed. But, as said, the AAM distribution in concert with other variables, such as QBO timing/diminution, Hadley, Walker Cell behavior,  among other factors, were all utilized. We'll see how the rest of the winter progresses. However, the present model/NWP trending in recent days largely comports with my expectations.

 

  @Isotherm Do you continue to favor the idea that a SSWE is not favored this winter season ?

I can see a way to a better pattern without such an event, as I almost worry about the consequence should we experience  a SSWE, although I put the odds of an official SSWE as rather low myself.   

However, outside of a SSW I would certainly  like to see some disruptions to the vortex in January though,  along with improvements in forcing, and as you mention above, AAM and the distribution and transport of it.  Seems your progression is looking good so far Tom.  Still feel we have ample opportunity later in Jan. that may go into March. Time will tell.    

[WxUSAF]

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream. 

[LurkerBoy]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream. 

The cutter is in the bag?

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream. 

Everything is turning into a bit of a mess from a predictability standpoint. I've conceded that we literally have no idea what may or may not pop up in the next 2 weeks and also that the general hemispheric pattern will remain quite unfavorable for decent event. Once we start getting some fronts rolling through with continental air and progressive flow then chaos can take over and accidentally snow on us. Trying to predict that over a week in advance is a waste of time. 

No way to spin or sugarcoat where things appear to be heading. There is no longer any hint of a good hemispheric pattern setting up anytime in the near future. Crumbs, scraps, and accidents appears to be all we're going to have to work with. 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Everything is turning into a bit of a mess from a predictability standpoint. I've conceded that we literally have no idea what may or may not pop up in the next 2 weeks and also that the general hemispheric pattern will remain quite unfavorable for decent event. Once we start getting some fronts rolling through with continental air and progressive flow then chaos can take over and accidentally snow on us. Trying to predict that over a week in advance is a waste of time. 

No way to spin or sugarcoat where things appear to be heading. There is no longer any hint of a good hemispheric pattern setting up anytime in the near future. Crumbs, scraps, and accidents appears to be all we're going to have to work with. 

I was an accident and look how well that ended up. There is still hope. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

The cutter is in the bag?

Seems that way to me. 

 

To respond to your post @Bob Chill, yes, seems that’s where we are now. Looking past D10 has been a fools errand this year so far, so we shouldn’t try it now. Right now it looks bad past D10, but maybe it changes. Right now through D10, it looks warm for the next 7 days or so, then maybe seasonable with a low chance for some winter weather through D10. Maybe something pops up on the progs on Xmas or Boxing Day. That’s when I’d start looking for something.

[Wonderdog]

Get that HP to move to the NE on the GFS 12z run on 1/4/2020, and we might get a coastal in our backyard!

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Get that HP to move to the NE on the GFS 12z run on 1/4/2019, and we might get a coastal in our backyard!

I must say Wonderdog that I didn't think todays 12z GEFS looked all that troubling.  Not KU set up perfect but If I am seeing it right we never go much above normal temps and have windows below normal...that window looks cracked for NYE to maybe the 5th as WxUSAF says...since most of our winter weather comes in small windows most years anyway really cant complain...... assuming I am not off my rocker in looking at the most basic aspects such as 850 temp anomaly and h5 anomaly. 

[Wonderdog]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I must say Wonderdog that I didn't think todays 12z GEFS looked all that troubling.  Not KU set up perfect but If I am seeing it right we never go much above normal temps and have windows below normal...that window looks cracked for NYE to maybe the 5th as WxUSAF says...since most of our winter weather comes in small windows most years anyway really cant complain...... assuming I am not off my rocker in looking at the most basic aspects such as 850 temp anomaly and h5 anomaly. 

You're right Bristow. You're not off your rocker, for that :)

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Everything is turning into a bit of a mess from a predictability standpoint. I've conceded that we literally have no idea what may or may not pop up in the next 2 weeks and also that the general hemispheric pattern will remain quite unfavorable for decent event. Once we start getting some fronts rolling through with continental air and progressive flow then chaos can take over and accidentally snow on us. Trying to predict that over a week in advance is a waste of time. 

No way to spin or sugarcoat where things appear to be heading. There is no longer any hint of a good hemispheric pattern setting up anytime in the near future. Crumbs, scraps, and accidents appears to be all we're going to have to work with. 

we had such a long run of wet/mild and even hot over the summer that i'm actually impressed we were able to switch so quickly in the fall to a pattern that could even remotely support snow.  that said, i feel like we're only at normal/typical now and may need another favorable pattern nudge to get into a wintry pattern.  nov/dec were pretty weak in the snow department, but they normally are, so i don't think we've wasted much during that transition period from a record breaking summer to a pattern that could support snow given the right track.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Pretty large differences at  just 144 hours between the Ukmet and Gfs . Ukie with lower heights to the ne and no phased system unlike the Gfs . If we r still trying to nail down day 6 then anything after that is a definite tbd.

Uk

Gfs 

Cmc is also flatter than the gfs

[WxUSAF]

31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I must say Wonderdog that I didn't think todays 12z GEFS looked all that troubling.  Not KU set up perfect but If I am seeing it right we never go much above normal temps and have windows below normal...that window looks cracked for NYE to maybe the 5th as WxUSAF says...since most of our winter weather comes in small windows most years anyway really cant complain...... assuming I am not off my rocker in looking at the most basic aspects such as 850 temp anomaly and h5 anomaly. 

GEFS is fair. After having the TPV wander over to Alaska over the next 5 days it then gets pulled east to Baffin Island by d10. Could be better, but keeping it over the pole or in Alaska would be far worse. Looks like it has some coastal solutions in the mix as well D10-12.  

 

As for the storm around the 30th, even if that storm stays south of us, our airmass is hot garbage so it could just make for cool rain. At least with the gfs solution, the storm is strong enough to pull south a nice winter airmass that potentially sets up a conducive playing field on and after NY.

 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS is fair. After having the TPV wander over to Alaska over the next 5 days it then gets pulled east to Baffin Island by d10. Could be better, but keeping it over the pole or in Alaska would be far worse. Looks like it has some coastal solutions in the mix as well D10-12.  

 

As for the storm around the 30th, even if that storm stays south of us, our airmass is hot garbage so it could just make for cool rain. At least with the gfs solution, the storm is strong enough to pull south a nice winter airmass that potentially sets up a conducive playing field on and after NY.

 

Yea, damned if you do and don't with the deal around the 30th. The only thing that can bring cold enough air into the mix is NS phasing and NS phasing almost guarantees a cutter. Euro cuts off the shortwave tracks the shortwave under us but with streams completely separated there is no cold to work with at all. 

[WxUSAF]

Yup, euro goes with the “fringed by 35F rain” scenario. Have that lead piece that cuts to the lakes strong enough to pull some cold air and maybe something like the euro could work. Think the GGEM did that a couple days ago.

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, euro goes with the “fringed by 35F rain” scenario. Have that lead piece that cuts to the lakes strong enough to pull some cold air and maybe something like the euro could work. Think the GGEM did that a couple days ago.

Looks like the pattern from others storms...ns/ss separation, positively tilted trof, kicker keeping things progressive....slide slide slippidy slide 

[frd]

 

Something to keep an eye on for  early 2020.  The modeled storm at 917  versus the Braer storm of Jan. 1993 . 

 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Something to keep an eye on for  early 2020.  The modeled storm at 917  versus the Braer storm of Jan. 1993 . 

 

 

 

 

If it leads to the same storm we had in March of 93 I’m good with it

[Rtd208]

 

[CAPE]

Its gonna be cold after Jan 1. Wonder if DT could advise me on the chances of this verifying. Thinking of heading to J-ville for a chase.

[WinterWxLuvr]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its gonna be cold after Jan 1. Wonder if DT could advise me on the chances of this verifying. Thinking of heading to J-ville for a chase.

It would be awesome if it did!

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It would be awesome if it did!

Imagine the meltdown if JAX was ahead of us in snow totals.  I would need therapy. 

[Bob Chill]

I would love for JAX to get hit like that. It would be national news and something that millions of residents would never forget. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I would love for JAX to get hit like that. It would be national news and something that millions of residents would never forget. 

True.  But it would do nothing for MBY.  It’s every man for himself in this game.  Now if that storm marched up the coast and crushed us then I would permit such blasphemy 

[Isotherm]

7 hours ago, frd said:

 

  @Isotherm Do you continue to favor the idea that a SSWE is not favored this winter season ?

I can see a way to a better pattern without such an event, as I almost worry about the consequence should we experience  a SSWE, although I put the odds of an official SSWE as rather low myself.   

However, outside of a SSW I would certainly  like to see some disruptions to the vortex in January though,  along with improvements in forcing, and as you mention above, AAM and the distribution and transport of it.  Seems your progression is looking good so far Tom.  Still feel we have ample opportunity later in Jan. that may go into March. Time will tell.    

 

@frd, thanks for your comments. Yes, I think the probability remains lower than normal for a SSW this season, although, if there is one, the most likely window would be February. Later winter SSW events are more prevalent in low solar/+QBO backdrop. The tropospheric structure for the next few weeks is largely unfavorable for potent wave driving/trop-strat energy transfer. However, it's possible we might be able to achieve more auspicious torque forcing and momentum uptick later in January via tropical engagement. Nonetheless, even if a SSW were to occur, that doesn't guarantee surface impacts as you know.

[Wonderdog]

27 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

True.  But it would do nothing for MBY.  It’s every man for himself in this game.  Now if that storm marched up the coast and crushed us then I would permit such blasphemy 

Seems like any storm that forms south of us stays south of us and then moves south. This pattern is wacked.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Seems like any storm that forms south of us stays south of us and then moves south. This pattern is wacked.

And you’d think when that happens..if ever..then we would be frigid because the block is that strong giving JAX a HECS...but as modeled we are warmer than they are..will never happen but it’s bizzaro world type pattern.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

There is a +PNA at 240 on the 18z GEFS, so there's that.

[Wonderdog]

36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

And you’d think when that happens..if ever..then we would be frigid because the block is that strong giving JAX a HECS...but as modeled we are warmer than they are..will never happen but it’s bizzaro world type pattern.  

Yeah, model depiction must be incorrect. It will change in a matter of hours. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I would love for JAX to get hit like that. It would be national news and something that millions of residents would never forget. 

We can’t afford that many weenie deaths if that happens. Half the damn forum would be gone. F off Thanos!
 

Oh and Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! 

[Amped]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There is a +PNA at 240 on the 18z GEFS, so there's that.

Appears to be rather transient though. Not liking the Pac look overall.  Going to be an warm period for the foreseeable future.