WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible. If the Euro says it is he will say it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just havin fun. I know u know. Very abrupt stuff going on compared to what we wete looking at 7-10 days ago. There's not a computer or person who knows how all this is going to shake out. Could be epic or could be abject failure. The good thing is we can just about rule out abject failure as a lock. Fun times figuring this out. Like most of everything I see I knew you were kidding. Im not totally shocked to see the suddenly flip up top. It fits the analogs that did turn better. It also fits phase 7. The same processes that are helping progress the pac ridge also pressure the TPV. So it makes sense. Just highlights the nwp can’t resolve the HL past about day 10 with any accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12z gefs looks half decent next weekend. Majority have some sort of front end thump. Acceptable/good out numbers bad/total fail. 3-4 big frozen events this run 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Sign me up for the CMC . H5 is a good bit different then the Gfs for Sat . Closes off near our latitude and almost gets us in the transfer wraparound lol Yep. The transfer part is lol but I like the fact it comes in Friday evening fast and hard. The overrunning part is a real nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, frd said: Putting down bets for some sort of HA event ........ after day 10. What's a HA event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: 12z gefs looks half decent next weekend. Majority have some sort of front end thump. Acceptable/good out numbers bad/total fail. 3-4 big frozen events this run The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event. Yea, we're 2 synoptic events away from that window. No chance models have anything nailed down. Gut says mixed event likely as it's a bread and butter type of setup and we have a lot of experience with these kinds of deals. If it breaks wrong and is all rain then disappointment won't last long me thinks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I do like seeing the gefs and eps picking up on numerous solutions that dump frozen in NC. One of the clues I look for when assessing bigger storm risk. 12z gefs continues its weenie streak. Another very wintry and good looking run. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What's a HA event? Heather Archambault. Science behind big east coast storms that happen between phase changes of the NAO. Ours usually happen when the NAO flips neg to pos. One of the reasons it gets warm after big coastals because the NAO relaxes and cold retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: like seeing the gefs and eps picking up on numerous solutions that dump frozen in NC. We would be excited but we are too busy jumping off the cliff due to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 If it wasn't for stupid dumb P12 it would be unanimous 2"+ on all members at DCA. I want to kick P12 right in the pill box. For those with digital snow fetishes... might want to view this post in private 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 This look right here showes up A LOT as a precursor to mid atlantic snows when I did my examination of each one. A strong ridge near Baffin with ridge bridge fading to a ridge west of the Hudson was a pretty common snow look. After that @showmethesnowpointed this out and gefs continues to show the jet undercutting the western ridge which is a much better look that a full latitude ridge. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 It’s been mentioned but pretty good signal for an event around 1/22-23 on the GEFS. Some big hits in the mix along with some suppressed and rain solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event. Exactly. Anybody looking past next weekend to something “better” after is missing out (and evidently not very experienced) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I have an idea....maybe we could start an American Weather forum Mid Atlantic winter storm index for 0-5 days out and 6 days or more out. It would make it easier to know what our more experienced forum members think of the pattern potential. “0” for torch and “10” for something that would make even Ji happy. For example, currently it would be “0” for the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly. Anybody looking past next weekend to something “better” after is missing out (and evidently not very experienced) Agreed, 100%. Don't understand the punting on any potential for the "next" potential after that may never even come. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If it wasn't for stupid dumb P12 it would be unanimous 2"+ on all members at DCA. I want to kick P12 right in the pill box. For those with digital snow fetishes... might want to view this post in private This is the weenies snow mean for a run when all the snow is week 2. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 EURO 12z is south this run....light snow breaking out Saturday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Euro a little colder than at 0z for next weekend. Should at least have some frozen on the front end and seems like a step towards the GFS. Not a bad run for PSU and jackpotville IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Much stronger CAD signature showing up on the Euro compared to the 00z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 While by 18z it is rain verbatim on EURO, the shift of the frozen line is south at the MD PA line. Nice step in right direction compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week. Yeah, kind of confused myself with some that are already dismissing this threat and looking beyond it. I like the look and it is one where we can typically score 2-4, 3-6 through the region before a flip to other frozen and/or rain. Not to mention I am leaning heavily on seeing the primary end up tracking farther S and E compared to what it is spitting out now. Could very well be a thump to drizzle as we see the low transfer over top to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 That euro solution with the snow down the spine of the apps is perplexing to me. If the 850’s sty cold enough for snow that’s likely to be a more widespread area. Doubt seriously we hang on to 850’s but somehow the surface warms in a cad setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Night and day between the current run snowmap vs the 00z. ooZ was basically nothing for the region vs the 12Z... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads. If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models. Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, kind of confused myself with some that are already dismissing this threat and looking beyond it. I like the look and it is one where we can typically score 2-4, 3-6 through the region before a flip to other frozen and/or rain. Not to mention I am leaning heavily on seeing the primary end up tracking farther S and E compared to what it is spitting out now. Could very well be a thump to drizzle as we see the low transfer over top to the coast. We’ve got a great high position to the ne. I’m like you. It’s the low position that I’m watching. Want it at least in western ky southern Indiana. Need a good shot at heavy precip early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads. If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models. Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out. It is absolutely under modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 i hope we arent sacrificing a bigger storm later in the period for a wintry mix garbage storm saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 My thoughts are this ends up as probably our second or maybe even best significant winter event this year. LOL, I know that doesn’t say much. Reminds me of the chill storm of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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