HighStakes Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 0z EPS was a notable step towards a favorable outcome (not all rain) next weekend. I don't disagree with anyone about the flaws but spiking the all rain football can come back and bite. There is a deep/cold airmass in advance that needs to be scoured. The whole setup to me looks like a common front end thump/mix/rain or dryslot. It's not convoluted or unusual. It's a bread and butter setup that can break good or bad. The airmass in front is reason to pause the argument the first storm in a pattern change never works out. If we trying to get the cold to catch up to the precip that often fails especially in the southern part of our region. That is not the case with next weekends system. of course things may look different but as of now it's a decent if not really good look at some frozen accumulation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: The airmass in front is reason to pause the argument the first storm in a pattern change never works out. If we trying to get the cold to catch up to the precip that often fails especially in the southern part of our region. That is not the case with next weekends system. of course things may look different but as of now it's a decent if not really good look at some frozen accumulation. We have no way to know how stout or weak that cold airmass will be. If it trends into a piece of crap shallow cold then I'll punt. Nothing is resolved other than some sort of precip event is likely and there might be some cold in the vicinity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: The general look is ok, but verbatim we would be fighting cold/dry, and any wave that amps would tend to take a NW track without perfect timing. Might be a decent pattern for several smaller events. Agree, I am hoping we do get some undercutting events and a period or two of an active STJ. Extreme cold not needed, as many here have stated the last several days. Rather have multiple storm chances, to score in at least a couple. Some MJO phases I believe further down the road may support a -NAO and I do favor later in the season for a Davis Straits block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, frd said: Agree, I am hoping we do get some undercutting events and a period or two of an active STJ. Extreme cold not needed, as many here have stated the last several days. Rather have multiple storm chances, to score in at least a couple. Some MJO phases I believe further down the road may support a -NAO and I do favor later in the season for a Davis Straits block. We should celebrate any prog that shows it's possible to snow going forward. The current ugly period looks like it will end up being a full month of a garbage winter pattern. We got lucky and snuck an event in but imagine if that didnt happen. A full month of met winter with a disasterous pattern... At this point I just want to be in the game again... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We should celebrate any prog that shows it's possible to snow going forward. The current ugly period looks like it will end up being a full month of a garbage winter pattern. We got lucky and snuck an event in but imagine if that didnt happen. A full month of met winter with a disasterous pattern... At this point I just want to be in the game again... Bob, do you recall what happened in our area last Jan from the 21 st to the 30 th ? bluewave was mentioning just moments ago the pattern portrayed below is a very close match to last year during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 ICON just layed an egg for next weekend. Slightly different progression from 0z. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 @frd iirc that period was a nothingburger. Big storm hit on the 13th-14th and that was the only notable period of Jan that I can remember. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ICON just layed an egg for next weekend. Slightly different progression from 0z. Lol Shhhhh, dont wake the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ICON just layed an egg for next weekend. Slightly different progression from 0z. Lol It starts as a brief period of snow before a flip to rain...in extreme northern Vermont. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 For those who worried Canada would be scoured of cold I just looked and knew it was going to be cold up there, but some of these numbers and the expanse of the arctic air is remarkable. So, there is your cold air source for down the road. https://www.timescolonist.com/strong-winds-snow-on-b-c-s-south-coast-snow-deep-freeze-in-the-north-1.24049987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Allen was hitting this in the SE forum so I don’t want to take any credit but for whatever reason (likely the fact January has the broadest most stable wavelengths of winter) phase 7 just in January is actually a really good phase. It’s temps are skewed warm on the seasonal charts because in Feb it becomes a warm phase and 8 takes on a similar h5 look phase 7 has in January. But assuming we can get into 7 in January and then by February it’s either moved on to 8 or simple dies that’s a good look. Phase 7 h5 composite for January. Sorry but I will not pay for the chiropractic services you may require to see the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Here’s a version for those that don’t enjoy trips to the chiropractor 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 ^looks a lot like the Eps. I said just the other day the phase 7 composite looked a lot like the progs minus the ao and NAO. Well... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 After next weekend, we only have 42 days of Met winter left 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: After next weekend, we only have 42 days of Met winter left Thanks, you saved me the time of counting them all. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure..... Putting down bets for some sort of HA event ........ after day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure..... Usual caveats apply...OP run...D10/11 blah blah blah. I can’t tell though...is that truly a -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Usual caveats apply...OP run...D10/11 blah blah blah. I can’t tell though...is that truly a -NAO? Surface is torching though. Seems like the GFS OP always resembles the worst of the ensemble members. Edit: Sorry for the whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lol. And a cutter at the same time. Neat panel tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ^looks a lot like the Eps. I said just the other day the phase 7 composite looked a lot like the progs minus the ao and NAO. Well... 22 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure..... 2 weeks ago when I looked at past similar pac patterns and how they progressed it struck me how almost all the comps that evolved to a good look were accompanied by at least a period of blocking in the AO or NAO domain during the transition. A few days ago when the guidance showed the pattern progressing to an Epo ridge without a flip in the NAM state I was like “that’s not how it’s happened before but that works”. Now suddenly a more historically supported progression is showing up on guidance. As usual climo beats guidance at long range most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. And a cutter at the same time. Neat panel tho... I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. And a cutter at the same time. Neat panel tho... That deep blue off SFO is f-Ing things up. That feature is always popping up. It’s the new GLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12 I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12 Just havin fun. I know u know. Very abrupt stuff going on compared to what we wete looking at 7-10 days ago. There's not a computer or person who knows how all this is going to shake out. Could be epic or could be abject failure. The good thing is we can just about rule out abject failure as a lock. Fun times figuring this out. Like most of everything I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 One trend on all guidance is too speed up next weekends storm. 12z cmc has a nice thump beginning on Friday evening. Most models a few days ago had it for Sunday. I dont think its a bad thing to get it here sooner . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible. lol - I was making a similar reference in the banter thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That deep blue off SFO is f-Ing things up. That feature is always popping up. It’s the new GLL The gfs had a suppressed storm most runs of the last couple days there. Don’t worry too much about discreet features at day 12 on an op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible. I’m sure you will get a calm level headed response. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: The gfs had a suppressed storm most runs of the last couple days there. Don’t worry too much about discreet features at day 12 on an op run. I know it’s just that feature irritates me. We are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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