Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, the CAD digs down in there a lot better. We stay more snow/sleet than zr. If the period of rain looks shorter. This could be a long track where models lock in on some sort of CAD with a juicy slug of qpf and not waver that much. Maybe by D5 we see globals all agree and not change much from there. Let's hope it tracks under us... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lol. This would be an epic snow to ice 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. This would be an epic snow to ice Damn, those sfc temps tho. Damn. 30's all the way into central NC. And not just 30's...but freezing. And past those panels, could be a classic situation where models try to scour out LL cold too early also. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Much colder. Each run is trending colder. Now to get that low in a better spot. I would be fine with it just like that. No rain for us out here. Snow to ice to dry slot. Which would then become a glacier for a few days. It is a decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, those sfc temps tho. Damn. 30's all the way into central NC. And not just 30's...but freezing. And past those panels, could be a classic situation where models try to scour out LL cold too early also. Gfs and icon have the same idea at the same general time. Getting that extra confluence going is keep hp anchored and sfc winds are out of the north until precip starts. Cold dry air too. This is becoming a good ice setup 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 @psuhoffman there's some irony with the aleutian/npac ridge that's been terrorizing our weenies for the last week ends up becoming a -NAO. The h5 loop is comical if it goes down like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman there's some irony with the aleutian/npac ridge that's been terrorizing our weenies for the last week becomes a -NAO. The h5 loop is comical if it goes down like that. Very unusual but the euro op was kinda doing it too. When under attacks by waves the tpv has been easy to beat around this year. probkem has been at times the mid latitude patterns set up perfectly to let the tpv sit over the pole and spin. Maybe that’s a sign the qbo is helping a little. Last year was a reverse when wave after wave would blast the tpv and the guidance at range would develop monster blocking but the tpv wouldn’t budge and kinda just chuckle at us like “that all you got”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Gefs is pretty gung ho on the snow/ice/rain deal next weekend. The run should be age restricted too cuz this is straight porn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs is pretty gung ho on the snow/ice/rain deal next weekend. The run should be age restricted too cuz this is straight porn I’ll take an order of P01 please. That’s snow socialism at its best. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 00z CMC is odd looking in its evolution for the weekend... but still gives us snow on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Euro wants no parts to next weekend.....but the setup post 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro wants no parts to next weekend.....but the setup post 240 Man I despise that emoji, lol Why man? Ain't the setup after that what we're focusing on more anyway? And could you elaborate a bit on what you mean by "wants no parts of it" (imo it does make it a bit confusing when people will say things like that without saying exactly what--we folk without full EURO access rely on you guys' descriptions!) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 While Oz EURO is still Dr. No for next weekend, EPS shows slight improvement for next weekend. Hope it caves to GFS/ GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6z GFS CAD not as deep as Oz for next weekend. The low tracks for EURO and GFS look similar so it will be interesting to see which model has a better handle on temperature profiles for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 6z GFS CAD not as deep as Oz for next weekend. The low tracks for EURO and GFS look similar so it will be interesting to see which model has a better handle on temperature profiles for next weekend. Not even an honorable mention in LWX discussion yet for next weekend. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 EPS is now building some pretty significant +heights into the NAO domain in 10 days. The whole look up to is impressive on this panel. It's fairly transient, and a few days beyond this the EPO ridge becomes very impressive, with the NAO looking more neutral. Cold look down the line. Hopefully not dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS is now building some pretty significant +heights into the NAO domain in 10 days. The whole look up to is impressive on this panel. My question is - why does the GFS show something almost night and day different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, weathertree4u said: My question is - why does the GFS show something almost night and day different? Different model lol. GEFS also builds heights during that time frame, but not as impressive and more transient than the EPS. By day 15 they both end up with pretty much the same look- big EPO ridge with a neutral NAO on the EPS, more positive on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6z GEFS is a weenie run from late next weekend onward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS is now building some pretty significant +heights into the NAO domain in 10 days. The whole look up to is impressive on this panel. It's fairly transient, and a few days beyond this the EPO ridge becomes very impressive, with the NAO looking more neutral. Cold look down the line. Hopefully not dry. 06z gfs goes bonkers over GL....Seems we are getting some consensus on a stout NAO block that fades into an EPO ridge. But, it could just end up being a ridge bridge longer than what is currently depicted. Also notice a nice uptick in hits as the the NAO fades and EPO takes over. The looks across the board have me drooling! ETA: Trough axis on the LR EPS is sweet. Starts at hr300 and hold through the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z gfs goes bonkers over GL....Seems we are getting some consensus on a stout NAO block that fades into an EPO ridge. But, it could just end up being a ridge bridge longer than what is currently depicted. Also notice a nice uptick in hits as the the NAO fades and EPO takes over. The looks across the board have me drooling! Yeah there is a chance we could see a more sustained block, but it has been a long time since that occurred during winter. As some of us were discussing yesterday, if the EPO ridge is going to be a prominent feature, we will have a persistent cold air source, so some periodic/well timed transient ridging in the NAO space could work as it would provide a mechanism to inhibit a bigger storm from cutting. Overall it's hard not to get a bit excited with what the guidance has been advertising lately. Looks like we have to get through 5 days or so of Spring and then things get rolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season. Next weekend storm clears, old front/baro boundary hung up just off the coast, arctic air in place, several waves riding the boundary. GEFS has an actual surface low depiction developing from one of the waves and brings it N just off the Delmarva. Outside of 1 run yesterday (18z?) this general window has been lighting up as a period to watch. Of course it is way out there and we need to see about next weekend but my thoughts have always been next weekend is the table setter....thump to mix. Irt next weekend on the GEFS the ridging to the N and nosing into Baffin Sea has been increasing run over run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 06 GFS gets precip in atleast 6 hours earlier next weekend and has it snowing by sun up in Saturday. Cold temps too at the start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season. Next weekend storm clears, old front/baro boundary hung up just off the coast, arctic air in place, several waves riding the boundary. GEFS has an actual surface low depiction developing from one of the waves and brings it N and kist off the Delmarva. Outside of 1 run yesterday (18z?) this general window has been lighting up as a period to watch. Of course it is way out there and we need to see about next weekend but my thoughts have always been next weekend is the table setter. Irt next weekend on the GEFS the ridging to the N and nosing into Baffin Sea has been increasing run over run. I agree with this in general. We typically don't see significant winter events at the front end of a major pattern change. That said, it is still showing up on guidance, and I could see the usual places getting a mixy storm. Almost never happens on the coastal plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Verbatim next Saturday is a legit winter storm. Several hours of snow to several hours of sleet to ZR. By 7pm Saturday temps go above freezing for Dca points south and east but about an inch of QPF has fallen. Temps still in the 20's north and west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 My initial glance at the EPS leading into our potential storm for next weekend was pretty much a, 'Oh crap' moment. Stronger height builds and ridging in front of our incoming system compared to the 12z and we were also seeing the NS with a weaker dig and a farther west track on its eastward movement. Height builds were pretty much suggestive of more warming leading into the system . As far as the NS track it pretty much takes the low running through our region or to our south off the table. As I said, it was a, 'Oh crap' moment. But diving into it a little bit and I realized it was actually a more promising look for frozen through our our region. What I didn't initially pick up on was that we were seeing much stronger height builds over top around the Hudson Bay which was translating to stronger higher pressures on the surface in Canada. We were also seeing the a stronger, slower and farther SE signature on the 500's through the 50/50 region. This setup is actually a fairly decent upgrade from the 12Z for maintaining CAD (cold air damming) in the east. One other thing, with the farther west track of our surface low the stronger southerly flow at the lower levels also shifts farther west making it that much more difficult to scour out the CAD. And below you can see the surface representation 12 hours later when precip is starting of what the 500's above produced. Strong high over top with a 50/50 helping to slow it down. This combo is producing a strong CAD signature east of the Aps. Farther west low is keeping the stronger southerly surface flow west of the Aps. Not surprisingly we saw an increase on the snowfall maps (looking at them more so for the frozen potential then for actual snow). The run was actually close to an all frozen event (snow, sleet, freezing rain) for N and W of the cities. Throw in a little better temps in the lower levels for after we lose the mids and we are talking Fz rain or sleet to end this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I know PSU and Bob have mentioned this several times..But that look at the end of the EPS run with the bagginess off the west coast and a signal that the STJ is undercutting the PNA ridge is money. LR caveats and all...but man that is a nice look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I agree with this in general. We typically don't see significant winter events at the front end of a major pattern change. That said, it is still showing up on guidance, and I could see the usual places getting a mixy storm. Almost never happens on the coastal plain. Watch the EPO ridge progression the last 6 gefs runs for the same forecast time....eye opening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch the EPO ridge progression the last 6 gefs runs for the same forecast time....eye opening: Yes it has evolved to something a bit different on the means. Not surprising, and not necessarily bad. See Showme's post above. Given where I live, my interest continues to lie primarily from 20th and forward. eta- I will keep an eye on next weekend, because if it looks like a decent event in the nearby highlands, I am in chase mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 06 GFS gets precip in atleast 6 hours earlier next weekend and has it snowing by sun up in Saturday. Cold temps too at the start. Very cold. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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