Kmlwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: After just looking over the EPS I think I will jump on the Bus as well. Ignoring anything beforehand, day 10-15 looks very good. And as the pattern looks as if it is setting in one would have to believe that look extends a good deal beyond day 15. Good times. At least until the next run. When it increases the weenie looks even more. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After just looking over the EPS I think I will jump on the Bus as well. Ignoring anything beforehand, day 10-15 looks very good. And as the pattern looks as if it is setting in one would have to believe that look extends a good deal beyond day 15. Good times. At least until the next run. I actually am rooting against snow next weekend. Have big guitar weekend coming up at church so im going to troll any storm we get until Monday Jan 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I actually am rooting against snow next weekend. Have big guitar weekend coming up at church so im going to troll any storm we get until Monday Jan 20 Pretty good signal for being 12 days out for the 22'nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: After just looking over the EPS I think I will jump on the Bus as well. Ignoring anything beforehand, day 10-15 looks very good. And as the pattern looks as if it is setting in one would have to believe that look extends a good deal beyond day 15. Good times. At least until the next run. Should we temper expectations at all since this is still 10+ days out and we are seeing alot of shuffling around still or are we diving in headfirst? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Pretty good signal for being 12 days out for the 22'nd. as long as it dosent happen on the 19th...or if it does after 3pm haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Should we temper expectations at all since this is still 10+ days out and we are seeing alot of shuffling around still or are we diving in headfirst? r.. we saw amazing looks last year until the models just gave up lol...I remember bob showing us the weeklies and they looked historic 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: we saw amazing looks last year until the models just gave up lol...I remember bob showing us the weeklies and they looked historic Yep, the infamous epic unicorn looks across the board on all ens, weeklies, tellies, etc. It was a fail proof look all around and it was only 10+ days away. Never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Before the craziness...if the guidance continues to trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay there is a chance the system next weekend continues to trend south. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Should we temper expectations at all since this is still 10+ days out and we are seeing alot of shuffling around still or are we diving in headfirst? I'm all.... At least until tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: I actually am rooting against snow next weekend. Have big guitar weekend coming up at church so im going to troll any storm we get until Monday Jan 20 You should be praying... you jamming with Skillet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Pretty good signal for being 12 days out on the 22'nd. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Strat shenanigans later? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 @WxUSAF would make sense. I was thinking how almost all the years that featured a Jan pac ridge and improved were accompanied by some HL blocking. Just thinking out loud and putting things together but there have been some suggestions that high amplified waves near the MC can preceed a strat event. Those waves would also cause the pattern were in. Also the same processes that would shift the ridge into the epo domain will also apply pressure to the PV. And now suddenly we’re seeing signs of blocking showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I took some liberties... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF would make sense. I was thinking how almost all the years that featured a Jan pac ridge and improved were accompanied by some HL blocking. Just thinking out loud and putting things together but there have been some suggestions that high amplified waves near the MC can preceed a strat event. Those waves would also cause the pattern were in. Also the same processes that would shift the ridge into the epo domain will also apply pressure to the PV. And now suddenly we’re seeing signs of blocking showing up. IF, giant IF, we get a major strat disruption in early-mid Feb, that would support winter hanging on into March when potentially tropical forcing could be in warm phases by mid-late Feb. Lots of wild speculation there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 We had 70 degree weather in January 2016....and then something happened a couple weeks later. And it was awesome. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: IF, giant IF, we get a major strat disruption in early-mid Feb, that would support winter hanging on into March when potentially tropical forcing could be in warm phases by mid-late Feb. Lots of wild speculation there lol Looks like we took it several levels too far today. 18z gefs will punish us for it 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like we took it several levels too far today. 18z gefs will punish us for it I dunno the force is strong with Friday happy hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I dunno the force is strong with Friday happy hour. The op knows I don't care about d7+. It's the ens suite that will do it. Get ready for SE ridge so big it starts melting greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The force is strong...GFS says don’t give up on the MLK weekend storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: The force is strong...GFS says don’t give up on the MLK weekend storm yet. Who the hell gave up on it? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I stand corrected. Although I thought EPS at 12z was not showing much until after the weekend. Will have to go look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I stand corrected. Although I thought EPS at 12z was not showing much until after the weekend. Will have to go look again. Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 That low in ne Texas isn’t terrible. Getting it slide more e than north isn’t out of the realm. At this range all the models had Tuesday’s low pressure heading up west of the apps. Think we may be watching this for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 This run again has better 850’s and 2m temps. Incremental improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Here's the DCA meteo from the 12z eps. It gets better as you head west and north but still damn good for long range. EPS keeps increasing the # of bigger hits. Best d9-15 run this winter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Jan 21-25 is the one imo. Next weekend sets the stage. Strong signals on ens for that period and now ops sniffing something...maybe glue, not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Gfs cranks up the -nao again. It starts building d5-6 and keeps getting stronger. Blocking isn't forecast well at all with long leads. A big AO or NAO block can suddenly pop up so the idea isn't insane. Just the people that care about it are insane 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs cranks up the -nao again. It starts building d5-6 and keeps getting stronger. Blocking isn't forecast well at all with long leads. A big AO or NAO block can suddenly pop up so the idea isn't insane. Just the people that care about it are insane GFS HH op is only a few minor adjustments from a complete weenie run days 7 forward. Interested in the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs cranks up the -nao again. It starts building d5-6 and keeps getting stronger. Blocking isn't forecast well at all with long leads. A big AO or NAO block can suddenly pop up so the idea isn't insane. Just the people that care about it are insane Too much blocking. Lol. Squashes everything. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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