Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15 I’ll have a number 8, a 10, and a 16 please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I am sure it will shock everyone that JB Is on board for the flip. I actually enjoyed his videos today where he discussed the similarities to 1978, the MJO moving to more favorable phases, and an interesting discussion about the recent deluge of rain in Israel like 1978. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window. I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set. But its obvious now the anomalous central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge. It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time. That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters. We seem to have dodged that bullet. 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15 Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge. I like where things are heading. Move gfs through time and the higher latitudes start to look in our favor. Combine that with a PNA that goes positive and a favorable Atlantic, I’ll take our chances late Jan-feb to score 1-2 solid events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 @Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us... Yea man, it's no doubt an eyebrow raiser. NAO flips are always difficult to predict in advance on models. Maybe it sneaks up on us. This isn't the same type of pattern as 2015 if that's the case. Even if a real -NAO doesn't show up there isn't a massive rotating TPV like there was in Feb 2015. This is like a muted 2015 but in a good way. We'll see how things shake out but at the very least we can safely say that our best chance of winter wx of the season is on tap d8-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us... CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 CFS has a CAD signature 4 weeks out. LOL 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window. I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set. But its obvious now the anomalous central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge. It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time. That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters. We seem to have dodged that bullet. It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CFS has a CAD signature 4 weeks out. LOL I have never seen that before on a LR weeklies chart....ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I have never seen that before on a LR weeklies chart....ever. 7 day MSLP panel shows HP max over Maine and also sprawling HP in the upper MW so it's actually a 4 week lead CAD sig. LOL. I've never seen it either. All in though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 May as well discuss the h5 panel too. There's almost a -AO going and no doubt confluence to our north and the door is open in the west for STJ to undercut the PNA/EPO ridge. This is a ripe panel for winter wx here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far. Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC. I took some liberties but it's still a good split flow pattern... heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome. It was...of the handful of times that pattern flipped it was mostly from retrogression not progression. However, those composites were mostly years the pac locked in longer than a week so it could be more common when the pac ridge is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 EPS just made a notable shift towards the possibility of a -AO/NAO. lol. I'll post a panel once the run is done. Teaser.... it's weeniesh 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 @Bob Chill ummmmmmmm 9 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill ummmmmmmm LOL- wait till you check out the snow on the members. lol. Weeniesh doesn't do it justice for a long range prog. lol 8 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Big hits start around day 9 . Looks awesome Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+ @ DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy 12 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+ @ DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Gonna be interesting to watch the system next weekend IMO. Euro ensemble would say to me keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+ @ DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy I want this face posted by you soon 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 EPS does not seem impressed with next weekend, But snow mean increases with some big hits the week of January 20. Patience will be needed for another week. WB EPS 15 day mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, yoda said: I want this face posted by you soon LOL- I don't break that one out often because it's rare when we get a 8"+ storm locked inside of 5 days. Maybe later this month... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Took some liberties again but if the d15 EPS mean is right we continue in a very good setup 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Before the craziness...if the guidance continues to trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay there is a chance the system next weekend continues to trend south. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I took some liberties but it's still a good split flow pattern... heh I feel like that split has been there since early fall when I was researching data for my winter outlook. Talk about a recurring theme! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 After just looking over the EPS I think I will jump on the Bus as well. Ignoring anything beforehand, day 10-15 looks very good. And as the pattern looks as if it is setting in one would have to believe that look extends a good deal beyond day 15. Good times. At least until the next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now