Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 After the debacle of the GFS being on its own island this winter season continuously showing snowy scenarios and winter weather I have a hard time buying into it. With that said however support from Euro and EPS makes me feel a whole lot better. Time will tell here in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Speak for yourself. As PSU would say, Move north young man, move north. Think this may be why we are seeing the GEFS having issues with the weekend. It isn't sure what it wants to do Thursday as of yet. Yes that may be the case. I didn't look at the 0z GEPS, but the op run was clearly getting the cold in earlier and favoring low pressure to our south/southeast late next week/weekend. I did live up there for 10 years until work required me to move to the nearly snowless lowlands. I did find a spot on the interior upper part of the peninsula away from the bays and removed from the immediate coast, so it isn't awful all of the time. A move north is likely in the near future. But not merely to the northern edge of the subtropics where you are, I am talking NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I place little faith in this snowfall prediction, except to say, the more extensive the area and the further South it extends certainly raises my confidence level for later in the month and it has support from the Euro. So there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Don’t have time to go into my full thought now but I liked a lot of what I saw from last nights runs. But while the pattern is supportive of a frozen event in the long range, it’s not the kind of pattern that’s good for picking up the details of a discreet event at long leads. Too progressive for that. Waves that look good at day 10 may turn to crap and things not even on the radar will pop up at day 5. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: After the debacle of the GFS being on its own island this winter season continuously showing snowy scenarios and winter weather I have a hard time buying into it. With that said however support from Euro and EPS makes me feel a whole lot better. Time will tell here in the next couple days. Euro has had several situations (at least 3 imby/region) where it had measurable snow 84 hours out then caved to the virtually snowless GFS. I honestly expected more digital fantasy snowstorms on the FV3/GFS this year. It is staying in its lane so far for the most part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro has had several situations (at least 3 imby/region) where it had measurable snow 84 hours out then caved to the virtually snowless GFS In the OLD days a combo of the Eta and the Euro both forecasting snow in the short to medium range was a lock , maybe these days a combo of the GFS and the Euro is a confidence builder in the medium range. I mean eventually all this clear moisture has to turn white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS is less of a front end snow thump. Primariy low is further South and East, making for a stronger warm surge. If we had a stronger block.... Still a long way to go and I doubt this is going to be the final track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I’ll take what the gfs is showing. Improved imo. Low in central Tn with some cold/CAD is usually a pretty good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS is less of a front end snow thump. Primariy low is further South and East, making for a stronger warm surge. If we had a stronger block.... Still a long way to go and I doubt this is going to be the final track. NS is tricky here. There's no way to pin down transient confluence. I can easily see how this can be a great snow event, a major mixed event, or a heartbreaking all rain event. Hurry up and wait is our catchphrase for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is less of a front end snow thump. Primariy low is further South and East, making for a stronger warm surge. If we had a stronger block.... Still a long way to go and I doubt this is going to be the final track. 850’s are better, low level cold is better, the low pressure is in a better place to provide copious precip. It’s a better run IMO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll take what the gfs is showing. Improved imo. Low in central Tn with some cold/CAD is usually a pretty good setup. Gfs likely too fast with the change....probably the follow up system that will bring smiles all around Jan 20-24 range. Eta: but of course the GFS op is trying to overwhelm the pattern with cold so we play the patiently waiting game for now and see how the NS flow evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: 850’s are better, low level cold is better, the low pressure is in a better place to provide copious precip. It’s a better run IMO I agree actually. I like how the low is getting shoved s and e with every one. Of we lined all the ducks up we’d be set for a pretty classic event with CAD. Like Bob said, the transient nature of the NS is the tricky part. We need triple 7s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: 850’s are better, low level cold is better, the low pressure is in a better place to provide copious precip. It’s a better run IMO This run, sure. But like Chill said the confluence is transient. Wont take much change in the fast ns flow to either screw things up horribly or make for a good storm. Based on the pattern we are moving out of I favor the crud scenario unfolding but I think this sets us up for down the road much better irt overall longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This run, sure. But like Chill said the confluence is transient. Wont take much change in the fast ns flow to either screw things up horribly or make for a good storm. Based on the pattern we are moving out of I favor the crud scenario unfolding but I think this sets us up for down the road much better irt overall longwave pattern. That’s fine. I’m just looking at the run itself. Once something has shown up for several runs in a row and is within a reasonable time frame I like to start looking at the details of the system. I realize there are other players at work but under the overall conditions that this particular model is spitting out, I like this setup. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Look what the GFS is doing around Hudson/Baffin.... heh... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look what the GFS is doing around Hudson/Baffin.... heh... Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look what the GFS is doing around Hudson/Baffin.... heh... Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense Weird progression in general. GFS is off on a tangent. Interesting to see though. Haven't seen many op runs with any decent blocking in the AO/NAO spaces for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense Lots of moving pieces. Very hectic run. That upper level energy above the lakes got pinched off between the ridge over Hudson and the ridge building northward over the Canadian Maritimes, and then it phases with the energy moving underneath from the central US. The blocking(such that it is) was just getting its act together, and if you look at the panels beyond this one, you can see that piece of energy pretty much moves ENE, with the ridging over the top also in motion moving up into GL. To recap- the pattern is not blocked up(yet) and the UL energy is not cutting up into a 'log jam'. And none of this matters because it is an op run and the next cycle will bear little resemblance to this progression lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 GEFS is move SE for next weekend. Not there yet but better ridging out W and a flatter SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll take what the gfs is showing. Improved imo. Low in central Tn with some cold/CAD is usually a pretty good setup. I would prefer a little more stuff a little more south, just to include Central VA. Y’all up there got your frozen... Edit: haven’t studied the lunch run quite well... will look more in depth after luncheon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Very different look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 NS is tricky here. There's no way to pin down transient confluence. I can easily see how this can be a great snow event, a major mixed event, or a heartbreaking all rain event. Hurry up and wait is our catchphrase for the next week. How often do we get big winter events on day 1 of the pattern change lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo: Ninja'd by @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Keep the southern wave train running with that shift in the high latitudes and you’re bound to see some frozen down the line. I am really really liking the setup for February if this shakes out close to what is being progged. Even down here for that matter. Any blocking in the NA is icing to lock in the freezer. We know what happens when cold is around and wave lengths shorten. Good stuff in LR ensemble land. . 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Get something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent and strong signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo: Ninja'd by @Ji Could an argument be made that the pattern change began when the mid Atlantic got some snow a couple of days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 How does the individual GEFS member look for next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Getting something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon: Here's the member spread for that period. It's hard to capture in a single panel with timing differences but there's 5-6 legit snowstorms centered around the 23rd. Good signal for long range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Sorry this is kinda old news but I was busy trying to explain habeas corpus to teenagers... last nights EPS towards the end was moving towards the look we want to get snow in a -EPO+NAO regime. The look before that for a few days with a huge PNA/EPO ridge is a dry look. A huge full lat western ridge overwhelms the pattern and pushes the trough axis too far east for anything to turn the corner usually. What we want is this look...This is the composite of 13 warning level snowfalls for at least a portion of our region. We want the epo ridge building over the top compressing the flow over the CONUS and and an elongated positively tilted trough SW to NE. This allows enough return flow in the SE to get waves up the east coast. Get enough STJ and it can be a really good pattern. Too much SE ridge and it can be frustrating but assuming the EPO ridge flattens the flow enough it works. The EPS was moving towards that look at the end. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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