Steve25 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: What a great run on that storm next weekend from the 18z GFS...that’s some cold smoke for a little while. Temps start out in the low 20s verbatim for that storm. Good signs. Very intriguing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 A definite improvement from 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherPSU Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 As Dr. Haybear said, "When there is fog, expect snow in 2 weeks to come!" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 And this isn't fantasy land ..its inside D10 Gefs hr 228 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Weeklies recap is easy. The -epo/+pna in general continues through late Feb. No blocking so temps oscillate AN/BN but are cold more often than warm. Looks like a muted version of Feb 2015 for the most part. Considering how winter has gone so far, if the weeklies are right it would be a win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS 0z is a weenie run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 36 hour clean snowstorms happen all the time with no blocking right? 1 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: 36 hour clean snowstorms happen all the time with no blocking right? They say the big ones are sniffed out early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: They say the big ones are sniffed out early. True but need confirmation. If it shows up on the cmc or euro I'm all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS 0z is a weenie run. Weenie run of the season I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Weenie run of the season I'd say. It's full winter in a week. Snow to sleet to ice to build a concrete base then a widespread 8-12" cold powder followed by the deep freeze. Winter automatically gets a B grade from me if that happens 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Love the look on the GFS for next weekend. Been consistant now for showing winter weather for a few runs. The Fantasy snow 300+ hours out is fun to look at but a few more days and we can start taking next weekend more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 0z CMC has the arctic air dumping further south and east into the center of the country by next weekend, with some moderate cold bleeding south and east of that. Develops an initial wave that moves along the front with a rain/snow mix for our area, then as the colder air gets further entrenched on the east coast on Sunday, it develops a low along the coast to our SE and snows on NC and SE VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: True but need confirmation. If it shows up on the cmc or euro I'm all in So, did it show up on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro 0z and GFS 6z are north for MLK weekend storm threat. Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction. Will check GEFS when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Euro and GFS are north for MLK weekend storm threat. Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction. Probably would worry more about what the ensembles saw and from what I see they were a win. Less emphasis with a cutter into the lakes and more emphasis with forcing low pressure to the East. Seeing better High Pressure over top the storm (more of a banana high). Also like the 50/50 low positioning better as well. eta: My bad, actually was only referring to the EPS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro 0z and GFS 6z are north for MLK weekend storm threat. Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction. Will check GEFS when it comes out.Its right. Gfs caved and was always bs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Euro 0z and GFS 6z are north for MLK weekend storm threat. Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction. Will check GEFS when it comes out. Its right. Gfs caved and was always bs How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Probably would worry more about what the ensembles saw and from what I see they were a win. Less emphasis with a cutter into the lakes and more emphasis with forcing low pressure to the East. Seeing better High Pressure over top the storm (more of a banana high). Also like the 50/50 low positioning better as well. EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There is your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early but EPS wasnt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6z GEFS looks good to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 This isnt a bad look. 50/50, ridging nosing into GL, elongated/splitting PV, ridging S Central Canada near HB and nosing SE, neutral PNA, ull or vort pass near region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There us your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early still but EPS wasnt bad. I liked what I was seeing on the EPS. Seeing the changes we need to see and a move in the right direction for more frozen. As far as the GEFS, it is still in flux with what it wants to do. So for now I am riding the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 6z GEFS looks good to me. Was a decent look but I am not sure how much I trust the GEFS at this time. It is all over the place with the timing the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: Was a decent look but I am not sure how much I trust the GEFS at this time. It is all over the place with the timing the last few runs. It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I also like the EPS and even though verbatim it is a nice look for SNE next weekend, it is not far off at all from being a good outcome for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time. That is all I meant. Still looks like we flip to a colder stormier pattern Next weekend. That does not guarantee snow storms but puts us back in the game. There is strong consensus in the modeling that there are No threats before MLK weekend. Enjoy the Outdoors this weekend. Might turn back on the water and wash the car. That will guarantee bad weather next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend. Don't look now but some of the things I am seeing have me wondering if the GEFS is considering trying to bring something up from the south as the cold front pushes through on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Don't look now but some of the things I am seeing have me wondering if the GEFS is considering trying to bring something up from the south as the cold front pushes through on Thursday. You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it. Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 No shortage of trackable chances. Lets just hope one or 2 remain legit inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it. Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time. Speak for yourself. As PSU would say, Move north young man, move north. Think this may be why we are seeing the GEFS having issues with the weekend. It isn't sure what it wants to do Thursday as of yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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