Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Never said it would. Just trying to find something positive to say about some crappy overnight runs. Honestly, I am starting to think we may not see anything substantial winter weather wise until at least the 3rd week of January but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Honestly, I am starting to think we may not see anything substantial winter weather wise until at least the 3rd week of January but we'll see. Heading out for the week to hit up family and a couple of Casinos so I won't be following as much as i normally would. But when we get back Sunday I have a very strong suspicion that what we currently see projected for the 10-15/16 day period will bear little resemblance to what we actually see next Sunday. Especially in regards to the PAC. Currently we are seeing a flat PAC flow into the West and I just don't buy it. Think we are going to see amplification with the long wave pattern through that region and it will just be a matter of where the troughing and ridging sets up and that will be determined by what pv presence we see around Alaska and its placement. By Sunday I strongly believe we will be looking at either a very sweet look for the PAC if we see the pv feature in that region rotate out around the Aleutians. Or conversely we could be looking at an absolute dumpster fire if that feature sets up shop on top of Alaska and we see a subsequent western trough extend down into the perpetual weakness we have seen in the SW these last few years. I see arguments for either case so which plays out is a coin flip in my mind. As far as the NAO? Who the hell knows. That will pretty much depend on where we see the major pv set up shop when it shifts eastward. Right now both models place it in one of the worst spots possible. They could be right but then again they are just as likely to be wrong and it wouldn't take much of shift to drastically improve the look.. So I guess what I am saying is, take what we are currently seeing on the models with a grain of salt because more then likely this is not what we see in a weeks time and the differences between a sweet look and a crap look are just a matter of some minor adjustments/placements of a couple of features. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The overnight runs don’t look too bad to me...average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Honestly, I am starting to think we may not see anything substantial winter weather wise until at least the 3rd week of January but we'll see. So we're punting January again this year is what you mean. I'm starting to get use to non winters. I just hope I get my 1 week of winter at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, dailylurker said: So we're punting January again this year is what you mean. I'm starting to get use to non winters. I just hope I get my 1 week of winter at some point this winter. 3rd week of March will rock! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3rd week of March will rock! Accumulation on grassy surfaces and car tops followed by a flooding nor'easter with 60 mph winds. Book it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Not a great sign when Bamwx seems ready to pull the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 7 hours ago, cbmclean said: PV bouncing around in all the wrong places? It’s not the bouncing around. It’s that it starts to intensify and consolidate. Opposite of what we want. Goes from this... to this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 WeatherBell (Both D'Aleo and JB) indicate that their analog years have it warm around the holiday season. Indicate MJO also was in the warm phases during this time. Latest Pioneer long range and the CPC run is cold for January. I guess we will know in another month if they were right. The theme this year is enjoy the good holiday travel and don't start to panic until about the first week of January if the pattern still looks boring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not the bouncing around. It’s that it starts to intensify and consolidate. Opposite of what we want. Not pretty. The +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta provides literally no mechanism for cold air delivery into the mid latitudes. Hopefully it is a temporary state, or the guidance is currently overstating that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not the bouncing around. It’s that it starts to intensify and consolidate. Opposite of what we want. Admit I am a little surprised but not totally. Yes we had the good wave 1 and 2 events but nothing timed up correctly and lasted long enough. I am sure there is more to it than than that . When the vortex was in a state more prone to further attacks , it was like , is that all you have ? And hence the bounce back.But not worth the time to even figure it out. I have not read about the latest forecasts regarding the precursor pattern that was posted last week from Ventrice. This strengthening is more camp two of Isotherm and stating the atmosphere and drivers were not conducive to weaken the vortex this season until later or not at all. If so expect the HL to continue to look poor. In terms of retrogression and blocks and just because this post by HM is interesting . He posted it just because it is cool. Seems there is always a monkey wrench thrown into the winter. Of course with the run to run changes it is silly to worry. Everyone so far has been proven incorrect at least in some form or fashion about this December, not surprising given the abundant weak signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not pretty. The +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta provides literally no mechanism for cold air delivery into the mid latitudes. Hopefully it is a temporary state, or the guidance is currently overstating that look. I hope. But att guidance is accelerating the start of that regime and intensifying the look. If true this one is a gut punch. You all know I am an optimist when warranted but I don’t pull punches either when it’s bad. This would be a gut punch. My optimism has centered on the fact the high latitudes have looked persistently favorable imo. Even when the tpv was unfavorably locates there was still ridging intruding into the high latitudes somewhere. An unfavorable tpv location can be a fast recovery issue. It’s unlikeky a compact tpv stays stationary for long. But a huge intense vortex taking over the whole High latitudes can be a whole season problem. Seeing this blows up what I was handing my hat on. That said I’ll end on the only positive which is the guidance could be wrong and sometimes that look can be temporary. It’s not much but it’s all I got. I may take a break for a while because I’m not going to blow smoke but I also don’t want to fill up the thread with doom and gloom. So until I see some positive signs I’ll probably lay low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Looking at the tropical forcing forecasts now compared to 5-10 days ago, I think some of the issue is that the west IO standing wave was forecast to quickly diminish, and now that’s no longer true. It’s weakening, but not to the degree that was previously forecast. Similarly, the subsidence over the west Pac (where we ideally want strong convection) is also persisting into early January. The decline of the IOD says that that pattern will get shaken loose, but it seems to be taking longer than expected. I think the MJO phase 6 shown on those phase diagrams is really a mix of the IO standing wave in phase 2 or so and a little bit of convection that starts to fire over the maritime continent in the next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Looking back at the last 10 days of November for the CFS it was remarkable how it changed so quickly. I use to read it was in its wheelhouse 15 days before the start of the new month, but after looking at the past 6 months and combining that some notes posted by a couple climate/seasonal mets the CFS is not really stable and in its wheelhouse until the month is almost over. ( forecasting the next month ) So, I say what good is it ? Maybe for trends, as I have noted times that it is incorrect even when it is in the existing forecast month. I expect it to warm up for Jan in the next few days. I believe the trend to warmer has started already. Whether it is, or will be correct is difficult to determine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not the bouncing around. It’s that it starts to intensify and consolidate. Opposite of what we want. Goes from this... to this.... Yep a positive AO/NAO and EPO, not a very inviting look for snow around DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Yep a positive AO/NAO and EPO, not a very inviting look for snow around DC.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 @frd wrt isotherms forecast...his ideas wrt to tpv seen good now but a lot of what he used as causality I don’t see. AAM has only been slightly low lately after a short period slightly above normal early Dec. And now it’s rising and forecast to enter a high state soon. Furthermore we have most definitely not been in a Nina like pattern. A lot of what he expected December to lead to where we are now didn’t take place. Yet we may now be where he predicted anyways. Hopefully this isn’t then as a shot at isotherm, it’s simply I am highly skeptical of all seasonal forecasts (anything past 2 weeks) including my own. They are all predictions based on predictions based on predictions. Sometimes $&@& just happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Not a great sign when Bamwx seems ready to pull the plug. Last week they were all in on a great January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 So the CFS weeklies for the first time in history show BN temps and AN precip for a period during the winter and now this? People are correct when they say expect the complete opposite of what that model shows I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So the CFS weeklies for the first time in history show BN temps and AN precip for a period during the winter and now this? People are correct when they say expect the complete opposite of what that model shows I suppose. Too far out to say what's going to happen. The models could easily flip back . There is still cold around so I dont know why people are in panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 This MJO loop back to phase 5 is not a promising one for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Almost all AO members are positive heading into Jan per latest indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Almost all AO members are positive heading into Jan per latest indices. The background state 50/50 that we had for weeks is fading as well on the ens LR. When it rains it pours, pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This MJO loop back to phase 5 is not a promising one for the long range. I’d be very surprised if that complete loop took place. My experience is that those loops mostly don’t happen, and if they do, they quickly resume forward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The background state 50/50 that we had for weeks is fading as well on the ens LR. When it rains it pours, pun intended. Not gonna see much 50-50 low action with a +NAO. 50-50 highs are going to be more likely. The currently advertised LR h5 pattern is pretty much the inversion of what we want to see. Is it correct? Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d be very surprised if that complete loop took place. My experience is that those loops mostly don’t happen, and if they do, they quickly resume forward progress. It doesn’t really happen when there’s a coherent MJO wave. Right now there’s not one though which is why that phase diagram looks that way, it’s trying to put multiple conflicting signals into a single number. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It doesn’t really happen when there’s a coherent MJO wave. Right now there’s not one though which is why that phase diagram looks that way, it’s trying to put multiple conflicting signals into a single number. For the record you're really good at explaining things in a clear concise manner. It's just a shame you live in Maryland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: A lot of what he expected December to lead to where we are now didn’t take place. Yet we may now be where he predicted anyways. Hopefully this isn’t then as a shot at isotherm, it’s simply I am highly skeptical of all seasonal forecasts (anything past 2 weeks) including my own. They are all predictions based on predictions based on predictions. Sometimes $&@& just happens. I am very skeptical myself. Just when I thought I had a logical progression things turn the other way. When I read about the delayed atmospheric response to the weakening + IOD I started to worry a couple weeks ago, but felt the HL may bail us out. Now that seems a no go. Until proper Pacific forcing becomes more prominent and assertive we have to wait. The opposite of last year at this time in regards to the SSWE. Several mets ( not here at American ) have reversed their position only to reverse it again and then again. Wonder what BAMWX energy clients are saying? . No one has the hot hand currently. More on topic - Another interesting long range observation, and I believe also mentioned by Isotherm, was the - NAO was verifying not as negative the past 3 to 6 weeks. When you actually look at the readings ( yes debate over what is a - NAO verus blocking acknowledged ) ) we really have not experienced a deep NAO state except on one occasion. Certainly everything has been rather progressive. The wave breaks have been beneficial and I would guess have helped those further North. Looking back a bit further, it was hard to keep the previous decent NAO drop going when we had that robust - EPO I believe. psu I also can't help but feel all our cold air outbreaks from early November to mid December were caused by mostly HL and strat related events ( wave 2 etc. ) such as displacements and elongations including one event that was barotropic related. Losing the HL and vortex disruptions and elongations are a real bummer. I felt early in the season the HL and elongations may be favoring Eastern North America but now it seems that mechanism is fading. Of course we could return to it later, as a consequence of an improving Pac and increased attempts to weaken the vortex, a.k.a the Isotherm seasonal evolution, or as is typical in some Nino years. One final note about the HL is the fact that the QBO might become a bigger player by mid Feb through March. I know folks refer to shear stress as well with the QBO at 30 and 50, but those references are above my pay grade. Hopefully an improving Pac will coincide with an improved NAM state later in the season via the descending QBO including seasonal vortex weakening. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @frd wrt isotherms forecast...his ideas wrt to tpv seen good now but a lot of what he used as causality I don’t see. AAM has only been slightly low lately after a short period slightly above normal early Dec. And now it’s rising and forecast to enter a high state soon. Furthermore we have most definitely not been in a Nina like pattern. A lot of what he expected December to lead to where we are now didn’t take place. Yet we may now be where he predicted anyways. Hopefully this isn’t then as a shot at isotherm, it’s simply I am highly skeptical of all seasonal forecasts (anything past 2 weeks) including my own. They are all predictions based on predictions based on predictions. Sometimes $&@& just happens. Hi, @psuhoffman -- regarding your inquiry. The modality of the AAM, as in, positive or negative, is not most integral - but rather - the distribution and transport of angular momentum through the hemispheres. My analyses pre-season indicated unpropitious transports, that would likely countermand the development and maintenance of significant/sustained high latitude blocking structures for much of the winter season. There's more to the entire methodology as well, so, what is stated in the outlook is only a skeleton of what I've analyzed. But, as said, the AAM distribution in concert with other variables, such as QBO timing/diminution, Hadley, Walker Cell behavior, among other factors, were all utilized. We'll see how the rest of the winter progresses. However, the present model/NWP trending in recent days largely comports with my expectations. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3rd week of March will rock! And a below normal April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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