Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Only one day gets above freezing from the 20th to the 25th on the GFS, and even that is barely above freezing. Good stuff! GFS/GEFS has been terrible with temps in the LR. WAAAY too cold all winter. Don't get me wrong, it looks like we'll turn colder in 8 days or so but unlikely to be as cold as the gfs says. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looking forward to the cold but let's keep expectations in check given the climatology of the GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GFS/GEFS has been terrible with temps in the LR. WAAAY too cold all winter. Don't get me wrong, it looks like we'll turn colder in 8 days or so but unlikely to be as cold as the gfs says. Thank you for the reality check. Still happy to see it trending in a colder direction. Love sub-freezing stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 32 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Getting way too ahead of myself, but I'm also keeping in the back of my mind that if the Ravens win this week, they will be playing in Baltimore at 3 PM on Sunday the 19th, so being that were looking at some potential around that time, I'm extra glued to what might happen I was thinking the exact same thing as well. Haven't had too many snow games. The Ravens-Vikings game in 2013 was a lot of fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Don S update from a few minutes ago in the NYC forum. I like it ! <<< Quick pattern evolution thoughts... The base case as per historical data has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and then 8. More of the guidance is showing a move into Phase 7 in the extended range. The GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at an amplitude > 2.000. Passage of the MJO into and through Phase 7 and very high amplitudes during the second half of January have typically seen trough development in the East and a snowy February. These developments suggest that the potential for a pattern change away from the much above normal warmth (with short breaks) for the first half of January are increasing for the second half of the month. The closing week has the potential to see the onset of a sustained colder pattern. >>> 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z GEFS is trending favorably towards a -AO towards the end of the run. Has been hinting at this signal for several runs now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: GFS/GEFS has been terrible with temps in the LR. WAAAY too cold all winter. Don't get me wrong, it looks like we'll turn colder in 8 days or so but unlikely to be as cold as the gfs says. yea man...we dont want deep freeze cold where everything is surpressed...ill be happy with 28 and precip way more than 15 and precip in georgia haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Nobody ever posts the Euro because it has been perpetually bad since Christmas at least and probably prior. This is hilarious that you keep chasing this stuff. Enjoy the almost historic torch and just imagine that you are experiencing the other end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Nobody ever posts the Euro because it has been perpetually bad since Christmas at least and probably prior. This is hilarious that you keep chasing this stuff. Enjoy the almost historic torch and just imagine that you are experiencing the other end of the spectrum. What the hell are you talking about? The Euro/EPS is discussed in detail every.single.run. The EPS has actually been the front runner showing the shift back to a colder regime in the east. Enjoy your delusional life. 12 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Nobody ever posts the Euro because it has been perpetually bad since Christmas at least and probably prior. This is hilarious that you keep chasing this stuff. Enjoy the almost historic torch and just imagine that you are experiencing the other end of the spectrum. Someone hasn't been paying much attention to this forum outside of the past 2 hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 what is the 12z Euro showing precip wise next weekend. It looks very cold on Sunday verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: what is the 12z Euro showing precip wise next weekend. It looks very cold on Sunday verbatim it looks like a cutter/northern track system. It actually had snow at D10 on the 00z run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: what is the 12z Euro showing precip wise next weekend. It looks very cold on Sunday verbatim Looks like brief snow/mix to rain. Highs not in a great position for cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: it looks like a cutter/northern track system. It actually had snow at D10 on the 00z run for us Euro brings precip in on Saturday. Looks like Rain followed by a very cold Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Someone hasn't been paying much attention to this forum outside of the past 2 hours... and too much attention to the bong.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: it looks like a cutter/northern track system. It actually had snow at D10 on the 00z run for us [opens weenie rule book] Euro has been consistently too amped in the long range so it will correct south [closes weenie rule book] 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, yoda said: Freezer notice on the 12z GFS after MLK day That looks like -20 to possibly -30 850’s for ski resorts if MD/PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: That looks like -20 to possibly -30 850’s for ski resorts if MD/PA? i feel like all MLK days seem to be very cold and dry haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 i think the snowstorm threw most non weather people off---they are thinking the pattern change starts Friday and will last only a week before maybe going cold. The fact is the pattern has been terrible since Dec 20 and we got a lucky window. In the end...if the pattern does change..it will be from a bad pattern that went from Dec 20 to Jan 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the snowstorm threw most non weather people off---they are thinking the pattern change starts Friday and will last only a week before maybe going cold. The fact is the pattern has been terrible since Dec 20 and we got a lucky window. In the end...if the pattern does change..it will be from a bad pattern that went from Dec 20 to Jan 20 It was 2 different bad patterns though. Dec 20-Jan 1 was a AK vortex -AO pattern. We have been in a pattern flux this week as the NAM flips very positive and the PV centers itself more over the pole/NAO side. During the transition we got some luck as a transient ridge traversed the PNA space...actually the ridge that will get here this weekend and lock in for a week. So we had one bad pattern...and transition week...and now another bad pattern... after that it looks like the next pattern might be more hospitable to sustained cold and snow threats but its too soon to know for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It was 2 different bad patterns though. Dec 20-Jan 1 was a AK vortex -AO pattern. We have been in a pattern flux this week as the NAM flips very positive and the PV centers itself more over the pole/NAO side. During the transition we got some luck as a transient ridge traversed the PNA space...actually the ridge that will get here this weekend and lock in for a week. So we had one bad pattern...and transition week...and now another bad pattern... after that it looks like the next pattern might be more hospitable to sustained cold and snow threats but its too soon to know for sure. Well he just told all of the Real housewives of Loudoun that it locks in next weekend so it better now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 EPS is speeding up the flip to a +PNA/-EPO. Solid by d10-11 in those regions. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is speeding up the flip to a +PNA/-EPO. Solid by d10-11 in those regions. eps looks very "Feb 2015" at day 12. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is speeding up the flip to a +PNA/-EPO. Solid by d10-11 in those regions. One notable improvement on the EPS through day 12, better depth of the trough in the east. That is important because its often what differentiated the "wins" from the "fails" with past similar patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One notable improvement on the EPS through day 12, better depth of the trough in the east. That is important because its often what differentiated the "wins" from the "fails" with past similar patterns. Looking at the multi parameter 850/QPF it looks like the trough axis sets up a little too far east. A lot of ocean storms once the trough digs. Still a number of good solutions here just making the observation that the risk of cold/dry shouldn't be overlooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One notable improvement on the EPS through day 12, better depth of the trough in the east. That is important because its often what differentiated the "wins" from the "fails" with past similar patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looking at the multi parameter 850/QPF it looks like the trough axis sets up a little too far east. A lot of ocean storms once the trough digs. Still a number of good solutions here just making the observation that the risk of cold/dry shouldn't be overlooked. That's why I made that post earlier today saying I would prefer a -EPO -PNA look. That eliminates the cold/dry issue...we would need to get the SE ridge suppressed enough but that setup leads to a snowy outcome more often than the full latitude EPO/PNA ridge. It's very hard to get something to "turn the corner" in that look. Its usually cold/dry. This is assuming a +NAO for both scenarios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's why I made that post earlier today saying I would prefer a -EPO -PNA look. That eliminates the cold/dry issue...we would need to get the SE ridge suppressed enough but that setup leads to a snowy outcome more often than the full latitude EPO/PNA ridge. It's very hard to get something to "turn the corner" in that look. Its usually cold/dry. This is assuming a +NAO for both scenarios... Yea, beggars can't be choosers here. Even with the issues it's still magnitudes better than where we are over the next 8 days. Crawl, walk, and run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking at the multi parameter 850/QPF it looks like the trough axis sets up a little too far east. A lot of ocean storms once the trough digs. Still a number of good solutions here just making the observation that the risk of cold/dry shouldn't be overlooked. Yeah it has the look of a tendency towards that overall. I will be in chase mode until the very end of the month. Mountains, or with that look maybe a coastal scraper will take me back to the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Geez it didnt take long for the pattern change to end in disaster At least there will still be cutters when a sw amps to our west with that +NAO, so not totally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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