psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If the monster EPO ridge on all guidance is correct we do not "NEED" the AO/NAO to tank...but we do need it to pull back towards neutral or slightly positive which is what the EPS and GEPS is showing. The GEFS keeps swinging wildly between flipping the NAM negative or not but its been a hot mess lately and should be given much less weight until it starts showing some consistency. The GEPS and EPS especially have been much more consistent with a common progression/theme to the pattern evolution. The EPS idea of a neutral AO combined with that EPO ridge and some PNA ridging is just fine. It's not a HECS look but its a cold look and if we keep getting waves coming across with the active STJ and I would take my chances in that pattern. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, frd said: Brilliant, because too many times in the past we have had the rug pulled form under us. Also, I am in it for a sustainable period of cold, along with snow as well please. Too many transient cold periods, I hope we lock into a longer period of cold and storm potential. some people KNOW what's going to happen...I am not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there. Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just saw the 6z GFS fantasy storm. Woooo boy. That looks fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 35 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Just saw the 6z GFS fantasy storm. Woooo boy. That looks fun. I find it hard to trust the new GFS after last winter when it was the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I find it hard to trust the new GFS after last winter when it was the FV3. I don't either, but fun to look at. It's kinda like buying a lottery ticket before the actual drawing. It's fun to dream lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Interesting. Snow/ice to rain look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs gets us back into winter weather as early as next weekend. I really like seeing all of canada very cold. Really nice CAD going on. Ninja'd by @C.A.P.E. I type to slow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Interesting. Snow/ice to rain look. Yeah GFS throwing it out there d9/10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Little bit of a CAD in that image! Check out the ridging across GL at the same time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 There is some divergence in the long range regarding the PNA. The euro is trending towards a PNA ridge...where the GEPS and GFS continue a -PNA. If the NAO remains positive and we get an EPO ridge (all 3 agree on that) I would actually rather a -PNA. 2015 was a great example of a -EPO+PNA+NAO working but there are more examples of that pattern failing. Feb 2015 Feb 1995 AFTER the one snowfall early in the month that took place BEFORE the EPO ridge set up. I could show more examples but frankly 2015 was an anomaly...historically a full latitude PNA/EPO ridge with a +NAO is a dry progressive pattern and when storms do happen they tend to have to amplify so much to come up they end up cutting. On the other hand...there are more examples of a -EPO/-PNA/+NAO pattern working. The key would be the depth of the trough and the alignment. Best example of a win with that look... Feb 2003 An example where our area did OK...but the best results were just North Feb 1994 An example of a fail in that look Feb 1989 You can clearly see the depth of the trough determined the outcome. 1989 the trough was simply not deep enough to keep the boundary south of us. 1994 the boundary ended up right through our region and 2003...well we all remember that. But there are more examples of that pattern leading to a snowy outcome here than the 2015 EPO/PNA ridge look. All of this is predicated on the NAO remaining positive. If the NAO goes negative either look suddenly becomes favorable and none of this matters. The details of all of this remain outside reliable forecast range...this is just to give a profile of what the different options look like. But a SW to NE oriented trough through North America under an EPO ridge with a suppressed SE ridge is a very good look to get progressive waves running at us with cold available, provided the trough ends up suppressed enough by the EPO ridge. The full latitude western ridge look has more mixed results with a couple "wins" March 1993 and Feb 2015 to name some, but a lot of total fails also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out. Huh? It shows frozen within 2 weeks. Considering where we were just 2 days ago, I’m not sure how this is a loss. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Little bit of a CAD in that image! Check out the ridging across GL at the same time... Yeah that is a really decent h5 look. Nice to continually see the ops spit out these chances, and sooner than we all thought a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Huh? It shows frozen within 2 weeks. Considering where we were just 2 days ago, I’m not sure how this is a loss. Long range OP and all, but verbatim thats several inches of snow followed by several hours of icing then dry slot. Sign me up please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS OP is decent snow to ice and maybe some drizzle/light rain to end if dry slot doesn't get here first... taking that run and running with it lol ETA: @Chris78 beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Huh? It shows frozen within 2 weeks. Considering where we were just 2 days ago, I’m not sure how this is a loss. I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Most interested what happens after the cutter, near the 21 st to 24 th time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Freezer notice on the 12z GFS after MLK day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, frd said: Most interested what happens after the cutter, near the 21 st to 24 th time period. All guidance is starting to hit the EPO block hard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Interesting. Snow/ice to rain look. Ensembles have already been clueing in on the 19th and low and behold that’s what the Op throws out. And snow-ice-rain is a very plausible outcome in the longwave pattern late next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Some big time cold behind the snow/ice/rain storm on the GFS. Stuck in the 20's for a few days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Getting way too ahead of myself, but I'm also keeping in the back of my mind that if the Ravens win this week, they will be playing in Baltimore at 3 PM on Sunday the 19th, so being that were looking at some potential around that time, I'm extra glued to what might happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles have already been clueing in on the 19th and low and behold that’s what the Op throws out. And snow-ice-rain is a very plausible outcome in the longwave pattern late next week. Yep, we'll prob see numerous versions of what the GFS just spit out. Perfectly fits the lr pattern on the ens. All options on the table of course but if there is a precip event during the d9-12 period it will likely not be all snow but could still be plenty of frozen. Beyond that (and way out there in fantasyland) things could evolve towards a clean snow setup. So far everything remains on track for a return to winter sometime around the 18th. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Pretty good antecdent cold airmass before that storm next saturday night too so things would really stick and ice up good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 As others have mentioned here regarding the MJO, overall change to colder might have legs into Feb . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Here is an IOD update. Keep in mind the influence continues from this record setting event and it is still a pattern driver to a degree, but is gradually losing its effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Beyond that (and way out there in fantasyland) things could evolve towards a clean snow setup Another thing to keep in mind is whether we get a surprise transient NAO block as previously it was in a couple Euro Control runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Some respectable cold right here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Only one day gets above freezing from the 20th to the 25th on the GFS, and even that is barely above freezing. Good stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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