Ji Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. LolI'm sure well get the worst possible solution from this chart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking better and better up top. TPV displaced southward and ridging building over GL. Got the EPO ridge going a bit bonkers too. So now the gefs looks better than the eps haha..its like a tennis match Yeah and if that HL look is legit, there will be a series of cold fronts moving through and the tendency for eastern ridging will be replaced by a mean trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out. nahhhh... ice storms are easy peasy... just look at the GFS.. it shows it in pink and it goes out like 400 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS 6z is perfect for everyone. If only it would come true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: GFS 6z is perfect for everyone. If only it would come true. Quite the run, pinks and hot pinks everywhere, fantasy land. Advertisement still there though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Quite the run, pinks and hot pinks everywhere, fantasy land. Advertisement still there though the overall theme seems to be change for the better. I think we have a good basis for optimism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6z GFS advertising some nice signs. Our future is starting to look bright. Hopefully bright white! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: the overall theme seems to be change for the better. I think we have a good basis for optimism. Good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: 6z GFS advertising some nice signs. Our future is starting to look bright. Hopefully bright white! Still must be dreaming on my way to work...WB GFS Clown Map Day 13....everyone can be happy for 6 hours. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Quick look but the Eps has slowed the first initial cold push for late next week and Gefs sped things up . Gefs has a decent cold shot coming in Thursday morning. Eps a couple days later and not as deep as its 12z run yesterday. I'm talking just the day 8-9 timeframe. A look at h5 and Gefs and Eps reversed roles ...mainly with how they handle the vortex in sw Canada/ NW US . Eps was elongating it sooner and breaking a piece off that moves to the 50/50 local . Gefs now does this to a degree and Eps keeps it consolidated longer this run but eventually elongates it but 850 temperatures aren't as impressive into the east US Just 1 run and I'm just talking through day 9 ish . Of note ...Eps does look much much better then the Gefs down the line day 11 + . Night and day difference actually . Maybe Showme or someone else has time to post some maps . I've read a number of times over the years about the vortex breaking a piece off. Is that a normal process with the vortex and can that be forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Quick look but the Eps has slowed the first initial cold push for late next week and Gefs sped things up . Gefs has a decent cold shot coming in Thursday morning. Eps a couple days later and not as deep as its 12z run yesterday. I'm talking just the day 8-9 timeframe. A look at h5 and Gefs and Eps reversed roles ...mainly with how they handle the vortex in sw Canada/ NW US . Eps was elongating it sooner and breaking a piece off that moves to the 50/50 local . Gefs now does this to a degree and Eps keeps it consolidated longer this run but eventually elongates it but 850 temperatures aren't as impressive into the east US Just 1 run and I'm just talking through day 9 ish . Of note ...Eps does look much much better then the Gefs down the line day 11 + . Night and day difference actually . Maybe Showme or someone else has time to post some maps . I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 That's quite the progression of the Pac ridge blob into the EPO and moving into the AO towards the end of the OP run. Usual caveat...it's an op run at range but that's one way to potentially make Feb a very memorable one. I also like how the Pac death ridge was replaced with a strong trof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 LOL, go look at the MJO forecast now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward. I'll take a neutral AO over one with +2SD. If I remember that scatter plot Wes posted I don't recall many if any good snows with AO above 2. Could be wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward. Saw that. The GEFS took 2 steps back irt the Atl from 18z. Now shows a ridge at the 50/50 and a trof over the NAO region. Has the EPO ridge and the neutral AO you mentioned. Doesnt mean it's not a workable look just pointing out the Atl changes at HL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, go look at the MJO forecast now Getting closer to reaching 8/1 maybe with some high amplitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, H2O said: I'll take a neutral AO over one with +2SD. If I remember that scatter plot Wes posted I don't recall many if any good snows with AO above 2. Could be wrong. A raging +AO is almost certain death to snow chances around here. If we end up with sustained +heights in the EPO/WPO space, it would be difficult for the AO to be severely positive though. A neutral to somewhat +AO is probably what we are looking at going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. It appears now that the TPV takes up home on our side, maybe in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. So, a readily available cold air source. Maybe this potential set-up creates a more conducive environment regarding the NAM state , as mentioned previously, anything closer to neutral would be a lot better than right now. I will ride any improvements in AO and the PNA states, would love to get some favorable indices later in the month. If we do, that in itself will lend a lot more confidence that we can track a legitimate threat for the coastal areas, my area and your area included. psu already got his 5 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Will be interesting to track the continued changes moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I've read a number of times over the years about the vortex breaking a piece off. Is that a normal process with the vortex and can that be forecasted? I will answer this wrt occurrences in the troposphere, because thats what we are concerned with as it directly impacts sensible weather. It's pretty common during winter for vortices to shed off and rotate southward in the troposphere, especially when a ridge builds up into the HL region. You can see this on the 6z GFS panel that Ralph posted with that big anticyclone building in the EPO region. Better yet go and advance through the run at h5 and you can see the process occurring. Models do ok with predicting them, but getting the timing and depth correct is difficult at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Still must be dreaming on my way to work...WB GFS Clown Map Day 13....everyone can be happy for 6 hours. Of note, the GFS has the Jan 22 threat, and while taking a quick look this morning the Euro Control has a snow event for the Eastern areas for Jan 20th . There is potential between Jan 20 th and the 24 th. and probably beyond as well. At least the option to track versus getting a tan. Also, some indications we may be trending to a + PNA look way out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 EPS at range looks great for pressing cold and not overwhelming cold. I could care less if the bay freezes over. Nice to see HP in western Can that seems to just linger while nosing SE. GEFS has pretty much the same look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 So y’all are saying there’s a chance... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, poolz1 said: EPS at range looks great for pressing cold and not overwhelming cold. I could care less if the bay freezes over. Nice to see HP in western Can that seems to just linger while nosing SE. GEFS has pretty much the same look. Good post, and you might enjoy this read I brought from Tip over in the NE forum regarding the coming - EPO .... see bold section From Tip : < Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members. As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold. I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc. The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct. We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes. But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone. In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks! There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here. > 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mersky said: I said it wound keep correcting but got called out for saying so. You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, pasnownut said: You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT. Other more established(knowledgeable) posters have said the same thing. @WxUSAF comes to mind. Mersky seems to have a need to brag about "predicting" something he likely read multiple times elsewhere. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The Australian long range MJO forecast was all in during the fall with us going through 7-8-1 in the heart of our best climo. The majority of the spaghetti plots still go through 8 but at a low amplitude. They dont make it to 1 though. I didnt keep records back in 93' 94'. I was in Loudoun then and I do remember it being very icy. I found a pretty good site with write ups on some of the worst storms of that season: https://tornadogenius.fandom.com/wiki/1993-94_United_States_winter_storm_season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there. By that time...phase 3/4 become more friendly also...and that is important if a wave fires in the IO it gives us more time in cold phases. A death near the dateline followed by a new wave initiation off Africa would give us a nice long extended run without MJO destructive interference. I have been skeptical of favorable MJO help. I am still not dancing in the streets but less pessimistic than a week ago. I know the bias in the guidance is to kill off waves early...but the last wave did die before cold phases, the waters near the MC are boiling, and the guidance was suggesting a stall/loop there which isn't unheard of (last year). But recent developments would favor wave propagation...but I will feel better once those projections get within 10 days. For now things look favorable for a colder period late January into February. Snow...TBD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But recent developments would favor wave propagation...but I will feel better once those projections get within 10 days. For now things look favorable for a colder period late January into February. Snow...TBD Brilliant, because too many times in the past we have had the rug pulled form under us. Also, I am in it for a sustainable period of cold, along with snow as well please. Too many transient cold periods, I hope we lock into a longer period of cold and storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now