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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Most memorable from 94 was the day it was 11 at 11am and 1 at 5pm, overnight low record tying (for me) -6.

Didn’t we also have a day where it snowed about 2-3 inches in the afternoon with a temperature at DCA of 7?

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree. It was an incredibly cold winter with lots of record low max hi's  and lows and lots of ICE and MIXED events.  A couple days with Highs near 0 to 5 above ( Sparky probably has records)

The one event I got 4-5" of sleet and 20 miles north big snow totals 

Yup. I remember being up in York PA that January and there was 10-12 inches on the ground while I had about 3-4 in Reisterstown and about 6-7 in my current location. 

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Looking at the EPS D10-15 members...a lot of slow moving arctic fronts with waves moving riding the fronts.  Some we win and some we dont.  Obviously, ens arent going to pick up on a threat like they would if we had a miller A out of the gulf.   Again, reminiscent of 14/15. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results. 

93/94 had such a crazy sharp gradient between places that had a ton of snow and not much.  You didn’t have to go far. The closest coop to here in Millers had 44” that winter. That’s only a little above normal but they had snow otg from early January until late March. An incredible run.   It seemed like every storm here was like 4” of snow followed by lots of ice. Places not far north of here stayed all snow and had 70”+ that winter.  Every storm followed a similar track vs 2015 and 2014 which shifted the boundary around enough to get more regions into the fun.

One caution, 2014 was the best but it had a helpful AO much of the time and even some NAO help in periods. If we get the ridge bridge look on the gefs and geps 2014 could be a good match. 

E5A95F5A-0694-45BD-8CA2-84C5BFDC14E1.png.71419844e1ac53d01b8560fae3cfb9e5.png

But if the AO stays positive like the Euro that puts us into a pattern more like Feb 1993, 1994, and 2015.  

8440669C-B47D-4AD3-B70A-5C98567BC341.png.811bf76a4ba91fb209c19457b65215da.png

2015 was the best and it could go down that way again, but the other 2 had a lot of frustration with a string of snowstorms missing just to the northwest.  But that look is still light years better than anything lately but given our choice the GEFS look with the epo AND tanking NAM is the better option to get everyone into the action imo. 

 

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2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

There was a lot of ice even up here although I lived in reisterstown then. I think I was around 30. Probably broke 40 up here. The snow line ran more north/south with a lot of systems that year if memory serves. Being west helped some but not as much as usual unless you were more northwest.

This is the snowfall recorded by the coop in Millers a few miles east of us. We have a little elevation advantage but I find their totals to be close to ours most storms. 

26F84B00-8896-4F1C-8B19-7EB29D9B3924.thumb.png.c7a65c6a776cd9174a31817138fe6fe2.png

The second to last number is snowfall, the last is depth.  They had snowcover from the storm on Jan 4th until sometime after the one on March 18th!

 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the snowfall recorded by the coop in Millers a few miles east of us. We have a little elevation advantage but I find their totals to be close to ours most storms. 

26F84B00-8896-4F1C-8B19-7EB29D9B3924.thumb.png.c7a65c6a776cd9174a31817138fe6fe2.png

The second to last number is snowfall, the last is depth.  They had snowcover from the storm on Jan 4th until sometime after the one on March 18th!

 

That's an amazing run. The total snowfall for the season is pretty much what I thought. Thanks. I love looking at historical records like this.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the snowfall recorded by the coop in Millers a few miles east of us. We have a little elevation advantage but I find their totals to be close to ours most storms. 

26F84B00-8896-4F1C-8B19-7EB29D9B3924.thumb.png.c7a65c6a776cd9174a31817138fe6fe2.png

The second to last number is snowfall, the last is depth.  They had snowcover from the storm on Jan 4th until sometime after the one on March 18th!

 

You can see that a lot of ice mixed in with the snow even up your way, when you see how much liquid produced some of those snowfalls.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

that would be the most fun storm since jan 2016

18z gefs says tune up your ice scraper. I've never seen so many long range snow to ice storms on an ens run. There are some big snows in the mix but the theme of the run is snow to ice or just ice starting around 1/16 but gets really busy from the 19th onward. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Probably mentioned but Gefs has a few members that throw frozen our way as early as  next Thursday 

Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly 

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results. 

I remember, during one or both of those years, we didn’t have good luck with a - NAO, but got lucky with a 50/50 or PV acting as a -NAO. I don’t remember the details, but it was a fun couple of months both years.  I followed DT at the time and learned a lot about the teleconnections. I didn’t find this forum until later in 2015.  If we can have something along those lines, we should be pretty happy around here. It’s at least, very encouraging. Thank you (and others on here) for all of your long range analysis. It is really appreciated by those of us who don’t know how to read these maps. 

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54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly 

I prefer that way to the alternative where I am loosing sleep because I'm emotionally disturbed by the torch. 

Realistically, not a good look for the SE for frozen, but I will take dry cold shots over Pacific Doom Blob any day.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

March 3 1994 was a heartbreaker...I remember the heavy snow turning into soaking rain

The best if you must have mixed precip is ice to snow.  It’s usually the other way with a departing high.  Snow to ice then ending is not bad either.  Anything that doesn’t involve rain really. 

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47 minutes ago, Ji said:

March 3 1994 was a heartbreaker...I remember the heavy snow turning into soaking rain

I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. Lol

XcMijAI.png

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5 hours ago, HighStakes said:

93-94 was so close to having big totals. It's one thing to have so many mixed events with marginal cold or weak antecedent air masses but to have them in frigid conditions because the depth of the cold was so shallow has got to be a 1 in 200 year type winter. 

It was my first year teaching in Baltimore County Schools.  We missed so many days due to ice that that tacked on 30 minutes to each day for the last month of school.  Also had to teach on Memorial Day.  But the amount of ice was incredible!  Loved it!!

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4 hours ago, HighStakes said:

93-94 was so close to having big totals. It's one thing to have so many mixed events with marginal cold or weak antecedent air masses but to have them in frigid conditions because the depth of the cold was so shallow has got to be a 1 in 200 year type winter. 

Pretty sure I’ve mentioned this before on the boards, but I was in Lewisburg, PA that year. I remember heading up there from South Jersey after winter break on one of the coldest days of that winter, and Philly was covered in ice and steam from all the buildings - like a scene from a Soviet factory city on the Volga or something.

We seemingly got snow after snow after snow, with an icing here and there for good measure. Not sure what we ended up with, but it had to have been 75”, give or take 10” or so. There was fairly deep snow on the ground for weeks and weeks on end - an absolutely unreal stretch of weather that I’m glad to have experienced.

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Pretty sure I’ve mentioned this before on the boards, but I was in Lewisburg, PA that year. I remember heading up there from South Jersey after winter break on one of the coldest days of that winter, and Philly was covered in ice and steam from all the buildings - like a scene from a Soviet factory city on the Volga or something.

We seemingly got snow after snow after snow, with an icing here and there for good measure. Not sure what we ended up with, but it had to have been 75”, give or take 10” or so. There was fairly deep snow on the ground for weeks and weeks on end - an absolutely unreal stretch of weather that I’m glad to have experienced.

The early March storm that year really crushed parts of PA. 

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