HighStakes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Cant really tell with the 24 hr maps, but how does the Euro do in terms of Saturday night? I saw good trends from the other models holding off most precip until after midnight Saturday, curious if Euro agrees Rains holds off until after game is over is not heavy even then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS says welcome back Jan/Feb 2014 and Feb 2015. EPO starts building d6 and much faster with that feature compared to any recent run. Pretty good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wish I had the memory to remember what January/February of 2014 and 2015 were like. I gotta start writing things down so I have something to look back to when I forget! Last really cold stretch I remember I think was the very beginning of January 2018? I remember it being sub-freezing for like 10 consecutive days. All the water bodies near my area were frozen over. It was awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 It would be quite windy though ahead of the front during the game, wouldn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Pretty good match. I kept seeing the CFS weeklies going in that direction and it made sense that we could *potentially* end up in that type of regime so nice to see it showing inside of 15 days now. I think the -EPO is going to be legit and not a fantasy. How everything else breaks is hard to say. Assuming we do enter a +PNA/-EPO/+NAO regime we should all know what to expect as we have a lot of practice. 2014&15 had a bunch of luck on top of a decent pattern. 93-94 has almost no luck unless you like ice. Cold at times is a lock with a hemispheric pattern like that. Ptype is at the mercy of luck/timing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Steve25 said: Wish I had the memory to remember what January/February of 2014 and 2015 were like. I gotta start writing things down so I have something to look back to when I forget! Last really cold stretch I remember I think was the very beginning of January 2018? I remember it being sub-freezing for like 10 consecutive days. All the water bodies near my area were frozen over. It was awesome! January/February 2014 was very cold and a parade of storms. It was basically tracking for two straight months. We've had much more snow and much bigger storms, but I don't remember a period that long that was that busy and wintry. February 2015 was basically the same, but to a lesser extent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: January/February 2014 was very cold and a parade of storms. It was basically tracking for two straight months. We've had much more snow and much bigger storms, but I don't remember a period that long that was that busy and wintry. February 2015 was basically the same, but to a lesser extent. Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It would be quite windy though ahead of the front during the game, wouldn't it? Yeah i was thinking that...looks like maybe gusts in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results. Yeah, so lucky. 2014 was an absolute blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results. Iad ended up with 19.4" in 93-94 I'd take that from late January on in a heartbeat plus some ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: January/February 2014 was very cold and a parade of storms. It was basically tracking for two straight months. We've had much more snow and much bigger storms, but I don't remember a period that long that was that busy and wintry. February 2015 was basically the same, but to a lesser extent. Right. Jan-Feb 2014 was basically wall to wall deep winter with multiple events (the biggest being about a foot of snow in mid-Feb). Feb 2015 it took a week or two for us to get in the game (there was an early storm or two that missed us to the north and people were panicking) but our time came around mid-Feb and then we had a few nice events, the biggest being around 2/20 when a low ran to our west but the CAD held on and we got about 8” before flipping to sleet/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Iad ended up with 19.4" in 93-94 I'd take that from late January on 8n a heartbeat plus some ice Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I may stand in the minority, but I very much enjoy the cold as much as the snow, so if these are signals we're headed for much colder stretches, I'm here for it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 EPS snowfall mean is about 2.3 for DC. Not impressive on its own but it comes almost entirely between 1/18 and 1/23 (end of run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 93-94 was so close to having big totals. It's one thing to have so many mixed events with marginal cold or weak antecedent air masses but to have them in frigid conditions because the depth of the cold was so shallow has got to be a 1 in 200 year type winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago. You are correct. I lived in southern Carroll county and it was a sleet fest storm after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: 93-94 was so close to having big totals. It's one thing to have so many mixed events with marginal cold or weak antecedent air masses but to have them in frigid conditions because the depth of the cold was so shallow has got to be a 1 in 200 year type winter. Starting around d9 on both the GEFS and EPS there are a number of mixed precip solutions and it makes sense given the mean h5 look. I know everyone is dying for a clean coastal with perfect conditions (who wouldn't) but that won't come easy from what I'm seeing. We have at least 8 days of shutout to discuss. So far so good imo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago. I was living in Annandale at the time so my memory was more ice than snow. I'd guess out here or up by PSU was better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Wish I had the memory to remember what January/February of 2014 and 2015 were like. I gotta start writing things down so I have something to look back to when I forget! Last really cold stretch I remember I think was the very beginning of January 2018? I remember it being sub-freezing for like 10 consecutive days. All the water bodies near my area were frozen over. It was awesome! If you go find the seasonal totals thread from this forum for these years and find my last post you will be able to see how Baltimore (not downtown) made out. They were good years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago. In 93-94 I was at school in Ithaca, NY, and it was cold as hell in Jan and Feb. The coldest temp I ever experienced was -17F with a windchill around -60. The snot would literally freeze in your nostrils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I was living in Annandale at the time so my memory was more ice than snow. I'd guess out here or up by PSU was better There was a lot of ice even up here although I lived in reisterstown then. I think I was around 30. Probably broke 40 up here. The snow line ran more north/south with a lot of systems that year if memory serves. Being west helped some but not as much as usual unless you were more northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I also believe we had our coldest low high temp that year some time in Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 In February of ‘94 I was at Penn State Altoona. The entire state of Pennsylvania was under a state of emergency and Penn State closed (that never used to happen). I will never forget I went to get gas and the pumps didn’t work. It was -20. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 @Steve25For Balt City neighborhoods in 2013/14 - I was in Hamilton neighborhood that winter and had 46" - poster NW Balt (Pikesville area) had 57. Ravensrule (near poster NW Balt reported 64"). In 2014/15 I moved to where I currently am in North Baltimore and had 30 inches, poster NW Balt had 33. I got those from the season snow totals threads for those years on this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago. lol what happened to -QBO and blocking. Euro shows -EPO but severe NAO and AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago. i enjoyed 93-94 although Topper shutt screwed me. He swore on the 11:00pm news that the atomosphere was cold enough for snow and as soon as he said...i started hearing sleeet...and we got 5 inchces of sleet while Newark got 20 inches of snow:( 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting around d9 on both the GEFS and EPS there are a number of mixed precip solutions and it makes sense given the mean h5 look. I know everyone is dying for a clean coastal with perfect conditions (who wouldn't) but that won't come easy from what I'm seeing. We have at least 8 days of shutout to discuss. So far so good imo No, going to be some mixey storms ahead most likely as the trough carves it’s way eastward successively after each cutter. Best chance for an all snow solution before the last week of January is probably a weak overrunning storm or a follow up wave to a cutter with a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: i enjoyed 93-94 although Topper shutt screwed me. He swore on the 11:00pm news that the atomosphere was cold enough for snow and as soon as he said...i started hearing sleeet...and we got 5 inchces of sleet while Newark got 20 inches of snow:( I remember that one as well! Like a beach scene with 5 inches of sleet. Was so lame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, anotherman said: In February of ‘94 I was at Penn State Altoona. The entire state of Pennsylvania was under a state of emergency and Penn State closed (that never used to happen). I will never forget I went to get gas and the pumps didn’t work. It was -20. I remember there was a massive, pitched snowball battle on main campus. I also remember all the cars being completely buried. It was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Most memorable from 94 was the day it was 11 at 11am and 1 at 5pm, overnight low record tying (for me) -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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