Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly. Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If it's there at D5 or less than we're talking. Beyond that we've been burned too many times. So basically you want us to just stop using a long range threat to discuss long range....??. While most know better than to trust much beyond 240, we are smart enough to see the signs of better things coming and are glad to share/discuss long range stuff in a long range thread. you’re always welcome in banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If it's there at D5 or less than we're talking. Beyond that we've been burned too many times. We're at least 5-7 days away from any shot at a d5 event so you may want to take a break for a while. The only things that will be discussed here are outside of your range. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again! Yup. Uptick in activity and players realigning is all most rational weenies are looking at right now. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 GEPS looks like the GEFS but quicker. Half decent by d10 but this is nice to see. Just like the GEFS but quicker/better. -EPO/-NAO/+PNA and with the trough near Hawaii the STJ may be a player down the line. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 GEPS has the same idea at 12z...a nice improvement from an already decent 00z run. Hinting at a ridge bridge... ETA...slow typer...Bob beat me to the punch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: rational weenies I do believe that is an oxymoron!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 today was the first time ive heard Judah cohen refer to MJO. He dosent talk about the pacific alot either. I wonder if that plays into some of his forecasting issues:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 In all seriousness EJ, if you're of the mindset that it's not worth discussing until it's 5 days out, you really should take Bob's advice and take a break until next week at least. I've done it, and it does help clear my head and then when I come back, there's fun stuff to discuss in a much closer range. We know there won't be anything wintry in the next 5 days, so maybe this is the perfect time. Also to the rest of you, thanks for driving into the long range with these intelligent breakdowns. I don't have the knowledge of you guys, but I pick up bits and pieces of information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 the worst time on the forums is 2 weeks ago when we saw no hope in sight...now we have a target to get out of this awful pattern so im more into the posts now than i was a few weeks ago 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: the worst time on the forums is 2 weeks ago when we saw no hope in sight...now we have a target to get out of this awful pattern so im more into the posts now than i was a few weeks ago Yep. We’re not tracking a specific event per se, but we can at least track a shift to a workable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: today was the first time ive heard Judah cohen refer to MJO. He dosent talk about the pacific alot either. I wonder if that plays into some of his forecasting issues:) He needs to go out to lunch with Webb, it is not all HL, but wondering whether the implications from the improving Pac will make the high latitudes more receptive to influences from certain players. Isotherm as always mentions not just the attacks on the pv during a typical winter season, but whether the environment is favorable for certain things to proceed in a cooperative manner. Everything from AAM, Glamm, waves 1 and 2, etc. I like the trends today. The period near Jan 20 to 24 is very interesting but more so is what happens from there to effect Feb and March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mersky said: Doesn’t get much better than this. No doubt after the next 10 days the pattern is heading to a colder, stormier pattern. In the business of long range forecasting - the bolded portion is NEVER a safe thing. There should *always* be doubts when dealing with things beyond day 7...let alone day 10 or 15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I want to walk across the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I want to walk across the bridge. What about that SE ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 @Bob Chill gefs would just need another 48 hours. That epo ridge among with the developing -AO would beat down the SE ridge. I don’t care if that takes 17 days v 14 days so long as that’s real I’m happy. It’s still early January. I said a week ago when the disgusting look showed up that if it locked in more than 2 weeks or so that puts us into really ugly analog territory and we wanted to be able to see the “other side” by mid January. It’s only the 8th and the other side might be showing. That’s totally fine by me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Another promising EPS run coming out. Speeds up building the -EPO ridge and is decidedly colder in the east d9+ than the 0z run. Looks like a messy gradient pattern begins around d9 that continues to improve after. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: What about that SE ridge? No southern sliders. Said a few times already these looks have an icy/mix feel to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill gefs would just need another 48 hours. That epo ridge among with the developing -AO would beat down the SE ridge. I don’t care if that takes 17 days v 14 days so long as that’s real I’m happy. It’s still early January. I said a week ago when the disgusting look showed up that if it locked in more than 2 weeks or so that puts us into really ugly analog territory and we wanted to be able to see the “other side” by mid January. It’s only the 8th and the other side might be showing. That’s totally fine by me. Take a look at the run over run h5 delta on the EPS. Marked improvement building the EPO ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: What about that SE ridge? It won’t last long with that look up top, especially as we head later in winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, Mersky said: Doesn’t get much better than this. No doubt after the next 10 days the pattern is heading to a colder, stormier pattern. lol no doubt. will be checking back in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 @psuhoffman EPS is going Feb 2014/15 down the line. lol. I may score a lucky guess with that if it happens. Looks pretty cold d10+. Not just here but the eastern 2/3rds of the conus. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman EPS is going Feb 2014/15 down the line. lol. I may score a lucky guess with that if it happens. Looks pretty cold d10+. Not just here but the eastern 2/3rds of the conus. Fits the Euro seasonal model forecast released on 1/1/2020, encouraging so far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 EPS says welcome back Jan/Feb 2014 and Feb 2015. EPO starts building d6 and much faster with that feature compared to any recent run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 EPS at end of run. Edit: Ninja’d by Bob I should let him handle this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 @Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS says welcome back Jan/Feb 2014 and Feb 2015. EPO starts building d6 and much faster with that feature compared to any recent run. This look would imply there could be some real arctic shots and even if a storm cuts it would be hard to scour and could be quite wintry before a flip to rain. Often with another cold blast right behind any departing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Cant really tell with the 24 hr maps, but how does the Euro do in terms of Saturday night? I saw good trends from the other models holding off most precip until after midnight Saturday, curious if Euro agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Cant really tell with the 24 hr maps, but how does the Euro do in terms of Saturday night? I saw good trends from the other models holding off most precip until after midnight Saturday, curious if Euro agrees I was wondering same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro holds off rain until after the game mostly. Gfs probably brings it in during the 2nd half 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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