Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said: You're both wrong: Peak temps are mid-January. Wow, I thought the snow yesterday would ease everybody down...I guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 If the MJO makes it to 781 during late Jan early Feb then the long range MJO models would have been spot on. I was looking at them in late Nov and salivating at the thought of that happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12 hours ago, Mersky said: A cold Canada is a good thing. The PV is getting elongated which is clearly visible on the ensembles. The MJO is heading to the colder phases later this month into February when winter usually occurs around these parts. And all your worrying and you got snow today lol 12 hours ago, Mersky said: A few days ago this wasn’t shown to get out of phase 5 before going into the COD. Now it’s higher amplitude is getting it into 6 with members now showing it going into 7 then 8. It will keep correcting our in time. This is the euro mjo from a week ago It simply wasn’t going out far enough to get to where it is now. 4 days ago it was getting it into 6, not quite as far as yesterday but the difference was marginal and not close to the definitive trend towards 8 you are making it. You are taking some pretty big liberties to say “guidance is trending towards cold phases”. The last wave did not make it into phases 8/1. Before that we had a standing wave in 2/3. The euro does often tend to kill waves early. That is a bias I’ve noticed. The gfs looked even worse though. Somehow you don’t even post or mention that! There is also disagreement among experts. Some think this will progress into the pac and others are nervous about a stall in the MC. I am open to all options because the final outcome falls outside our high probability forecast range. I am happy for you that you feel as confident as you do in how everything will play out I don’t ever have that level of confidence in the mjo or anything else at 2+ weeks lead time. You also keep misinterpreting analysis as forecast. When I say “if we don’t get an epo ridge or the NAM state to change we’re screwed” that isn’t “he said we’re screwed”. I said we need to look for either the epo or NAM state to flip because we need one of those 2 factors to change. Yes if neither does then we ARE screwed. But you jump past the “if” and “or” and derive a definitive forecast instead of seeing the analysis of permutations. For the last 10 days the cpc pattern analogs have been dominated by some awful years. 1952, 1989, 2002, 2008 for example have all littered the top pattern comps day after day. You can think that’s no big deal if you want. And there are examples of comps that flipped better also and I presented those as well but they were the minority. But I also pointed out the bad years were mostly Nina’s and this is not. I gave both the good and bad options, and the bad ones outnumbered the good. That’s not my fault it’s just reality. Maybe we beat the odds this year. But the numbers are what they are. I presented what the current projected look lead to in past examples. It wasn’t good most of the time. If you have an issue with that sorry. My style is to present what could to right AND what could go wrong. I look at the fail scenarios and what to look out for. But I’m not a pessimist. I’ve often been bullish on snow chances when it’s warrented. I was bullish on this winter a month ago. I’ve been bullish on a big storm look from long range before. But only when there are legitimate good signs. I don’t blow smoke. If you only want to hear what could go right there are plenty of people that will make you feel warm and fuzzy no matter what the pattern is like JB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: As far as sensible weather, getting major ice/mix storm vibes from the period after the 17th. Lots of cold arctic air to the north but with SE ridge tendencies. This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry. Maybe we'll make a run at @Eskimo Joe's doomsday ice storm scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Maybe we'll make a run at @Eskimo Joe's doomsday ice storm scenario. You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out. Well yeah. I'm not dumb Wasn't it you that said they simulated a scenario where the water would stop running etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Neat trivia from Webb. Wonder how that stacks up for us. I think this MJO forecast makes much more sense than those that kill it off in Phase 6. Quick website question: How do you guys embed a tweet like that so that it shows up like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Quick website question: How do you guys embed a tweet like that so that it shows up like this? Just paste the link to the tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry. Tell me you see a “Chill Storm” scenario out there. Those are my favorite, snow dump and a layer of ice to seal it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just paste the link to the tweet I try that and it only shows the link text and not the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland We get frozen from a low running into Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I try that and it only shows the link text and not the image Sometimes it pastes as “rich text”. You don’t want that. 9 minutes ago, jaydreb said: We get frozen from a low running into Minnesota. Arctic air is a crazy thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sometimes it pastes as “rich text”. You don’t want that. Figured it out! (I forgot to wait for it to embed automatically before posting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Arctic air is a crazy thing 12z gfs spit out exactly what we were just talking about. lol. As long as we get a foot of it I'm good with ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z gfs spit out exactly what we were just talking about. lol. As long as we get a foot of it I'm good with ice. 12" - 16" of pancake batter followed by 2" to 3" of ZR then a 3 day deep freeze. The icing on the cake would be the event popping up under 12-24 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12" - 16" of pancake batter followed by 2" to 3" of ZR then a 3 day deep freeze. The icing on the cake would be the event popping up under 12-24 hours. All in. GEFS is hinting at a transition towards a legit storm look for these parts. This panel is only a couple small adjustments away to put the MA in a good spot for a decent storm. No idea if it's right but between all ens guidance I'm not worried about being stuck in a shutout pattern for too long here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12" - 16" of pancake batter followed by 2" to 3" of ZR then a 3 day deep freeze. The icing on the cake would be the event popping up under 12-24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 GEFS is active AF from the 17th until the end of the run. I bet most of the precip is rain, but seeing pressing arctic air from the north with a firehouse of moisture coming in from the southern plains probably will make EJ tingly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS is active AF from the 17th until the end of the run. I bet most of the precip is rain, but seeing pressing arctic air from the north with a firehouse of moisture coming in from the southern plains probably will make EJ tingly. It's pretty meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: GEFS is active AF from the 17th until the end of the run. I bet most of the precip is rain, but seeing pressing arctic air from the north with a firehouse of moisture coming in from the southern plains probably will make EJ tingly. I looped the members. BUSY is a good word. Quite a few mixed/ice events during the period but some legit coastal shellackings in the mix. Best GEFS I've seen d10-15 all winter. Similar to what the EPS is doing. Seeing the legit coastals on the run was nice because they have been few and far between on the GEFS for basically the entire winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It's pretty meh. Is it? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is it? Yes. Less than 25% of the events are acceptable and the all but one of the minority that's good is only for the elite forum members in jackpotville. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is it? I’ll take that. Next week could be a lot of fun between storm tracking and preparing for the AFC championship game. I hope Eps throws us a bone toward what the GEFS was suggesting for the high latitudes. Either way, I’m getting more encouraged about where we’re headed for the last week of January and hopefully beyond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. Less than 25% of the events are acceptable and the minority that's good is only for the elite forum members in jackpotville. Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. Less than 25% of the events are acceptable and the all but one of the minority that's good is only for the elite forum members in jackpotville. Back to the 30” or meh mindset are we?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago. Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I’d like to place an order for 16 and 10. Please add a side of 5 for me. This is to go. Thanks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly. If it's there at D5 or less than we're talking. Beyond that we've been burned too many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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