January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[frd]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But I would feel better if we got some indication forcing would change in the pac. 

Me as well. If you knew that answer you could make a lot of money in the energy markets.  I for one believe we will see changes,  but they will be gradual and hopefully these "positive" changes appear closer and closer to real time as we near February. It has been another challenging Pacific to forecast,  two years in a row. I realize there are other factors besides the Pac,  way too many to name, you know them all. Just when you think you have a handle on one , an unforeseen pattern driver or player rears its ugly head. This year the IOD has been a pain just to name one.  

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, Mersky said:

A cold Canada is a good thing. The PV is getting elongated which is clearly visible on the ensembles. The MJO is heading to the colder phases later this month into February when winter usually occurs around these parts. And all your worrying and you got snow today lol 

A cold Canada may or may not have any impact here.  I mean I like seeing it just because I like the inherent idea of cold anywhere, but there have been winters where the cold stayed completely bottled up in there.  I haven't seen any evidence of the MJO going into the cold phases.  Both the GEFS and EPS seem to have it headed to the COD, which is certainly better than currently, but not particularly good.

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

A cold Canada may or may not have any impact here.  I mean I like seeing it just because I like the inherent idea of cold anywhere, but there have been winters where the cold stayed completely bottled up in there.  I haven't seen any evidence of the MJO going into the cold phases.  Both the GEFS and EPS seem to have it headed to the COD, which is certainly better than currently, but not particularly good.

What about the opposite? Like 2010 when they couldn't buy a flake up there while we got buried? Lol (was that a rare case where a warm Canada wasn't bad? Haha)

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Mersky said:

A few days ago this wasn’t shown to get out of phase 5 before going into the COD. Now it’s higher amplitude is getting it into 6 with members now showing it going into 7 then 8. It will keep correcting our in time. 

I'm reading your posts and can see some of your logic/reasoning, but I'll say that you are 1 stall away in phase 6 from potentially eating a crap ton of crow....especially since the AO/NAO are not showing overwhelming signals to help your case.  Mind you, I think that as they trend better coupled w/ prime climo and ridging showing up in Scandanavia it should help, and make your suggestions may have merit.

While I/we dont know much about you....speaking in absolutes as you tend to do doesn't often bode well.....even for the best of the best.  Just a suggestion.

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What about the opposite? Like 2010 when they couldn't buy a flake up there while we got buried? Lol (was that a rare case where a warm Canada wasn't bad? Haha)

Was it 2010?  I remember a year around then when the NAO/AO was so persistently in our favor that it kept funneling warm air up in eastern Canada while I had record cold.  Not sure what was happening in NW Canada at that time.

I think that was like the grand finale of good AO/NAO blocking it has been almost universally crappy since then (with a few exceptions).

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Was it 2010?  I remember a year around then when the NAO/AO was so persistently in our favor that it kept funneling warm air up in eastern Canada while I had record cold.  Not sure what was happening in NW Canada at that time.

I think that was like the grand finale of good AO/NAO blocking it has been almost universally crappy since then (with a few exceptions).

Yep, that was the epic 2009-10 winter! And I remember the Canada warmth because of the difficulties it caused for the winter Olympics, lol And I hope that wasn't a "grand finale" of good blocking...hopefully it was just a decadal cycle that some theorize the NAO to go in!

[StantonParkHoya]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's been that way since thanksgiving. Windows opening and closing. Today wasn't even much of a window but worked out anyways. Would be nice if our next event is all snow with cold surface to start

We’ve realistically only got about 45 days for that to have a chance. Once March gets here, things get exponentially tougher.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 hours ago, Mersky said:

No issues with this look, especially during peak minimum  climo temps in late January. 

Peak climo temps are early January, not late

[Inverted_Trough]

You're both wrong:  Peak temps are mid-January.

[Maestrobjwa]

I'd argue that peak snow climo, which I give more credence to, is mid-January through President's Day 

[WEATHER53]

I think for DC the very coldest run is 1/6-1/15 

[yoda]

00z GFS sure is stormy and has chances in the D11-16 time period

[showmethesnow]

I can live with this look in the extended on the EPS. Very workable pattern and is a tremendous upgrade to what we expecting to see just a week ago. The GEFS though is still somewhat rough as it continues to be heavy handed with the troughing into the SW and off the coast. But even that is workable towards the end of the extended though it would probably more so favor 40 north at this time.

 

 

[PDIII]

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I can live with this look in the extended on the EPS. Very workable pattern and is a tremendous upgrade to what we expecting to see just a week ago. The GEFS though is still somewhat rough as it continues to be heavy handed with the troughing into the SW and off the coast. But even that is workable towards the end of the extended though it would probably more so favor 40 north at this time.

 

 

Both operational models show the the negative PNA index lightening up on its grip.  Thats just in time for our prime time climo.  Glad to see it.  

[PDIII]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd argue that peak snow climo, which I give more credence to, is mid-January through President's Day 

Yeah definitely.. not sure about how reliable this is.. but check out this link: 

 

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Maryland/Places/baltimore-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php

 

It says that average snowfall is greater in February than January..and we know that it gets spotty towards the end of February.  So I think it is safe to that we are heading in to our peak climo in the next couple of weeks

 

[PDIII]

14 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Judah cancelling winter might mean winter is about to start LOL.

Remember tha psu definitively canceled winter earlier this year.. in one of our greatest posts in AmericanWX history.. he all but said.. "no snow for you"..  I figured that was my cue to start paying attention 

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...that Eps h5 plot looks pretty decent . For mid / late January looks very workable . I looked at qpf mean for that period and it's far from dry . We still have lots of January to go . That time stamp ends on the 23rd. Another week to go even after. I'm optimistic about our chances. 

Looks like next Thursday could be the transition start timeframe 

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

[Amorphous Iodine]

43 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Yeah definitely.. not sure about how reliable this is.. but check out this link: 

 

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Maryland/Places/baltimore-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php

 

It says that average snowfall is greater in February than January..and we know that it gets spotty towards the end of February.  So I think it is safe to that we are heading in to our peak climo in the next couple of weeks

 

If climo valley temps (Jan.)precede peak climo snow (Feb.)....then are climo temps of any predictive value?  

[Rhino16]

The euro ensembles have been hinting at MLK weekend for awhile now, but that’s normal for fantasy land at this time of year. Normally it would’ve dropped it a few times or so, but it’s been there most of the time.

[Chris78]

Love the look of the gfs day 10 - 15. All the caveats apply for long range OP but cold air around and an active southern branch. Looks like the last 10 or 12 days of January could be fun.

[WxUSAF]

Neat trivia from Webb. Wonder how that stacks up for us. I think this MJO forecast makes much more sense than those that kill it off in Phase 6.

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...that Eps h5 plot looks pretty decent . For mid / late January looks very workable . I looked at qpf mean for that period and it's far from dry . We still have lots of January to go . That time stamp ends on the 23rd. Another week to go even after. I'm optimistic about our chances. 

Looks like next Thursday could be the transition start timeframe 

Yeah after the last few days, that seems to be the day we start back into a more wintery regime.  Still noteabe differences between GFS Ens so takeaway is somethings  likely changing, EPS seems a bit quicker, and looks workable as well once beyond next week.  Hope so. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

Thats a great setup if it happens.  Just nice to see a transition away from this upcoming hot mess and a medley of workable looks on Ens guidance moving beyond D7

[Ji]

Neat trivia from Webb. Wonder how that stacks up for us. I think this MJO forecast makes much more sense than those that kill it off in Phase 6.
 

Well if the Carolinas can score...then I'll take that chance for us

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Neat trivia from Webb. Wonder how that stacks up for us. I think this MJO forecast makes much more sense than those that kill it off in Phase 6.
 

Well if the Carolinas can score...then I'll take that chance for us

Same. If the long range longwave pattern is correct, doesn’t look like suppression is a risk.

[Ji]

Same. If the long range longwave pattern is correct, doesn’t look like suppression is a risk.

The mjo progression might be the game changer we are looking for to take us from window hunting to seeing a sustained winter pattern

[frd]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

 

Nice to see the EPS get some support from the GEFS.  As @WxUSAF noted Webb really likes this wave to continue to progress. Some folks I follow whom specialize in tropical forcing and the West Pac  weather patterns think this wave has a chance to get to phase 8.  

 

 

[Ji]

 
Nice to see the EPS get some support from the GEFS.  As [mention=51]WxUSAF[/mention] noted Webb really likes this wave to continue to progress. Some folks I follow whom specialize in tropical forcing and the West Pac  weather patterns think this wave has a chance to get to phase 8.  
 
 

Saw maps recently where phase 7 is a dumpster fire in December but different story mid to late January

[WxUSAF]

I think the MJO gets to phase 8. I think question is whether it gets to phase 1. Long range MJO plots like Roundy’s show it getting into 8 with subsidence over the maritime continent. 

As far as sensible weather, getting major ice/mix storm vibes from the period after the 17th. Lots of cold arctic air to the north but with SE ridge tendencies.

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As far as sensible weather, getting major ice/mix storm vibes from the period after the 17th. Lots of cold arctic air to the north but with SE ridge tendencies.

Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.