Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We will need “way out of this” title. Heard that a lot this year. Also mirage and light at the end of the tunnel. Better than "epic unicorns". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 @frd Ive been watch that evolution the past few days on the GEFS. If anything, the PV will be no longer stationary....makes a pretty drastic move and stretches somewhat past D10. Not moving too far away from the pole yet on those looks but I am just happy to see something...anything not remain stagnant in the LR. Euro looks to be in agreement thru D10 at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 24 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Euro looks to be in agreement thru D10 at least. To me having agreement on movement is a win. If there is going to be a future change in the NAM state for Feb it will have to start from somewhere. This follows along the lines of the Euro seasonal I believe issued on 1/1/20 - it showed below average 2 meter temps across a large portion of the country. The temp signature seems to align itself with a - EPO delivery. During the next couple weeks Western Canada will be very cold and this could set the stage for ample cold to dig South first across the Western US and then gradually move East. The estimated times periods for the -EPO and the -NAO that some spoke of being Jan for the -EPO delivery and Feb for the -NAO may potentially may simply have been pusehd back in time.I could almost speculate a deep -EPO in Feb and then the first real deep -NAO /Davis Straits NAO block of the new calendar year being in late Feb to early March. Fitting again some speculation on a colder and possibly snowier March this year. This would coincide with the tendency of later season blocking episodes ( as in some prior years this past decade ) and allows the QBO to further descend and have an impact on the sensible weather pattern here in the East, not to mention possible reshuffling in the West Pac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Where? It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Correct The point was to try some reverse psychology on the snow gods....if you can't find it, maybe they can't either. Although I suppose I could change it to "Cleveland Park PUMMELED"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Where? It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it lol, took me a minute to realize it was a storm thread and not a discussion about how bad the pattern is. as far as patterns are concerned, call me one of those who didn't see this coming after what was a pretty chilly start to the season. this is without a doubt as weak of a winter as last year so far (actually weaker because the mid january storm was great). on a side note, i enjoy the outdoors, so if it doesn't snow i'm ok with some hiking/biking weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 When I watched this WB EPS 500 mb anomalies in motion, looks like by the 20th the SE ridge is finally getting beaten down, and the western trough with an Arctic connection shifting east as a ridge builds in Alaska. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: @frd Ive been watch that evolution the past few days on the GEFS. If anything, the PV will be no longer stationary....makes a pretty drastic move and stretches somewhat past D10. Not moving too far away from the pole yet on those looks but I am just happy to see something...anything not remain stagnant in the LR. Euro looks to be in agreement thru D10 at least. The wheels appear to be in motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: When I watched this WB EPS 500 mb anomalies in motion, looks like by the 20th the SE ridge is finally getting beaten down, and the western trough with an Arctic connection shifting east as a ridge builds in Alaska. That's not a bad look and extrapolated even better. I like the more significant SD colors colors to Scandinavia and not the Pac leading the way. The trof moving east like a turtle isnt bad either. Let's get this under 180 hours. ETA: forget about he above extrapolation because one could argue the PV is setting up near Alaska which is yet another way to fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 EPS improved with the potential around the 17th. Meteos aren't out yet so I can't compare fine details run over run but overall it moved in the right direction. It's a tight window but looking half decent from afar. Gefs is odd man out with shuffling the pac ridge/trough. Eps and geps are rolling forward to a decent but not amazing look. Pleased overall as it appears the -pna death grip is easing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I posted this yesterday but feel even better about where the pattern is going. Imho- both the geps and eps are moving towards this look late Jan. Not a big dog but certainly faaaar better than where we are now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: When I watched this WB EPS 500 mb anomalies in motion, looks like by the 20th the SE ridge is finally getting beaten down, and the western trough with an Arctic connection shifting east as a ridge builds in Alaska. EPS has been ever so slowly trending towards a neutral, and possibly a +PNA over recent runs. Good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Graphically: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I posted this yesterday but feel even better about where the pattern is going. Imho- both the geps and eps are moving towards this look late Jan. Not a big dog but certainly faaaar better than where we are now. Every 2 days it seems we go in mood swings. Today is a happy ending day on the ens. Cool. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Every 2 days it seems we go in mood swings. Today is a happy ending day on the ens. Cool. Agree on the rollercoaster. Lost some time on any flip but now (imho only) we're seeing some agreement on how we get out and gaining a little time in the process. Gefs is now odd man out but until all 3 global ens agree on progression and timing I'll be nervous. Give me 2 runs of the gefs showing the GoA ridge building and I'm all in. It's still not a great look but magnitudes better than the next 10 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I like how on the HH GFS op the monster Pac ridge bubble spawns an ULL out of nowhere lol: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Congrats Texas Gulf Coast and old Mexico: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I like how the snow/rain hole remains over northern Virginia during the entire January 16th storm. Unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: I like how the snow/rain hole remains over northern Virginia during the entire January 16th storm. Unbelievable! Not worried. It will change in 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 It's atypical but this is a big storm setup for the eastern US in general. One of the biggest NA troughs I've seen. Obviously it's an op out of range but this is an impressive panel 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Can't seem to get the scan ridge to move ploeward on most op and ens runs.... But, the gfs gets the pattern out of the crapper through retrogression of the PAC ridge. Only reason it is notable imo is the eps showed this as well at 12z. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's atypical but this is a big storm setup for the eastern US in general. One of the biggest NA troughs I've seen. Obviously it's an op out of range but this is an impressive panel How does that work to help the E Conus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: How does that work to help the E Conus? Looks like a full lat trof neg tilt to it. Big storm signal for the East....somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like a full lat trof neg tilt to it. Big storm signal for the East....somewhere. Well he mentioned the North Atlantic trough specifically, that was what I thought he was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well he mentioned the North Atlantic trough specifically, that was what I thought he was talking about. North American trof I think unless he like the look of a massive negative SD near the Eastern NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well he mentioned the North Atlantic trough specifically, that was what I thought he was talking about. NA is our acronym for North America. Full latitude trough. Get that neg tilt and close off on the way north and it's fireworks for someone. It was just an interesting panel. Total fantasyland stuff though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well he mentioned the North Atlantic trough specifically, that was what I thought he was talking about. He means North American trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: NA is our acronym for North America. Full latitude trough. Get that neg tilt and close off on the way north and it's fireworks for someone. It was just an interesting panel. Total fantasyland stuff though OP at range but the Pac death puke blob from Hades is displaced and waning by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 GEFS look nothing like the op. Better look early in the EPO region maybe into the AO then goes right back to PAC ridge vomit west coast trof se ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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