WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 When it’s rough it’s always shown as better looking 10+ days until 10+ gets here and then it’s another 10+. Been that way for 15+ years on weather boards so kinda odd that we even hold hope or pay attention anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree, and 12z eps is actually a sig improvement d10+ in the Atl. Better than the gefs now... Overall the Pac is stable and overwhelming through d15. We need that ridge/trough alignment to change here at some point. Any meaningful change there is getting pushed out in time every day. we could be helped if that ridge moved to the left or the right lol but it dosent want to move anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: When it’s rough it’s always is shown as better looking 10+ days until 10+ gets here and then it’s another 10+. Been that way for 15+ years on weather boards so kinda odd that we even hold hope or pay attention anymore. well at least you agree now that models rule and are fantastic for the most part. Thats basically what you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 the eps at d15 is extremly ugly...Butt positve AO and NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: we could be helped if that ridge moved to the left or the right lol but it dosent want to move anywhere I see some slight improvement in the PAC on the 12z EPS at the end. Pac ridge is weaker, slightly further east, and the trough seems to be on the move east. Or maybe I am hallucinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea.. if that holds we should be in the game for light to moderate possible threats anyway . It is January after all. Dont need much departure to score . Eps is picking up on a discrete cold shot with a longshot threat centered around the 17th. Like Cape mentioned earlier, the gefs has a similar idea. As long as there's something to track it keeps me sane in an otherwise insanely bad pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree, and 12z eps is actually a sig improvement d10+ in the Atl. Better than the gefs now... Overall the Pac is stable and overwhelming through d15. We need that ridge/trough alignment to change here at some point. Any meaningful change there is getting pushed out in time every day. 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the eps at d15 is extremly ugly...Butt positve AO and NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the eps at d15 is extremly ugly...Butt positve AO and NAO Look at the run over run change in the Npac. It might be ugly but it's also a sig improvement from 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Look at the run over run change in the Npac. It might be ugly but it's also a sig improvement from 0z... So I am not hallucinating. lol. I have a feeling the EPS tellies are going to have the PNA rising towards or above -2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I added it above but that look around day 10-12 implies backdoor fronts or transient 50/50s . So I'm thinking CAD situations. EPS is start to at least move towards an improved Pac and reshuffle. For giggles take a look at d15 control h5. Scand ridge into Greeland... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Look at the run over run change in the Npac. It might be ugly but it's also a sig improvement from 0z...Yes but 00z had taken 3 steps back from 2 days ago so we are back at square one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Yes but 00z had taken 3 steps back from 2 days ago so we are back at square one I don't disagree there but the changes start d10 and continue. A number of subtle hints being dropped that we won't be at war with the -pna for the entire next couple weeks. I'm not saying I like the setup d15 because I don't. However, the breakdown or relocation of the nPac ridge could be abrupt. My interpretation of the 12z eps is odds are increasing for a reshuffle in the nPac. Now we're seeing period of interest around the 17th to help pass time while fighting the -pna. My hunch is we're seeing the beginning of a longwave pattern shift showing up. Right now it's all washed and muddy because of time. If there is going to be a shift inside of 15 days the signal should grow from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 @Ji Look what the geps does in the npac. That's a big change from where we are next 10 days. I'm thinking a cluster of eps members are seeing the same thing and that's why the run over run change on the EPS was so big. For the first time in a while we're seeing ens guidance in the nPac to not agree out in time in the npac. That nasty Aleutian ridge may be on the move before we think... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 The EPS looks similar but the trend towards neutral is at a slightly lower rate. GEFS shows a slight increase then levels off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Agree, and 12z eps is actually a sig improvement d10+ in the Atl. Better than the gefs now... Overall the Pac is stable and overwhelming through d15. We need that ridge/trough alignment to change here at some point. Any meaningful change there is getting pushed out in time every day. Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Hard to see no progress over 2 full weeks... I'd have to look at some composites but this Jan seems awfully similar Jan 2002 going off memory It is. First of all there is some historical support for this week maybe working. There were a few modest snow events at the start of the awful pac ridge patterns in the analogs. And even though the pattern has sucked we are in flux. It was mostly an awful northern pac pattern that did us in the last 2 weeks. Early in the season that’s a killer. Later that becomes less a problem. But the central pac ridge is really just getting going now. After that though (and there are some good signs today and it’s not no hope that isn’t what I’m saying) I think people would be best to accept there is a chance that look locks in the rest of winter. History says (even if we add in the more hopeful but less comparable analogs I found) there is a greater than 50% chance it does. The top analogs showing up day after day are 1989, 2002, and 2008! Im not saying abandon hope. 2006 and 2007 sneak in there sometimes too and they both got somewhat better. If the NAO flips strongly negative all bets are off but we both know that’s rare when we enter mid winter with a raging positive AO/NAO combo. Not impossible but rare. But if we expect the worst it will only make it that much better if we get a snowy period later. But I fear some weenie souls might go crazy if they are checking in everyday expecting things to improve when there is a decent chance it won’t and this is the crap look we get straight through winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth. There have been some hints of improvement on the PAC side for the fist time in a while. Latest MJO forecasts suggest tropical convection may actually progress off of the MC, and there are subtle signs of improvement in the central/eastern PAC on the EPS and the GEPS, including an increase in the PNA beyond D10. Might be noise. We should know in a few days, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 @psuhoffman over the short/medium term we really couldn't draw up a worse hemispheric pattern. I'm avidly chasing less of a disaster. Today was a good day in modeland. String a few more in a row and it gets interesting again. It's been 3 weeks since the flip in mid Dec and all of our early fears from that flip are coming true. I just want out. I know we're not magically flipping to a big dog setup. I'm doubting a big dog setup happens at all but still 6-8 weeks to go before ruling it out. But for god sakes... give us a little cookie to chew on. Something.... anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is. First of all there is some historical support for this week maybe working. There were a few modest snow events at the start of the awful pac ridge patterns in the analogs. And even though the pattern has sucked we are in flux. It was mostly an awful northern pac pattern that did us in the last 2 weeks. Early in the season that’s a killer. Later that becomes less a problem. But the central pac ridge is really just getting going now. After that though (and there are some good signs today and it’s not no hope that isn’t what I’m saying) I think people would be best to accept there is a chance that look locks in the rest of winter. History says (even if we add in the more hopeful but less comparable analogs I found) there is a greater than 50% chance it does. The top analogs showing up day after day are 1989, 2002, and 2008! Im not saying abandon hope. 2006 and 2007 sneak in there sometimes too and they both got somewhat better. If the NAO flips strongly negative all bets are off but we both know that’s rare when we enter mid winter with a raging positive AO/NAO combo. Not impossible but rare. But if we expect the worst it will only make it that much better if we get a snowy period later. But I fear some weenie souls might go crazy if they are checking in everyday expecting things to improve when there is a decent chance it won’t and this is the crap look we get straight through winter. C'mon dude, it is clear you are on the payroll of 007. No worries. You aren't the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman over the short/medium term we really couldn't draw up a worse hemispheric pattern. I'm avidly chasing less of a disaster. Today was a good day in modeland. String a few more in a row and it gets interesting again. It's been 3 weeks since the flip in mid Dec and all of our early fears from that flip are coming true. I just want out. I know we're not magically flipping to a big dog setup. I'm doubting a big dog setup happens at all but still 6-8 weeks to go before ruling it out. But for god sakes... give us a little cookie to chew on. Something.... anything... Im with you 100%. I’m just not sure the look we are getting now isn’t going to just run the table. It doesn’t always. But I guess for my own sanity I’m coming to grips with the fact that every so often (1989, 2002, 2008, 2012)we get a year where a really strong central pac ridge just wrecks the whole winter, and maybe this is one. If things flip better I will be excited but that way if it doesn’t I’m not frustrated every week until April. Get the frustration out of the way now and then just accept whatever comes. But to each their own way of coping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: C'mon dude, it is clear you are on the payroll of 007. No worries. You aren't the only one. <shrug> Not much to say. It pays well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: <shrug> Not much to say. It pays well. I wouldn't know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Im with you 100%. I’m just not sure the look we are getting now isn’t going to just run the table. It doesn’t always. But I guess for my own sanity I’m coming to grips with the fact that every so often (1989, 2002, 2008, 2012)we get a year where a really strong central pac ridge just wrecks the whole winter, and maybe this is one. If things flip better I will be excited but that way if it doesn’t I’m not frustrated every week until April. Get the frustration out of the way now and then just accept whatever comes. But to each their own way of coping! I'm pretty much there at this point. I'm come to terms with it and I'm at peace with it. My hope is that another dud winter (although I know some will argue last winter wasn't a dud since we were around average snowfall but the way we got there sucked) makes us due (even though that's not really a thing), but I just want a big snowstorm. Sure, a blizzard would be great, but a 4-8/6-12/8-14 would be nice, and one that doesn't start melting the second it ends or turns to rain and washes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 @psuhoffman My best guess is we end up in this regime before the end of Jan. Geps is already there in 15 days. Eps/gefs are showing signs of moving this way. Latest weeklies look close enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman My best guess is we end up in this regime before the end of Jan. Geps is already there in 15 days. Eps/gefs are showing signs of moving this way. Latest weeklies look close enough. That looks kind of Feb 1993 2015ish. 1993 was GREAT just NW of this forum. My area northwest had 4 or 5 warning level events while DC was getting 1” changing to rain each time. 2015 worked out. That’s how that pattern goes. Gradient would set up somewhere and run waves. Get north of it and it’s a good look. End up south and it’s incredibly frustrating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: (1989, 2002, 2008, 2012) I thought that 2012 was a pig Alaska vortex, sort of like the crappy pattern we are just getting out of, as opposed to the one we are going into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That looks kind of Feb 1993 2015ish. 1993 was GREAT just NW of this forum. My area northwest had 4 or 5 warning level events while DC was getting 1” changing to rain each time. 2015 worked out. That’s how that pattern goes. Gradient would set up somewhere and run waves. Get north of it and it’s a good look. End up south and it’s incredibly frustrating. I’ll take a Feb/March 93 and won’t complain one time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, Mersky said: I Watched JB’s video today and he mentioned February and March 93 in it. Showed what January was like and the flip that occurred. It was actually a very good video in regards to what is happening in Australia, the MJO and where we go from here. The flip in 93 was really incredible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That looks kind of Feb 1993 2015ish. 1993 was GREAT just NW of this forum. My area northwest had 4 or 5 warning level events while DC was getting 1” changing to rain each time. 2015 worked out. That’s how that pattern goes. Gradient would set up somewhere and run waves. Get north of it and it’s a good look. End up south and it’s incredibly frustrating. I'd be thrilled with an active pattern and cold around. Ice/sleet/snow... don't care. Anything but rain and 50. 18z gfs shows the same Atlantic help as the ens around the 17th. Slowly seeing some consistency on our next real window. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 GFS has a bizarre snowstorm at 318hrs for l PA and NJ. At least the old GFS fantasy range snowstorms looked somewhat physically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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