showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is ugly lol. I just looked at the 0z and 6z GEFS, and IMO there were incremental steps back compared to 18z run. This is going to require some serious patience. I don't think there are any quick fixes to get from where we are currently to a favorable pattern for snow. My mindset is expect nothing but mild/rain, with transient cool shots after cutters, through Jan 20th. Keep watching the means to see if noticeable improvement gets pushed back, or maybe occurs sooner. I doubt the latter at this time though. And lots of beer. Right now there is pretty good potential for those north of the boundary to do very well with the projected look (right now we are probably talking central/northern PA and northward). The question is, can we see that shifted southward enough for our needs. With how hostile the PAC is about the only quick fix I see possible to doing this is to see the pv displaced S/SEward by quite a bit as I posted above. Do I expect to see that? No, not really. But it doesn't mean I won't be rooting for that Scan ridging to start popping on future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is ugly lol. I just looked at the 0z and 6z GEFS, and IMO there were incremental steps back compared to 18z run wrt pattern improvement in the LR.. This is going to require some serious patience. I don't think there are any quick fixes to get from where we are currently to a favorable pattern for snow. My mindset is expect nothing but mild/rain, with transient cool shots after cutters, through Jan 20th. Keep watching the means to see if noticeable improvement gets pushed back, or maybe occurs sooner. I doubt the latter at this time though. Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And lots of beer. Right now there is pretty good potential for those north of the boundary to do very well with the projected look (right now we are probably talking central/northern PA and northward). The question is, can we see that shifted southward enough for our needs. With how hostile the PAC is about the only quick fix I see possible to doing this is to see the pv displaced S/SEward by quite a bit as I posted above. Do I expect to see that? No, not really. But it doesn't mean I won't be rooting for that Scan ridging to start popping on future runs. It is not a meteorological impossiblilty, as the 6z GEFS has demonstrated. As you discussed earlier, something well timed on a trailing front with a previous cutter acting as a temporary 50-50 could get it done in a bad pattern, with a ton of luck. The EPS snowfall map over the next 15 days says it all wrt to the general location of the boundary, and is what you would expect. Places like NY state and northern half of NE can do pretty well in an overall crap pattern. We envy their climo, but we live with ours lol. At our latitude(esp mine), we watch and wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround. Figures we get would get a locked in, stable pattern that is the exact opposite of what we want, heading into prime climo for cold/snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I really dont see anything that will get us out of this mess in January. The central pac ridge Dosent move and the nao isnt strong enough to fight it. January is cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looking over the ens this AM looks like the pattern of 2 days of "a way out of this" looks and 2 days of "locked in" looks continue. Notable degrading of the way out looks overnight. SE Ridge now starting to flex and look like more a player than we may want. Someone mentioned as long as the greatest SD arent in the Pac and begin to show near Scandinavia that would be a good signal. Now we are starting to see the Pac and Scan balanced in SD but the SE Ridge challenging for the lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looking over the ens this AM looks like the pattern of 2 days of "a way out of this" looks and 2 days of "locked in" looks continue. Notable degrading of the way out looks overnight. SE Ridge now starting to flex and look like more a player than we may want. Someone mentioned as long as the greatest SD arent in the Pac and begin to show near Scandinavia that would be a good signal. Now we are starting to see the Pac and Scan balanced in SD but the SE Ridge challenging for the lead. Problem continues to be the monster Pac ridge. Until it weakens/shifts/morphs into something other than what it is, the SE ridge will be a mainstay. IF we can get legit +height anomalies up top/in the NA, then the bad Pac can be mitigated somewhat, and compressed heights to our N/NE should suppress/flatten the SE ridge some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Problem continues to be the monster Pac ridge. Until it weakens/shifts/morphs into something other than what it is, the SE ridge will be a mainstay. IF we can get legit +height anomalies up top/in the NA, then the bad Pac can be mitigated somewhat, and compressed heights to our N/NE should suppress/flatten the SE ridge some. I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that. Pretty much all guidance has a major convective wave over the MC going forward. Beyond that it dies out, but really shows little impetus to progress into the WPAC and towards the dateline. Most likely it will flare up again in the same location(phases 4-5). That big ass Pacific ridge is not going anywhere if that continues. The only way out over the next 2-3 weeks is significant help up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Pretty much all guidance has a major convective wave over the MC going forward. Beyond that it dies out, but really shows little impetus to progress into the WPAC and towards the dateline. Most likely it will flare up again in the same location(phases 4-5). That big ass Pacific ridge is not going anywhere if that continues. The only way out over the next 2-3 weeks is significant NA help.I think winter is over...January is cooked and snow past February 18th is difficult and not fun anyway due to sun angle. If we dont see a storm in early feb...we are looking at possible worst winter ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: I think winter is over...January is cooked and snow past February 18th is difficult It wasn't too difficult in Feb 2015. Winter essentially started mid Feb. We might have to hope we get that chance this year lol. eta- One thing of note here- when we look at the advertised h5 pattern on an ens mean, we get the general picture, and in this case, we can clearly see it is stable and unfavorable for snow here. That being said, there are always perturbations/relaxations in the 500 mb pattern that are less discernible on a LR mean , even one that features a sustained blocking ridge. Although our snow chances are severely limited based on the advertised mean long wave pattern, it is not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: There are some positive signs, but not sure I would call it eye candy. Micro improvement maybe?. I also don't see the major 500 mb features in any hurry go anywhere- the mean PAC ridge and downstream trough look pretty stable. What could somewhat get us out of this rut and back in the game sooner is help in the NA, and there are hints, but that remains to be seen. My expectations at this point are maybe we can salvage the last week of January, and there is always the possibility of getting lucky before that, but odds are pretty low. I was just happy to see NOVA under the blue color for two runs in a row. If that look holds at 12z, I think we have to consider starting a new thread. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I was just happy to see NOVA under the blue color for two runs in a row. If that look holds at 12z, I think we have to consider starting a new thread. LOL Not sure I saw that but will look. Must have been late op run. Every day I wait for GEFS and click 384 h5. Then I punch myself in the face and wait for another 6 hours. It’s a very good system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Well for those of you who really dislike progressive patterns, at least there won't be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, cbmclean said: Well for those of you who really dislike progressive patterns, at least there won't be that. We do pretty well at failing in those too lol. At least we wont be complaining about warm/wet followed by cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 It wasn't too difficult in Feb 2015. Winter essentially started mid Feb. We might have to hope we get that chance this year lol. eta- One thing of note here- when we look at the advertised h5 pattern on an ens mean, we get the general picture, and in this case, we can clearly see it is stable and unfavorable for snow here. That being said, there are always perturbations/relaxations in the 500 mb pattern that are less discernible on a LR mean , even one that features a sustained blocking ridge. Although our snow chances are severely limited based on the advertised mean long wave pattern, it is not zero.We cant even get snow when the pattern is favorable for snow. You will not see snow until jan 25 at the earliest and you know it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Anybody see the NAM for Tuesday?...lol I mean we all know it’s out to lunch but jeez. Yeah I’m sure midday snow would lead to the NAMs clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: We cant even get snow when the pattern is favorable for snow. You will not see snow until jan 25 at the earliest and you know it lol I have said exactly that several times over the past couple days.That is my expectation, especially imby. Your area could more easily luck into something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround. I agree , the secondary move up in the AO forecast is very concerning. Some members with a ( + 6 ) Standard deviation. The warm feedback loop is very consistent. At the same time the PNA is set to go significantly negative. ( - 2 SD ) Forget snow and cold until early Feb, possibly later......Jan is written off in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Guidance still continuing on predictions that MJO wave will go strong into crap phases followed by degradation into the COD. I am starting to really dislike the SW Pacific region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6. That looks a little better than yesterday's forecast, which had it weakening just as it was moving into phase 6, then into the COD. Looked like from there it might loop and flare up right near the MC again. Hopefully the strength and forward momentum will take it into phase 7 before it weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is ugly lol. I just looked at the 0z and 6z GEFS, and IMO there were incremental steps back compared to 18z run wrt pattern improvement in the LR.. This is going to require some serious patience. I don't think there are any quick fixes to get from where we are currently to a favorable pattern for snow. My mindset is expect nothing but mild/rain, with transient cool shots after cutters, through Jan 20th. Keep watching the means to see if noticeable improvement gets pushed back, or maybe occurs sooner. I doubt the latter at this time though. Agreed. Scandinavian ridging looks less than last few runs and that really degraded the press of cold on "our side", as we know we need something to dislodge things upstairs. trough in SW is killin us and IF we cant get help from AO/NAO we are really reaching for how it can work. Just no way to sugarcoat it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 GFS coming in a little colder for Tuesday. Weak sauce but ill take what I can get. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS coming in a little colder for Tuesday. Weak sauce but ill take what I can get. Lol Some wet flakes and maybe a coating would be nice, esp given the advertised pattern over the next couple weeks. I should head to the western highlands. Looks like some decent winter out there over the next few days. Will be hard to come by in the very near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. 12Z GFS has about the same for out my way. Has a nice little 1.6 inch jack for the Frederick, MD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. Thats the way im looking at it. It might be the last flakes we see for a while lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Figures we get would get a locked in, stable pattern that is the exact opposite of what we want, heading into prime climo for cold/snow. Prime climo for snow for this region is now the month of March. It hardly ever snows December and January any more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Prime climo for snow for this region is now the month of March. It hardly ever snows December and January any more. It snowed last January...lol But prime climo is pushed to mid/late January, though--I never expect anything before then. (This year it's shaping up to be February at the rate we're going) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Cmc with 2 to 4" for North and West. To bad the CMC is a shiit model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now