January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[LP08]

ICON at 18z has the best track for next weeks “event”.  Temps are less than desirable but at least out west it’s a good run.

[CAPE]

I just mentioned the QBO value for Dec(avg zonal wind at the equator) @ 30 mb, m/s, dropped to 1.66. It has been positive and trending slowly and steadily towards neutral through fall and now early winter.

Looking at the temp correlations for winter below, that puts us in regime C. Not bad. Maybe as we get into mid/late winter, this will become more of a driver. Ofc it will help a ton if the MJO doesn't keep looping through the warm phases.

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Seems all 3 major global ens are heading in the same general direction up top. We are in watch and wait mode to see if things continue to "trend" favorably.

 

Doesn't look like the nasty -pna is going to release its grip inside of 2 weeks so that part sucks but enough hints that the Atl will do just enough to put us back in the game even with a -pna. 

It's comical that we're intently tracking and excited for a pattern change that still isn't good in the big picture. Lol. Yep, that's where we are... again... experts at tracking how to get out of shutout patterns. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't look like the nasty -pna is going to release its grip inside of 2 weeks so that part sucks but enough hints that the Atl will do just enough to put us back in the game even with a -pna. 

It's comical that we're intently tracking and excited for a pattern change that still isn't good in the big picture. Lol. Yep, that's where we are... again... experts at tracking how to get out of shutout patterns. 

Yeah it is what it is. We have to accept the reality of the situation- pretty likely the first 3 weeks of Jan are gone. It can still turn around though, and at least we are seeing some positive signs. Problem is, we are rooting predominately for a favorable NA to be the pattern savior at this juncture, which has not worked out so much in recent winters lol. Given my limited understanding, we have the QBO and low solar working in our favor to that end for the back end of winter. Too bad we don't have a legit weak Nino.

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Seems all 3 major global ens are heading in the same general direction up top. We are in watch and wait mode to see if things continue to "trend" favorably.

 

Ok so let's say this look holds. Does the SE ridge reflection save us from systems sliding south? Or would this look simply more of a cold entrenched surface with overrunning and ice ala 93-94? I'm thinking just looking at this there would be a boundary/gradient with systems trying to cut but CAD being entrenched due to the PV getting squashed  from the Scan ridging. I know the look isnt horrible....just looks like a signal is there for icy with the strong PV just to the N and the SE Ridge flexing. I dunno....just talking out loud. Not much tracking attm.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it is what it is. We have to accept reality of the situation- pretty likely the first 3 weeks of Jan are gone. It can still turn around though, and at least we are seeing some positive signs. Problem is, we are rooting predominately for a favorable NA to be the pattern savior at this juncture, which has not worked out so much in recent winters lol. Given my limited understanding, we have the QBO and low solar working in our favor to that end for the back end of winter. Too bad we don't have a legit weak Nino.

Given the +3 AO I almost expected to see the QBO had stalled. Once near 0 like it is now, in descending mode it should be helpful. 

I said back in fall that I wasn’t sure how much climate change had rendered seasonal analogs useless and this year would be telling imo. Because the climate models all said +NAM warm winter. They seem to have nailed it. But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't look like the nasty -pna is going to release its grip inside of 2 weeks so that part sucks but enough hints that the Atl will do just enough to put us back in the game even with a -pna. 

It's comical that we're intently tracking and excited for a pattern change that still isn't good in the big picture. Lol. Yep, that's where we are... again... experts at tracking how to get out of shutout patterns. 

We excel at trying to find ways to escape crap patterns and tellies. Lots of experience among us.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the +3 AO I almost expected to see the QBO had stalled. Once near 0 like it is now, in descending mode it should be helpful. 

I said back in fall that I wasn’t sure how much climate change had rendered seasonal analogs useless and this year would be telling imo. Because the climate models all said +NAM warm winter. They seem to have nailed it. But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo. 

Seems it is becoming increasingly more difficult to rely on historical teleconnections and analogs because of this. That is a topic for another thread though, and we don't want to get you know who all hot and bothered.

As for the QBO value, yeah you would think we would be closer to a neutral AO if not slightly negative. We know how to gauge it by looking at the surface pressures near the pole, but the actual AO values per the teleconnections are different, and the measurements can be taken at different pressure heights, so Idk. 

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo

This is unfortunate...because that means one less we can snow here now. If it can only happen during moderate Niños (since obviously last year's weak one also didn't work under these new climate conditions), I'm wondering if we're in danger of only getting legitimate snows an average of 3/10 years per decade as opposed to our current 4 or 5/10 years. (I mean mod ninos...why are those only once or twice a decade, anyway? Smh) 

If climate change is now stealing lowering our chances for snow even MORE...we need to appreciate whatever we get, however we get it (ESPECIALLY warning level snows)

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We excel at trying to find ways to escape crap patterns and tellies. Lots of experience among us.

Keep it simple... just hug the d11-12 18z gfs and pray it's right. Best run in days for getting out of the mess we're in...

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Keep it simple... just hug the d11-12 18z gfs and pray it's right. Best run in days for getting out of the mess we're in...

Kara Block FTW 

[Ji]

Keep it simple... just hug the d11-12 18z gfs and pray it's right. Best run in days for getting out of the mess we're in...

Still hard for me to get excited

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020010318&fh=378

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Kara Block FTW 

All disclaimers apply to op runs late but man, I really liked a lot on the 18z gfs from d10-16. D18 is an extrapolated snowstorm. Need gefs to agree on the speed of kicking out that nasty trough. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Still hard for me to get excited

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020010318&fh=378

The D18 extended gfs snows on us

[Ji]

The D18 extended gfs snows on us

Gfs is always 4 days early days early so that takes us to the jan 25 2020 storm....that we have tired for 20 years to get

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The D18 extended gfs snows on us

Gefs doesn’t have the Kara block (which is unlikely to be correct at that range) but it is heading towards right anyways. 

It’s building a -NAO and weakening and retrograding the pac ridge. What we need is the right in the NAO to be stronger than the one in the pac and then we will see the western trough broaden and slide east. It’s almost there at the end on this run. 

[frd]

@poolz1   wondering whether right now and for the next 5 to 7 days we see the strongest winter pv. 

Temps very cold and zonal winds increasing but then, after day 10, things begin to change up top. 

Hopefully, in time we transition to a more favorable NAM state versus the current ugly + values.

 

  

 

 

  

[frd]

Looking to down under for some positive signs for our weather ........   subtle indications changes are going to start by mid to late month.  

A recent post by Paul Roundy

I believe some new data on the IOD is set to release in two more days. 

 

  

[PivotPoint]

30 minutes ago, frd said:

Looking to down under for some positive signs for our weather ........   subtle indications changes are going to start by mid to late month.  

A recent post by Paul Roundy

I believe some new data on the IOD is set to release in two more days. 

 

  

The problem with “searching” for changes beyond day 10, is that stable features always degrade quicker on models than what happens in reality. There’s a unrealistic expectation that any model can predict even macro level pattern evolutions. Never has been done. So my thoughts are a super strong WPAC ridge has to have an equally strong counter influence at some point to change its reload pattern. Which generally speaking is trough west coast/ridge east coast. That general look will not change until that ridge stops reloading imo

[frd]

8 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Which generally speaking is trough west coast/ridge east coast. That general look will not change until that ridge stops reloading imo

I agree,  any beneficial changes for us will take time and patience.  

[Weather Will]

Since there is nothing else to track.... latest ICON WB 0z Sat. for Tuesday

[Chris78]

Icon is close. Maybe we can luck into something. Would help for it to speed up by about 6 hours.

Edit : ninja'd by @Weather Will

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs looks a bit colder at the surface leading in this run for Tuesday 

Yep. Temps in the mid to to upper 30's Tuesday afternoon. Nice trend but still more work to do.

[cbmclean]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the +3 AO I almost expected to see the QBO had stalled. Once near 0 like it is now, in descending mode it should be helpful. 

I said back in fall that I wasn’t sure how much climate change had rendered seasonal analogs useless and this year would be telling imo. Because the climate models all said +NAM warm winter. They seem to have nailed it. But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo. 

Never heard of Atlantic tripole before.

[Wonderdog]

Nice eye candy developing at the end of the last two GFS runs. Maybe a sign of an earlier pattern change?

[showmethesnow]

I know many are seeing this 10-15 day ESP map and saying 'Oh Crap', I know I am though my comments are more of the R-rated nature. With very strong indications that the central PAC ridging and the Western trough will be semi permanent features for the foreseeable future it doesn't bode well for our chances as we see the heights pumped up in the east. ***GEFS is similar though the major features (PAC ridging, Western trough, Eastern ridging, extension of the pv) are shifted a little to the west.***

Our hopes at this point reside in what we are seeing around the NAO domain to hopefully trump the extremely hostile PAC. Right now what we have is the PV planted in the western NAO domain with it extending to the SE of Greenland. We are also seeing ridging nosing into Greenland. Now this look doesn't particularly give me the warm and fuzzys on trumping anything  though I do see some indications that we could possibly work with this as well (I will explain later in that regard.). BUT..... throw stronger ridging and height builds into Greenland, the stronger the better, and it is possibly a different story. We see this and we should see the pv respond by dropping farther south dragging the extension of it along with it. Now the effects of shifting of the PV feature southward is two fold. First the PV placement farther south will help knock down the heights in the east dragging the mean boundary (cold air) south along with it. 2nd we would hopefully see the extension of the PV shifted to the south as well into the general 50/50 region which would imply a semi permanent 50/50 low in that region. This would favor amplification of the wave lengths/lows in a favorable location for our general region. Now a slight shift south just will not cut it for us. I am talking a somewhat major shift (central Hudson Bay region latitude), give us this and I would feel much better about our chances.

 

 

Now though I would prefer the above scenario to play out given the hostile PAC (much better odds) I do see the possibilities given the above look presented at this time.

What we are seeing on the models through the day 10-15 period is that they are driving storms through the 50/50 region on their way to the semi permanent low planted SE of Greenland which is key. Behind these lows the boundary gets dragged southward hopefully putting it in a favorable position for our region for any possible follow up energy.. And though the SS looks fairly dead at this time (wouldn't rule it out as of yet) we are still seeing quite a bit of energy in the mid-Latitude flow. At this time the flow/setup would favor seeing amplification of trailing systems, it would just be a matter of where we see this occur and that comes all down to timing/distance between the lead temp 50/50 low and the trailing low (otherwise we will see the boundary pull northward again as the SE ridging exerts itself once again). Were talking a more thread the needle type scenario vs the above example so we are talking lower odds. At this time both the GEFS and the EPS have fairly strong indications of this exact scenario playing out around roughly day 12 in roughly a favorable location for our locale. (I hope I don't have to repeat the usual disclaimers of talking about something that is 12 days out).

So anyway, I guess what I am saying is, don'tgive up quite yet. There are still possibilities despite what the models are throwing at us.

 

 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Nice eye candy developing at the end of the last two GFS runs. Maybe a sign of an earlier pattern change?

There are some positive signs, but not sure I would call it eye candy. Micro improvement maybe?. I also don't see the major 500 mb features in any hurry go anywhere- the mean PAC ridge and downstream trough look pretty stable. What could somewhat get us out of this rut and back in the game sooner is help in the NA, and there are hints, but that remains to be seen. My expectations at this point are maybe we can salvage the last week of January, and there is always the possibility of getting lucky before that, but odds are pretty low.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There are some positive signs, but not sure I would call it eye candy. Micro improvement maybe?. I also don't see the major 500 mb features in any hurry go anywhere- the mean PAC ridge and downstream trough look pretty stable. What could somewhat get us out of this rut and back in the game sooner is help in the NA, and there are hints, but that remains to be seen. My expectations at this point are maybe we can salvage the last week of January, and there is always the possibility of getting lucky before that, but odds are pretty low.

An op run so this isn't really worth much, BUT DAMN...

And here I thought I was the optimistic one. You are a better man then me if you can see positives out of this. 

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

An op run so this isn't really worth much, BUT DAMN...

And here I thought I was the optimistic one. You are a better man then me if you can see positives out of this. 

 

That is ugly lol. I just looked at the 0z and 6z GEFS, and IMO there were incremental steps back compared to 18z run wrt pattern improvement in the LR.. This is going to require some serious patience. I don't think there are any quick fixes to get from where we are currently to a favorable pattern for snow. My mindset is expect nothing but mild/rain, with transient cool shots after cutters, through Jan 20th. Keep watching the means to see if noticeable improvement gets pushed back, or maybe occurs sooner. I doubt the latter at this time though.

[CAPE]

 @showmethesnow

 6z GEFS likes it.