WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think it was Dec 9 2017. I had 6” up here. The cities only had 2” or so but I know not far NW had 3-5”. I think IAD had 4. Maybe it missed lees burg. I had just over 3” from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I had just over 3” from that. Like it matters he just tossed out a 12” storm as “barely counting”. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: How can you live in a world where a reverse bust that drops a foot+ barely counts? 18z gfs says screw my post about things might be improving. Looks worse at the end than the beginning. Uh oh Off hour run. Toss it. ...it is ugly though. Undoes all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look. But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Off hour run. Toss it. ...it is ugly though. Undies all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look. But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it. I have to admit that I am not optimistic. I still can't get past the analogs in your research. That and the atrocious MJO forecast have me calling shenanigans on these improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I have to admit that I am not optimistic. I still can't get past the analogs in your research. That and the atrocious MJO forecast have me calling shenanigans on these improvements. It doesn’t look good but there are ways out. Those years were mostly Nina’s. If the NAM state flips the last week of Jan the mean pattern may look more like the non Nina analogs I posted. The new weeklies are a better look in Feb. not great. But they won’t be right exactly. If they are wrong and the trough is a bit more suppressed with a bit more ridging over the top it becomes a good look. If it’s the other way...not so much. Flip the coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It doesn’t look good but there are ways out. Those years were mostly Nina’s. If the NAM state flips the last week of Jan the mean pattern may look more like the non Nina analogs I posted. The new weeklies are a better look in Feb. not great. But they won’t be right exactly. If they are wrong and the trough is a bit more suppressed with a bit more ridging over the top it becomes a good look. If it’s the other way...not so much. Flip the coin. Really anxious to see what Dr. No has to say about it at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The Jan 2019 storm was pretty disappointing in balt city - scraped for get to five inches and missed the second part entirely. Really, since Jan 2016 it has been pretty fallow inside the 695 loop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Off hour run. Toss it. ...it is ugly though. Undoes all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look. But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it. the 18 GEFS disagrees with the neverending shutout look of the 18 gfs op model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The Jan 2019 storm was pretty disappointing in balt city - scraped for get to five inches and missed the second part entirely. Really, since Jan 2016 it has been pretty fallow inside the 695 loop... How much did Baltimore city get March 21 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, leo2000 said: the 18 GEFS disagrees with the neverending shutout look of the 18 gfs op model. I thought it was a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Maybe there was a good storm or two in there, but I literally don't remember getting anything more than 1-3 inches or so since the January 2016 blizzard. I don't recall any storm since then where I was doing any real shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: March 21 2018 I'm pretty sure totals netted 4-6" in Baltimore city . Where in the city r u? Just realized your in Howard county. They probably got the same if not more I'd think I had 7.2” from that event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 58 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement. Still show a horrible H5 pattern after day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The climo thing is old. I get frustrated when we go stretches without snow and I get more of it so I don’t blame anyone for the frustration. So simply saying it has sucked is fine. When I go off on someone like Mdecoy or whatever he is going by now, it’s not for being frustrated, it’s for making up BS climo proclamations. It’s ok to feel like it sucks. But it’s not ok to pretend this isn’t normal. Truth is our climo sucks. Every once in a while we get lucky with a year or most recent a string of them when snow comes easy. The other 75% of the time is long stretches of nothingness with an occasional fluke storm or two mixed in if we’re lucky. Our base state is suck. We’re just far enough north that in a rare good pattern where the jet gets suppressed near our longitude we can get into the goods. The rest of the time we’re frustratingly too far south. Close enough to feel screwed when the storms go just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: How much did Baltimore city get March 21 2018? I would have to go back and check my notes from the annual thread but my immediate recall is that one also underperformed here inside the 695 beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I would have to go back and check my notes from the annual thread but my immediate recall is that one also underperformed here inside the 695 beltway. I work in Baltimore. So I’m well aware. I often see it go from snowcover to nothing once I get into the city. From experience I don’t expect there to ever be much at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I work in Baltimore. So I’m well aware. I often see it go from snowcover to nothing once I get into the city. I don’t expect there to ever be much at work. If my school gets 3” I feel the same expectation wise as if my house got 8” Just found the old thread - according to my notes I had .5 of ice from first part of storm and did make it to 5 inches on second part so it did verify the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: March 21 2018 I'm pretty sure totals netted 4-6" in Baltimore city . Where in the city r u? Just realized your in Howard county. They probably got the same if not more I'd think 40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I had 7.2” from that event I measure 6.3” from that event. I remember cross country skiing at the golf course here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: How can you live in a world where a reverse bust that drops a foot+ barely counts? 18z gfs says screw my post about things might be improving. Looks worse at the end than the beginning. Uh oh that was not a fun storm for me lol..i predicted 8-12 inches and i told facebook that there would be 6 inches on the ground sunday morning with heavy snow falling. I think there was 5 or so when i woke up and we were in a terrible dry slot with no guarantee of a back end..and people were were not happy....it looked like we were headed towards a bust..and then i started seeing some impressive HRRR runs for the afternoon.....that was the best afternoon of snow since Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The climo thing is old. I get frustrated when we go stretches without snow and I get more of it so I don’t blame anyone for the frustration. So simply saying it has sucked is fine. When I go off on someone like Mdecoy or whatever he is going by now, it’s not for being frustrated, it’s for making up BS climo proclamations. It’s ok to feel like it sucks. But it’s not ok to pretend this isn’t normal. Truth is our climo sucks. Every once in a while we get lucky with a year or most recent a string of them when snow comes easy. The other 75% of the time is long stretches of nothingness with an occasional fluke storm or two mixed in if we’re lucky. Our base state is suck. We’re just far enough north that in a rare good pattern where the jet gets suppressed near our longitude we can get into the goods. The rest of the time we’re frustratingly too far south. Close enough to feel screwed when the storms go just north of us. climo should not be an issue for you. You are more of PA climate than DC climate...your pretty much 40N while the rest of us have to sweat shit all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I love CAD....and there is nothing like a CAD event but i wonder how much more snow we would have if we didnt have CAD/Mountains and this snow was easily able to make it to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I love CAD....and there is nothing like a CAD event but i wonder how much more snow we would have if we didnt have CAD/Mountains and this snow was easily able to make it to us. Draw a line west of the mountains and that’s about how much...and you wouldby like it. You would sacrifice a few small storms from west to east clippers for big totals where CAD saves us from a flip. Our best storms that track south of us have enough easterly wind component that the downslope isn’t an issue. It’s when we’re stuck in a pattern with lows going to our west that it sucks but that pattern wouldn’t be that good anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ji said: climo should not be an issue for you. You are more of PA climate than DC climate...your pretty much 40N while the rest of us have to sweat shit all the time I do a lot better than DC. And I’m not complaining. But I’m not far enough north that I’m not susceptible to snow droughts also. But when it’s good it can get really good. And when the pattern is marginal it can be pretty good here. But the total fail suck fest patters aren’t much better here either. I’m not the frozen tundra or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 00z GFS is a boon from Sunday through middle of next week for the mountains. Ski resorts need those upslope conditions to help rebuild their pack through natural & snow making before Hades moves in the following week. Their winter economies rely on the snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just for fun, here is the list of years since 1931-32, where Albuquerque has had more snow than DC, Baltimore, NYC, and Philly combined through January 2. The four NE cities average 5.1, 3.7, 3.4, 2.8 respectively for total snow through the end of December...or 15 inches in total in an average year. Albuquerque averages 1/4 of that - 3.7 inches through December in an average year. Looks a lot like what the models have for January. Completely different for February. Almost all are good Oct-May periods for snow out here, except for 1954-55, 1949-50, 2001-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 22 hours ago, cbmclean said: Why does convection there feed the central pacific ridge? This is an oversimplification but as the heat released from the convective waves expand away from the equator (poleward) it is deflected to the right of its path by the coriolis effect. So basically... vs the cold phase convection locations the exact effect of the mjo wave phases change seasonally as the wavelengths and resistance to the heat release changes. But in winter that is the basic effect. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: 00z GFS is a boon from Sunday through middle of next week for the mountains. Ski resorts need those upslope conditions to help rebuild their pack through natural & snow making before Hades moves in the following week. Their winter economies rely on the snow/cold. Not going to do them much good. By the time they build up their base the torch will come and obliterate it. Its likely going to be a very rough year for them. By the time we get consistent cold (if we do) its likely too late for them to recover. They might have a good second half but losing the front 1/2 of winter is a killer for them. And in years where it’s crappy early often people turn to other things or go out west and it impacts them later too. Just realistically it’s going to be a bad year for them. It happens. They are used to it. The resorts that do a good job managing their Capitol will survive so long as we don’t get multiple years like that strung together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: How much did Baltimore city get March 21 2018? I'm not sure we got any more than 3 or 4 inches (will have to check the official record, though). And with last January's 4.8 inches...we still technically haven't had a warning level event verify here since 2016, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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