Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 44 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What exit? Safe travels. South Jersey place to be on this one...well pretty good anyway. Like Bob said mangled events can occur. Cherry Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 NAMs say what precipitation? other than the initial rainband tomorrow theres a complete lack of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: NAMs say what precipitation? other than the initial rainband tomorrow theres a complete lack of precip Doesnt dig the ULL as much and trof is more positively tilted and progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 GFS still not buying into the possible storm this weekend. Saw some slight improvements as far as the 500s as we continue to see run over run higher heights/ridging in front of the trough. Yet it degraded with the surface low as it is ejecting it eastward a little quicker then the previous run. For any hope for our region we need that low to be as slow as possible.once it gets off the coast (farther south would be a big help as well).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Gfs wants none of what the euro has for the weekend, but is close for next week’s chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs wants none of what the euro has for the weekend, but is close for next week’s chance. sadly...850 temps are well below 0 but surface temps are 45 tuesday afternoon. #globarwarning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: sadly...850 temps are well below 0 but surface temps are 45 tuesday afternoon. #globarwarning Yeah boundary layer is torched, but a stronger low could help that. Timing between the northern and southern stream lows as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Showmethesnow and some others are all over the medium range threats. The upper low pass this weekend is interesting. My gut says the low wraps up a little too late for anything significant in our area. That is usually how these go, but that H5 pass is good enough to think a little surprise is possible. The day 6 thing depends on 2 things imo. If we can either get the energy crashing into the west to back off and not compress the flow which prevents the system digging under us in the east....OR if we can get a little more ridging near Hudson bay. There has been a trend towards some ridging there...a bit more and that can compensate and act as a bootleg block. We actually have had a lot of decent snow events from that bootleg look. But... looking ahead I wanted to post something hopeful for long range. I already posted the analogs to a January central pac ridge +NAM regime and its not good. BUT...I was thinking almost all of them are either Nina years or cold neutral following Nina years. There were no good enso comps within that set. The fact that all of them were nina years might indicate this year could have more a chance at variability than those did when the enso supported that ridge alingment more than the current sst does. Look at the SST anomalies for the years I posted before...NOTHING like this year. Almost the complete opposite actually. So I went looking for somewhat similar years where there was at least a 1-2 week pattern like what is coming during a similar enso. I will admit this took some liberties. I did restrict it to January patterns but I had to cherry pick weeks from different parts of the month to find comps. Admittedly there really are NO great comps other than nina years. And admittedly the NAM state isnt as awfull as it is right now in these 5 comp patterns I found...but overall its a close enough look to think this might have some merit. There were similar patterns for a portion of January in 1952, 1960, 1962, 1979, and 2006. 1952 was a borderline weak nino warm neutral enso. 1960 was a neutral following a nino, 1962 was neutral following a neutral. 1979 was a neutral following a weak nino, and 2006 was a very weak nina following a nino. Those are all much better enso matches. This is the composite of the January periods that looked somewhat similar to this year. This is the February patterns for those years For the purposes of scientific integrity I will admit that the methodology used to get these matches was more biased and subjective than the last set of analogs. But it is true that those others do not match our current SST or ENSO at all. These years are better matches in that regard. These years are also perfect PAC matches. They are not as good wrt to the AO/NAO though, especially for the whole month. But we don't know yet what the second half of January will be. We can assume the first half will feature a PAC ridge +NAM regime but the second half could flip enough to alter the monthly mean look some. But for these to be valid we need to see the NAM state start to flip soon. What differentiated these analogs from the others the most was that by mid January the NAM state was in transition to a negative AO/NAO combo that lasted the rest of those winters. There were absolutely no examples of a similar pac look that improved at all absent a better AO/NAO state. One other interesting thing to note, and someone asked about this yesterday. Most of the years that improved did so by retrograding the pac ridge NOT progressing it. My take away from this... if we start to see improvements up top by the middle of January the door is open to a much better outcome...and that is supported by enso analogs. But those years this pattern didn't lock in for more than 2 weeks or so. The years where this NAM/PAC combo locks in for more than 2/3 weeks or so...its permanent and lasts pretty much all winter. We are still a ways away from being at that point...and there have been some baby steps in the long range trends wrt the NAM state. So when factoring in the enso and sst there may be more hope than the previous analog look suggests. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 If you live west of DC I’d say you can stop even thinking about anything this weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you live west of DC I’d say you can stop even thinking about anything this weekend. still struggling to understand why anyone was even thinking about it to begin with myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks Another thing I took away from the GEFS is the solid vodka cold all the way across Canada. would suck to improve the pattern but have weak sauce cold in the source regions. Don't see that to be the case right now unless I read it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 @Bob Chill That look matches the "better" enso analogs I posted earlier today way more than the disgusting looks the guidance were tossing out 24-48 hours ago. It's a subtle difference...the main one being the higher heights pressing the pattern over the top from Scandinavia and the EPO ridge poking over the top more as well. Not only is that look better for our prospects the rest of January...but it is a MUCH better omen for our prospects in February. That look tends to roll over into a pretty good pattern more often than the one we were getting yesterday. Hopefully this trend continues and we may be able to open that escape hatch after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks I had a good feeling this was going to happen!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Another thing I took away from the GEFS is the solid vodka cold all the way across Canada. would suck to improve the pattern but have weak sauce cold in the source regions. Don't see that to be the case right now unless I read it wrong. One saving grace about the PAC ridge pattern is it will promote enough cross polar flow that there should be ample cold in western and northern North America. That means things can flip FAST if we can get some mechanism to get that into the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Another thing I took away from the GEFS is the solid vodka cold all the way across Canada. would suck to improve the pattern but have weak sauce cold in the source regions. Don't see that to be the case right now unless I read it wrong. There's going to be very anomalous cold building in BC dropping into the west sometime around d10. That airmass will likely make it here (imho). Modified quite a bit of course but it will be our first real continental airmass since mid Dec. Root for a stemwinder in the midwest that opens the door back to more workable cold. A big wound up storm will help compress flow to our north and reshuffle the deck in a good way. Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill That look matches the "better" enso analogs I posted earlier today way more than the disgusting looks the guidance were tossing out 24-48 hours ago. It's a subtle difference...the main one being the higher heights pressing the pattern over the top from Scandinavia and the EPO ridge poking over the top more as well. Not only is that look better for our prospects the rest of January...but it is a MUCH better omen for our prospects in February. That look tends to roll over into a pretty good pattern more often than the one we were getting yesterday. Hopefully this trend continues and we may be able to open that escape hatch after all. If the GEFS has the right idea then we're good for getting out of the toaster bath boiling in the dumpster fire before Feb. Context of my post (which I know you always get) was not that winter is magically blasting back in and off to the races. Just that the longwave pattern will FINALLY allow for real continental cold to move through fairly slowly instead of hit and run ridge/trough. Storm track should morph into a more W-E orientation. Get that type of storm track with just "normal Jan temps" and we can score something that may actually need a shovel instead of wind/sun/salt/broom. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One saving grace about the PAC ridge pattern is it will promote enough cross polar flow that there should be ample cold in western and northern North America. That means things can flip FAST if we can get some mechanism to get that into the east. Some of the d10-15 850 temp anomaly maps the ens are spitting out are really impressive for BC. Even for NW Canada standards... it looks like a legit cold factory setting up and it will spill into the conus not too far down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks That isn’t far from looking really good. Keep that southern stream bringing chances across and a continent wide pool of cold air. This is my memory of 96. Memories can be tricky but mine has it that that year was many times coast to coast cold with frequent storms sliding across. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Euro totally caved on the weekend thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That isn’t far from looking really good. Keep that southern stream bringing chances across and a continent wide pool of cold air. This is my memory of 96. Memories can be tricky but mine has it that that year was many times coast to coast cold with frequent storms sliding across. In one of my posts this morning I alluded to how this trend might not be the perfect or ideal look just yet BUT we are getting some help finally on the Atl side irt the Scandinavian ridge/block. Moving forward we not only are seeing the active 50/50 region that has been with us seemingly since Oct but we are seeing that building Atl ridge anchoring the 50/50 in place. If THAT is step one towards the better look, better chances, and a convoluted pattern I will take that look to bed with me monday thru saturday and twice on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro totally caved on the weekend thing. As long as it totally caves on the long range pattern too I will forgive it this once. Seriously though...I know the running joke is "why does the model with no snow always win" but that isnt true when we are in a pattern conducive for snow. Granted it does't seem that way but that is because 80% of the time we aren't in a good pattern for snow. But that is our climo. But when we know the overall longwave pattern isn't conducive for a snowstorm...going with the model with the snowy outcome, even when it's the euro, is a bad idea. I know you know that...just pointing it out before we get the typical comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro totally caved on the weekend thing. The progressive pattern and unfavorable indices argued against this. Another win for the AO / PNA guidance. Honestly I think I rather have the PNA + and have a neutral NAM state. I would not be surprised to see the follow up event go to a cutter. The cutter theme goes back to last winter as we all know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Euro was apparently nearly on its own relative to its own ensembles the last couple days too in regards to that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But when we know the overall longwave pattern isn't conducive for a snowstorm...going with the model with the snowy outcome, even when it's the euro, is a bad idea. Those are wise words. Even though the Euro has the highest skill and verification numbers you have to consider , as you said, the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Mersky said: this doesnt make sense. a progressive pattern would not lead to a cutter for the next event. I suppose a true "cutter" is a storm that bombs out into the lakes...but we have come to call any system that goes to our NW a cutter. And there most definitely can be a track to our NW in a progressive pattern if there is too much ridging along the east coast and no blocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro totally caved on the weekend thing. that usually happens when @showmethesnowgets excited about something 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 did you all know pivitol has clickable soundings for the euro now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 JB posts something like this every 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: did you all know pivitol has clickable soundings for the euro now? It’s a game changer 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, Mersky said: this doesnt make sense. a progressive pattern would not lead to a cutter for the next event. In regards to what I meant , @psuhoffman did such a great job of replying I will stop here. You can see his post above. Thanks psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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