January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

It’s probably going to all go out the window next run but the 18z EPS Control was going to go 3/3 on winter threats this week... nothing that impressive but a dusting with the ULL on Sunday, dusting with the clipper on Monday, and a light event looks incoming on Wednesday.

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 The strong convection there will feed the central pac ridge

Why does convection there feed the central pacific ridge?

[binbisso]

Both the GEFS and geps trying to bring the trough into the east late in the Run. Looks like they're trying to connect the ridge from Scandinavia right across the pole to the aleutians. Very late in the run the ridge looks to retrograde but days 13 to 15 look serviceable during Prime climo

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps now has a closed 500mb low for Saturday night . Chances increasing a bit for rain changing to snow in areas .

How far south does it pass? 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Similar to the op. ...central to north central Va. Its steadily bumped south the last few runs 

Thanks.  Interesting.  That’s a good spot for a lot of us. I know for clippers which are now extinct RIC pass is money.  Your location imagine a NOVA pass is fine too.  Any flakes would be fine. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

EPS and GEFS continue the trend for some higher heights in the AO region beginning by ~ 200 hours. If you look at the delta changes over the past 4 or 5 runs those rises have been notable. Now whether that is a passing thing from the TPV wobble or might be a sign of some changes moving forward in the overall hemi pattern not sure. But thought that was worth mentioning anyway since that is a key area where we hope to see some signs of changes as we move ahead.

Eta: did a little more digging and it appears to my old eyes that the Central Pac ridge is actually aiding in the development I mentioned by trying to feed rising heights into that region. There is a signal among ens members also that the extension into the AO tries and form a quasi ridge bridge across the Pole into Scandinavia (gefs faster and more aggressive). This isnt fantasy range as it is beginning just under 200 hours now. That wouldnt be a terrible look and certainly something to watch.

[showmethesnow]

Euro suite officially has my interest for this weekend.

What we have seen generally run over run the last few days is that the trough pulling through the East is now taking on a nuetralish tilt compared to the positive tilt seen just a couple of days ago. We are also seeing better height builds/ridging in front of the trough which is helping to turn this trough. In response to this more favorable setup at 500's the low is responding as it lags further and further behind waiting for the 500's to catch up to it. Now this is hour 78 just after the 850's have cleared the bay. Note that the mean low is off the Jersey shores at this point. The look at this time is so close to potentially putting appreciable snows on the Eastern Shore and maybe some minor accumulations west of the Bay. But what I will point out is that a heavy half of the ensemble members place the low to the W/SW of the mean low which would up the possibilities.

 

Now one thing that we will be fighting initially are temps at the lower levels to the surface. As you can see below the 850's have quickly cleared our region (at 72 hours it resided in western MD) but what we had leading into it were surface temps in the upper 40's/lower 50s. So what we will need to see are decent rates to overcome this lower level warmth otherwise we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in which will be too late for the cause. 

 

There is something else I want to point out. A key player in this potential will be a front running low as it sets up the baroclinic zone for the trailing low that will intensify off the coast. What we have seen over the last day or two of runs is that the front running low has progressed southward as to where it is initiating off of roughly OV vs. off the Delmarva. As you can see the front running low track is now farther south then previous runs and has subsequently dragged the baroclinic zone southward as well. This does two things. First it is placing the trailing intensifying low farther south in a more favorable local for our region. What it is also doing is reducing the distance between the favorable 500's (closed low) trailing being the intensifying coastal so now we are seeing the low responding by lagging further behind. These are good things to see.

 

Now the GFS/GEFS is not on board at this time as the 500's just are not there. But we have seen a progression on it's part the last few runs to move towards a Euro type solution so do not be surprised if we start seeing favorable outcomes in the next day or so of runs.

As I said, I am now officially interested. Wouldn't take much in the way of adjustments to actually see a good outcome potentially for west of the Bay and in particular on the Eastern Shore. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Scandinavian ridging really beginning to flex and show some staying power on the GEFS. It actually looks to help keep a general 50/50 present most of the run. We take.

[showmethesnow]

06Z GFS continues it's move towards a Euro type solution for this weekend.

[poolz1]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

06Z GFS continues it's move towards a Euro type solution for this weekend.

06z Euro with another step in the right direction.  Stronger vort with a slightly stronger low close to the S NJ coastline.  Would be great to back our way into a minor event....maybe more than minor for places closer to coast...

[showmethesnow]

Not going to write a novel on it but our potential day 6 storm is still very much in play. Saw an uptick on the snow means from both the GEFS and the EPS for those that follow that.

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Euro suite officially has my interest for this weekend.

What we have seen generally run over run the last few days is that the trough pulling through the East is now taking on a nuetralish tilt compared to the positive tilt seen just a couple of days ago. We are also seeing better height builds/ridging in front of the trough which is helping to turn this trough. In response to this more favorable setup at 500's the low is responding as it lags further and further behind waiting for the 500's to catch up to it. Now this is hour 78 just after the 850's have cleared the bay. Note that the mean low is off the Jersey shores at this point. The look at this time is so close to potentially putting appreciable snows on the Eastern Shore and maybe some minor accumulations west of the Bay. But what I will point out is that a heavy half of the ensemble members place the low to the W/SW of the mean low which would up the possibilities.

 

Now one thing that we will be fighting initially are temps at the lower levels to the surface. As you can see below the 850's have quickly cleared our region (at 72 hours it resided in western MD) but what we had leading into it were surface temps in the upper 40's/lower 50s. So what we will need to see are decent rates to overcome this lower level warmth otherwise we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in which will be too late for the cause. 

 

There is something else I want to point out. A key player in this potential will be a front running low as it sets up the baroclinic zone for the trailing low that will intensify off the coast. What we have seen over the last day or two of runs is that the front running low has progressed southward as to where it is initiating off of roughly OV vs. off the Delmarva. As you can see the front running low track is now farther south then previous runs and has subsequently dragged the baroclinic zone southward as well. This does two things. First it is placing the trailing intensifying low farther south in a more favorable local for our region. What it is also doing is reducing the distance between the favorable 500's (closed low) trailing being the intensifying coastal so now we are seeing the low responding by lagging further behind. These are good things to see.

 

Now the GFS/GEFS is not on board at this time as the 500's just are not there. But we have seen a progression on it's part the last few runs to move towards a Euro type solution so do not be surprised if we start seeing favorable outcomes in the next day or so of runs.

As I said, I am now officially interested. Wouldn't take much in the way of adjustments to actually see a good outcome potentially for west of the Bay and in particular on the Eastern Shore. 

Certainly an intriguing setup looking at h5. As it stands probably some flakes in the air with some accumulations just NE of our region, but time for further adjustments. I cant get too excited because its progressive in nature and the lower level temps are mild leading in. 6z Euro would imply a period of moderate snow over DE, but a lot would have to go right for that occur.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

06z Euro with another step in the right direction.  Stronger vort with a slightly stronger low close to the S NJ coastline.  Would be great to back our way into a minor event....maybe more than minor for places closer to coast...

LOL. I keep forgetting we now have a 06Z Euro.

Several things I am seeing here. Seeing a slighter deeper drop of the trough. The trough is coming in quicker. Seeing better height builds in front of it. And the trough axis is rotating slightly quicker as to where we are almost on the verge of seeing a neg tilt as it runs through our region. Also the low continues to lag further and further behind.

Really starting to like the look the Euro is throwing us. It is getting very close to seeing a capture of the low somewhere off the upper Delmarva/S Jersey Shores.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. I keep forgetting we now have a 06Z Euro.

Several things I am seeing here. Seeing a slighter deeper drop of the trough. The trough is coming in quicker. Seeing better height builds in front of it. And the trough axis is rotating slightly quicker as to where we are almost on the verge of seeing a neg tilt as it runs through our region. Also the low continues to lag further and further behind.

Really starting to like the look the Euro is throwing us. It is getting very close to seeing a capture of the low somewhere off the upper Delmarva/S Jersey Shores.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

6z is all but negative tilted.  And not to mention 40- 50 mph wind gusts with some snow 

^982 mb off central NJ ...nice 

Getting a bit of a negative tilt would certainly help our cause. 

A nice NA block would help too lol. Be a different ballgame if we could slow things down some.

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Getting a bit of a negative tilt would certainly help our cause. 

A nice NA block would help too lol. Be a different ballgame if we could slow things down some.

I was just going to ask , does a system that is going toward a negative tilt slow down a bit? 

[showmethesnow]

 

32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. I keep forgetting we now have a 06Z Euro.

Several things I am seeing here. Seeing a slighter deeper drop of the trough. The trough is coming in quicker. Seeing better height builds in front of it. And the trough axis is rotating slightly quicker as to where we are almost on the verge of seeing a neg tilt as it runs through our region. Also the low continues to lag further and further behind.

Really starting to like the look the Euro is throwing us. It is getting very close to seeing a capture of the low somewhere off the upper Delmarva/S Jersey Shores.

 

Actually are seeing the beginnings of a capture at hour 78. Still just a touch too far off the coast for our needs through the DC/Balt region.

 

But.... See a capture at this point and we are good to go. Mind you this frame is only separated by 3 hours from the above. And as we continue to see the coastal low lag farther and farther behind as well as shifting southward this scenario is very much in play with the current trends we are seeing on the Euro. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles spit out on the snowfall maps. 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

@showmethesnow agree with you...decent 'potential' for an event especially Eastern points. Your analysis is on-point as always. Only thing with the Euro family, we saw some similar lead ups 3rd week November and 2nd week December events. I'm skeptical of the Euro. Might be doing it again where it is showing us best case scenario then will level off or even degrade slightly within 60 hours. Hoping the favorable trends continue but hesitant to go all in just yet. I could see some areas getting rain to fat wet flakes tho fo sho.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I was just going to ask , does a system that is going toward a negative tilt slow down a bit? 

Not necessarily. The negative tilt is associated with better dynamics in the mid/upper levels and a more rapid intensification of the surface low. Because the pattern is progressive, a more rapidly deepening low would give our region a better chance of getting some decent precip falling into the colder air, especially places further inland.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not necessarily. The negative tilt is associated with better dynamics in the mid/upper levels and a more rapid intensification of the surface low. Because the pattern is progressive, a more rapidly deepening low would give our region a better chance of getting some decent precip falling into the colder air, especially places further inland.

I might add something here if you don't mind. A neg tilt is more favorable (vs. a nuetral/positive tilt) for a capture of a surface low. So in a sense it can be more favorable for slowing the surface low down to where it does stall or even retrograde somewhat waiting for the 500s lagging behind.

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@showmethesnow agree with you...decent 'potential' for an event especially Eastern points. Your analysis is on-point as always. Only thing with the Euro family, we saw some similar lead ups 3rd week November and 2nd week December events. I'm skeptical of the Euro. Might be doing it again where it is showing us best case scenario then will level off or even degrade slightly within 60 hours. Hoping the favorable trends continue but hesitant to go all in just yet. I could see some areas getting rain to fat wet flakes tho fo sho.

Don't disagree with this at all. But with us staring down a pretty bleak looking extended and this being the only game in town (well besides our potential day 6 storm)...

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't disagree with this at all. But with us staring down a pretty bleak looking extended and this being the only game in town (well besides our potential day 6 storm)...

 

When do we double down? 12z? 

[frd]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I keep forgetting we now have a 06Z Euro.

@showmethesnow as you might have seen the 06Z EPS not agreeing with the OP. It have the primary to our NW although there are a few members with centers to our South and East. But the general cluster is Western PA and Western NY state. Maybe this will change to a degree with the afternoon run. 

 

[BristowWx]

47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I was just going to ask , does a system that is going toward a negative tilt slow down a bit? 

from a micro location perspective I would guess you and I need a significant shift SW to see something out of this.  capture off the NJ coast will give folks west of I95 windy and drying NW winds, chilly conditions...that is my considered opinion.  interesting none the less.  I am rooting for anyone in the sub to see snow of any kind now.   

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I might add something here if you don't mind. A neg tilt is more favorable (vs. a nuetral/positive tilt) for a capture of a surface low. So in a sense it can be more favorable for slowing the surface low down to where it does stall or even retrograde somewhat waiting for the 500s lagging behind.

Agree. In this case probably the best we can do is a neutral/slightly negative tilt. That would potentially provide some decent moisture advection into the cold air on the west side, and maybe get parts of our region under the deform band for a time. I think it is an outside shot at this point, but definitely worth watching. I would feel pretty good about chances for a few inches of snow if I were somewhere  in the northern half of NJ or NE PA.

[Wonderdog]

18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

from a micro location perspective I would guess you and I need a significant shift SW to see something out of this.  capture off the NJ coast will give folks west of I95 windy and drying NW winds, chilly conditions...that is my considered opinion.  interesting none the less.  I am rooting for anyone in the sub to see snow of any kind now.   

I'm heading to South Jersey on Saturday. I might have more luck up there. My goal is to see some flakes in a bad pattern! Maybe we'll look back at this weekend and see that it qualified as one of those surprises that happens every few years or so along the eastern seaboard. 

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnow as you might have seen the 06Z EPS not agreeing with the OP. It have the primary to our NW although there are a few members with centers to our South and East. But the general cluster is Western PA and Western NY state. Maybe this will change to a degree with the afternoon run. 

 

Thanks for letting me know. Really haven't been following the off runs of the Euro so am not sure how well they are doing verification wise. Still 3 days out so much can still change, especially considering when we are talking small nuances here and there can mean big differences with on the sensible weather we can expect through our region.

[showmethesnow]

34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree. In this case probably the best we can do is a neutral/slightly negative tilt. That would potentially provide some decent moisture advection into the cold air on the west side, and maybe get parts of our region under the deform band for a time. I think it is an outside shot at this point, but definitely worth watching. I would feel pretty good about chances for a few inches of snow if I were somewhere  in the northern half of NJ or NE PA.

Potential is here for a pretty good hammering for someone on the eastern seaboard but I would probably favor N Jersey up to Cape Cod at this time. Just hoping our region can get into the CCB somewhat before this storm pulls NEward.

[BristowWx]

33 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I'm heading to South Jersey on Saturday. I might have more luck up there. My goal is to see some flakes in a bad pattern! Maybe we'll look back at this weekend and see that it qualified as one of those surprises that happens every few years or so along the eastern seaboard. 

What exit?  Safe travels.  South Jersey place to be on this one...well pretty good anyway.  Like Bob said mangled events can occur.  

[Bosswx]

Woke up to see the euro has 5” for me. What a surprise. The last time we had backend snow a couple weeks ago. All models except Gfs had 6-12 for me on the backend and ended up with 1”. Hoping euro holds onto this one. If you are coming up here as of now would western Monmouth county would be best for most accumulations according to euro.