January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't have to worry about very interested... EPS says lol to the op. Actually degraded from 0z and that didn't look good already. Still a cluster that says maybe but I was expecting a more promising run. 

Yes, you and Anthony on the same page. 

Using the reliable AO and PNA indicators this was expected in my opinion. Sure, a small chance we could have worked into a failed period or set-up but the stats that Donald S and Wes posted a while ago are remarkable.  I mentioned a few days ago that without a favorable AO or PNA the threats would dissipate, or degrade.  Since then they have. We will have to wait until the NAM state changes, and that will be a while.  

 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a screwy progression. There's a partial transfer right overhead that cuts off the waa precip. It could be right but what if there was no partial transfer we would have had 3-6" region wide before dryslot. If the shortwave accidentally tracks under us it's a warning event. 

Pattern obviously favors a crappy track but we have a knack for sneaking something in nearly every year. Very interested in the EPS. If there's a sig jump in good solutions I'll get very interested

That Euro skip is hilarious tho

[peribonca]

18z gfs almost gets it done on day 6. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill if these run over run trends continue  we could have a decent pattern by Feb. 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill if these run over run trends continue  we could have a decent pattern by Feb. 

this feels like a 2007-08 type winter. Dec torch..jan torch......

[frd]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

if these run over run trends continue  we could have a decent pattern by Feb. 

Seems to be following the CFSv2 - used for trends only of course.

Possibly the current CFSv2 outlook is based on the modeling seeing colder outcomes late in the month. 

Trends..... 

 

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman I do see a realistic way out within the next 2 weeks. 18z gfs op shows the process in motion. All ens agree that a very cold arctic airmass is going to get displaced into the conus out west d10-15. That will move east. Modified but still cold. Once that happens we could get a reshufffle and the atl starts fighting back.

Gefs is building the scand ridge and that could be important as things shuffle around.

The atl might flex and start pushing back against the -pna. That's the fast way out. The other way is for the nasty AK ridge to roll forward (or retro) and start shoving things. That seems like a long way down the line but I really don't expect the Pac to stay ugly through Feb. We'll see a +pna period before the end of Feb imo. Too far away to discuss

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

this feels like a 2007-08 type winter. Dec torch..jan torch......

I don't think Jan will torch door to door. Second half can easily flip. Maybe not flip to sweet but it's very unlikely the pna stays strongly negative all month.  Next couple weeks look rough but we're also in the time of year where we need the least amount of things to go right. Maybe choas sends us a cookie.

Unfortunately this year is the more common way winter goes in these parts. Sucks every time it happens but it's the opposite of unusual. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think Jan will torch door to door. Second half can easily flip. Maybe not flip to sweet but it's very unlikely the pna stays strongly negative all month.  Next couple weeks look rough but we're also in the time of year where we need the least amount of things to go right. Maybe choas sends us a cookie.

Unfortunately this year is the more common way winter goes in these parts. Sucks every time it happens but it's the opposite of unusual. 

If more people in our region were accepting of this/understood climo, there would be much less hand wringing when the guidance advertises a "bad" pattern. Even so-called epic patterns often result in nothing of consequence in these parts.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman I do see a realistic way out within the next 2 weeks. 18z gfs op shows the process in motion. All ens agree that a very cold arctic airmass is going to get displaced into the conus out west d10-15. That will move east. Modified but still cold. Once that happens we could get a reshufffle and the atl starts fighting back.

Gefs is building the scand ridge and that could be important as things shuffle around.

The atl might flex and start pushing back against the -pna. That's the fast way out. The other way is for the nasty AK ridge to roll forward (or retro) and start shoving things. That seems like a long way down the line but I really don't expect the Pac to stay ugly through Feb. We'll see a +pna period before the end of Feb imo. Too far away to discuss

We definitely agree on the ways out. I wish I had confidence with that Feb assessment though. The 4 top pattern analogs right now that keep showing up in the day 8 and 11 ensembles are 1952, 1989, 2002, and 2008.  They all pretty much sucked wall to wall. Plus the other years I found skimming every January with a similar h5 look to what guidance is hammering were all a horror show straight through to March also.  

Im not saying I’m sold we don’t recover.  I don’t have the answers. Anything can happen. The one comp year that did flip better, 2006, is in the analogs too so there is that. And you know in past years that started bad I’ve stayed optimistic and preached things might turn.  But looking at what has happened in past years when January looked like this gives me no confidence February is any better. This look is the one our complete dumpster fire fail years are made of. 

Even so we will have threats regardless. Flukes. Maybe we get a Hudson Bay ridge for a time. Those can make something work in an otherwise shite pattern.  A trailing wave. We might get lucky. And records are made to be broken. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

@Bob Chill, @psuhoffman, @C.A.P.E. do any of you see the possibility of this pattern actually retrograding as opposed to progressing? Seems that a small few hundred mile retrogression of that central pac ridge would put us in a decent place in the pac side of things

[Rhino16]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If more people in our region were accepting of this/understood climo, there would be much less hand wringing when the guidance advertises a "bad" pattern. Even so-called epic patterns often result in nothing of consequence in these parts.

It’s just so hard to remember the crappy years, because it seems like it snows every year. For me, it feels like there’s some pressure to come at least close to the previous year, even though I know it’s not possible every time. I also just don’t want to go to class, which is counterintuitive because I really want to do this for a living...

[NorthArlington101]

ICON really cranks the low on the 4th/5th. Almost certainly out of the reach of anyone but the NEMD/Delaware people, but an interesting result anyways.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We definitely agree on the ways out. I wish I had confidence with that Feb assessment though. The 4 top pattern analogs right now that keep showing up in the day 8 and 11 ensembles are 1952, 1989, 2002, and 2008.  They all pretty much sucked wall to wall. Plus the other years I found skimming every January with a similar h5 look to what guidance is hammering were all a horror show straight through to March also.  

My gut is telling me Feb is going to feature a -epo in general and maybe it builds before Jan is over. Same with the pna... I believe Feb will have a +pna in general. Not looking like the atl is going to have stable blocking so I'm not excited about Feb or think it will be a memorable month. At the same time I don't think Feb will be a disaster like the pattern that set in since the week before Christmas and appears to want to continue for at least 2 more weeks. 

I've conceded that this isn't going to be a memorable winter so any event that requires a shovel will be celebrated. 

[RDM]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

@Bob Chill, @psuhoffman, @C.A.P.E. do any of you see the possibility of this pattern actually retrograding as opposed to progressing? Seems that a small few hundred mile retrogression of that central pac ridge would put us in a decent place in the pac side of things

Been wondering the same thing.  Many of the recent events since early Dec that went N of us did so in a way we were 2-300 miles from the action.  (which is a world away, I know).  Realize from I-81 N and W there's another entire climate at play, especially from mid-PA N in latitude.  But in some cases one could see if the setup of the ridges and troughs over the Pac and CONUS was shifted some we could be closer to at least in the game (assuming also the WAR stays out of play).  Perhaps wishful thinking here, but the boundary has often been in eastern Ohio diagonally down through western KY and SRN MO.  My relatives in SW Ohio have already had multiple 4"+ events, which is a bit rare for them this early.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

@Bob Chill, @psuhoffman, @C.A.P.E. do any of you see the possibility of this pattern actually retrograding as opposed to progressing? Seems that a small few hundred mile retrogression of that central pac ridge would put us in a decent place in the pac side of things

Anywhere but there is better. If the NAO tanks retrogression is more likely. If not progression. Either is better than where it is projected now. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z EURO looks more like the ICON... I'll be curious to see the ens.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My gut is telling me Feb is going to feature a -epo in general and maybe it builds before Jan is over. Same with the pna... I believe Feb will have a +pna in general. Not looking like the atl is going to have stable blocking so I'm not excited about Feb or think it will be a memorable month. At the same time I don't think Feb will be a disaster like the pattern that set in since the week before Christmas and appears to want to continue for at least 2 more weeks. 

I've conceded that this isn't going to be a memorable winter so any event that requires a shovel will be celebrated. 

If we get an epo ridge with a +NAM we actually want a -PNA. Get the epo to ridge over the top of the pna trough and get an elongated positively tilted trough and we can score waves. A big full latitude western ridge with a +NAM is just cold and dry. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

@Bob Chill, @psuhoffman, @C.A.P.E. do any of you see the possibility of this pattern actually retrograding as opposed to progressing? Seems that a small few hundred mile retrogression of that central pac ridge would put us in a decent place in the pac side of things

This may be an oversimplification, but the key to me on the PAC side, however it actually ends up evolving from from 'bad' to 'good', is a shift in the tropical forcing away from the MC and towards the dateline.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My gut is telling me Feb is going to feature a -epo in general and maybe it builds before Jan is over. Same with the pna... I believe Feb will have a +pna in general. Not looking like the atl is going to have stable blocking so I'm not excited about Feb or think it will be a memorable month. At the same time I don't think Feb will be a disaster like the pattern that set in since the week before Christmas and appears to want to continue for at least 2 more weeks. 

I've conceded that this isn't going to be a memorable winter so any event that requires a shovel will be celebrated. 

If we get a -epo and a +pna we will get some decent winter events. I have no doubt about that

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

This may be an oversimplification, but the key to me on the PAC side, however it actually ends up evolving from from 'bad' to 'good', is a shift in the tropical forcing away from the MC and towards the dateline.

It’s not oversimplified at all.  The strong convection there will feed the central pac ridge which feeds the full latitude western trough which pumps the eastern ridge.   We fought this last year too.  

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get an epo ridge with a +NAM we actually want a -PNA. Get the epo to ridge over the top of the pna trough and get an elongated positively tilted trough and we can score waves. A big full latitude western ridge with a +NAM is just cold and dry. 

What is an NAM?

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s not oversimplified at all.  The strong convection there will feed the central pac ridge which feeds the full latitude western trough which pumps the eastern ridge.   We fought this last year too.  

 

Yes. How could we possibly forget, lol. Given the different ENSO state heading into winter, who woulda thunk we could end up with the same result. Hopefully we wont.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we get a -epo and a +pna we will get some decent winter events. I have no doubt about that

That's what I was trying to say. Not that we get a coupled epo/pna combo that locks in for weeks. Just that embedded in progressive flow will be periods where the pna and/or epo will cooperate more often than be hostile. Still need choas and luck and all that stuff. And we all know what to expect with progressive flow because we've been dealing with it nearly every winter since Jan 2011. Lol

 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What is an NAM?

AO 

[frd]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not oversimplified at all.  The strong convection there will feed the central pac ridge which feeds the full latitude western trough which pumps the eastern ridge.   We fought this last year too.  

 

Rather frustrating if you ask me. Many weather pros and mets are frustrated as well. 

I know this has been brought up before, as a matter of fact I think Don S brought this up a couple days ago about the warming of the "warm pool "and the recent research which suggests the effects are promoting, high amplitude warm phases, over cold phases and the passage of the colder phase being faster versus the warm phases. For those of you who might state well what about earlier this Fall when we did spend more  time in the colder phases, well I am talking about a longer period of time, and when that time periods occurs.    

To me the MJO favoring warmer phases also seems to be happening more so in the beginning  of winter, as it did last year at this time. I am referring to the later part of December and in January. 

Another interesting observation comes form HM, he mentioned recently that  the warming of the "warm pool "may be over time effecting the wave train over North America in the time period from November to the first half of January. ( The cool part here ,as you will read below, HM is proposing two effects - the first a early season cold delivery via the -EPO and then warming from a shift in OLR in the IO- Maritime. 

HM also mentioned that the poleward heat transport is most receptive in Autumn, and hence it sets off the wave train which at that time promotes a favored - EPO. ( Now HM did not mention this but I also think there is some November influence from the mentioned wave train and acting upon  the early season Siberian High, descending NH snow cover, etc  in developing a early -NAM state. - like this year ) 

HM mentions this really cool idea that by late December the annual cycle redistributes probabilities through the tropics and then heightens the strongest -OLR that are in the IO - Maritime. I believe HM has something here.  Many of the words I used above are right form HM's feed so all credit to him.

I guess now the question becomes do we move forward from this cycle to a new one late in January and through February. There are some indications we do,  but to what degree in terms of favoring sustained cold and snow I am not sure.    

On a side note, there are some interesting trends this past decade regarding longer summers and sometimes late season blocking developing at the end of winters. The absence of sustained - NAO is one as well, the late December warm-ups is another. 

Here is the referencing post from HM that I focused on.

 

 

     

 

[donsutherland1]

Today's AO value of +3.653 was the highest such figure since December 23, 2016. Unfortunately, it was timed for January, not some month outside of winter. Moreover, since January 1950, there are only 8 prior cases where the AO reached +3.500 or above in the January 1-10 timeframe. Five of those cases went on to have a predominantly positive AO in February. 1976 was one such case. Three, however, saw a predominantly negative AO. One such case was 1983. 

Perhaps, because of the "sacrifice" that has been made, something closer to 1983 will play out. Hopefully, once the MJO departs from the Maritime Continent, its travel plans will exclude any quick returns there.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's AO value of +3.653 was the highest such figure since December 23, 2016. Unfortunately, it was timed for January, not some month outside of winter. Moreover, since January 1950, there are only 8 prior cases where the AO reached +3.500 or above in the January 1-10 timeframe. Five of those cases went on to have a predominantly positive AO in February. 1976 was one such case. Three, however, saw a predominantly negative AO. One such case was 1983. 

Perhaps, because of the "sacrifice" that has been made, something closer to 1983 will play out. Hopefully, once the MJO departs from the Maritime Continent, its travel plans will exclude any quick returns there.

Thanks Don.  I am curious, do you feel it is likely that the ++++AO is linked to the central pacific ridge, or is it just bad timing of two unfavorable features.  I mean I know that everything is connected on some level in weather I am just curious if they are just two manifestations of the same underlying phenomenon.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's AO value of +3.653 was the highest such figure since December 23, 2016. Unfortunately, it was timed for January, not some month outside of winter. Moreover, since January 1950, there are only 8 prior cases where the AO reached +3.500 or above in the January 1-10 timeframe. Five of those cases went on to have a predominantly positive AO in February. 1976 was one such case. Three, however, saw a predominantly negative AO. One such case was 1983. 

Perhaps, because of the "sacrifice" that has been made, something closer to 1983 will play out. Hopefully, once the MJO departs from the Maritime Continent, its travel plans will exclude any quick returns there.

I'm about ready to sacrifice something to the weather gods.....

At least based on the stats you shared, we have around a 40% chance of a -AO, and the AO has been responsible for some decent stretches of winter so theres that.......

While unfortunate that we will likely lose some of Jan, if we can come around in what is typically the easiest month for it to snow, we'd all take a normal to rockin Feb.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Thanks Don.  I am curious, do you feel it is likely that the ++++AO is linked to the central pacific ridge, or is it just bad timing of two unfavorable features.  I mean I know that everything is connected on some level in weather I am just curious if they are just two manifestations of the same underlying phenomenon.

I believe there is a relationship. I am not aware of literature demonstrating that they are manifestations of a larger phenomenon.