psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too Feb 24 1989 I think. Not sure why it busted. But it didn’t bust by that much it simply had a sharp back edge. Atlantic City had 19”. Cape May 24”. But where I was 35 miles NW of there nothing. Philly was always on the back edge because I remember the night before the forecast was 1-3 NW of the city. 4-8 in Philly. 8-14 SE and 12-18 at the shore. The back edge ended up with a tighter gradient and maybe 20-30 miles east of expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Link to the weekly MJO write-up from the CPC. Nothing surprising. Need to root for the GEFS (I hate saying that). EPS takes it absolutely apesh!t into the bad phases. Jeeze where have I seen that before. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Smh Euro phases and has a huge cutter. Take the average. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I took the day off. Just looked at the 240 Hr EPS. Pacific Doom Blob even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I took the day off. Just looked at the 240 Hr EPS. Pacific Doom Blob even stronger. Save yourself the heartache and mentally write off 10-17 Jan. Hope for MLK miracle changes. That ridge is taking an extended vacation. It will leave at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We can only hope the LR GEFS is sniffing out some light at the end of this dreaded tunnel. For the 5th or 6th run in a row is slowly nosing the central Pac ridge up into the EPO region and now showing ridging trying to extend across the pole and over into Scandinavia with a weaker SE Ridge reflection as well. Signs of the 50/50 returning. Isnt ideal, isnt perfect, and yes it is way out in fantasy land but trying to find something....anything. Haven't seen the EPS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Euro/EPS are trying their hardest to make this weekend somewhat interesting especially towards the northern shores and northward. Great closed low vort pass. Seeing a run over run move towards a more nuetralish axis tilt of the trough it is embedded in. Signs of ridging starting to show on the front side of the trough vs the mostly flat flow on previous runs. And the latest run shows the low pressure is now somewhat responding to the more favorable 500's trailing behind it as we now see the low lagging behind somewhat. Won't hold my breath for anything more then maybe some snow showers but it is worth keeping an eye on this considering we still have roughly 4 days to iron out the details. As far as our potential day 7 storm? As far as I am concerned all options are still on the table. Anywhere from a cutter to Chicago to a suppressed and progressive storm OTS. This is pretty much reflected on the EPS members as they have solutions across the board. Might be something the models don't get a handle on for a couple of days as the try to figure out where and what they want to do with all the NS energy diving down and the interaction with the PAC energy running underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We can only hope: Eta:GEFS has a more smoothed over -AO look but the signal is there at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We can only hope: Eta:GEFS has a more smoothed over -AO look but the signal is there at least. Not sure I see that signal. -AO perhaps but no mechanism to bring that cold to EC. WPAC ridge remains strong on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 29 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Not sure I see that signal. -AO perhaps but no mechanism to bring that cold to EC. WPAC ridge remains strong on this Only conjecture at this range and who's to say the GEFS are right...but the colder 850 anomalies are sliding East at the end of the run. It is a faint light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 Would have expected us to be solidly in the AN vs equal chances for BN/AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: Would have expected us to be solidly in the AN vs equal chances for BN/AN. My guess is they are giving too much weight to the CFS. Very little uncertainty on the GEFS and EPS wrt to EPO ridge position and the resulting SE ridge having some staying power. That probability map would make more sense for the MA and NE if there were clear signs of a NA block developing. eta- I should have said higher or significant weight to the CFS.. "Too much" is more subjective, and based on my opinion that it's a pretty crappy model in general to use for weeks 3-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Only conjecture at this range and who's to say the GEFS are right...but the colder 850 anomalies are sliding East at the end of the run. It is a faint light at the end of the tunnel. Yes, we can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Feb 24 1989 I think. Not sure why it busted. But it didn’t bust by that much it simply had a sharp back edge. Atlantic City had 19”. Cape May 24”. But where I was 35 miles NW of there nothing. Philly was always on the back edge because I remember the night before the forecast was 1-3 NW of the city. 4-8 in Philly. 8-14 SE and 12-18 at the shore. The back edge ended up with a tighter gradient and maybe 20-30 miles east of expected. Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 AO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfif 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 GFS looks good .... if you want to party like it’s 1990. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting. It was actually a trifecta of busts over a month that got me about as bent out of shape as I’ve ever been over snow. I was living in South Jersey at the time. We had several straight really god awful snowless winter with nothing more than minor events and numerous bad busts (like feb 89) in the mix. I don’t know what happened/went wrong and I was too young to follow models yet but I remember each vividly. The first was a west to east system that was forecasted to be 4-8” then some sleet. It snowed for 20 mins before going to sleet then freezing rain. Got about an inch of sleet and ice. The second was a hybrid miller A/B that was supposed to be 6-10” then the day of they lowered it to 4-8 then 3-6. Should have known then. That evening we got about 1” of snow. Woke up the next morning to bare ground and driving rain that lasted all day. Ended up really warm too. Like 50 at least. They really blew that one. I think it didn’t transfer soon enough and ended up more a cutter than expected Last one was another west to east storm predicted to be 4-8” and we got about an hour of heavy snow that went to rain. Snow ended up NW of predicted. The last one was towards the end of winter and I was wrecked emotionally. ETA: I do think there was one good snow in 90 or 91 maybe and I missed it because we went on a family vacation to Maui for a week. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS looks good .... if you want to party like it’s 1990. man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, usedtobe said: AO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfif 17.62 kB · 6 downloads Thanks Wes. I found similar results with my 5”+ BWI snowfall study. It seems if we are in a -NAM state the PNA becomes less crucial. But if the AO is + we need either a perfect EPO ridge or PNA ridge to have much of a chance. I found the NAO numerical index to be misleading sometimes. Often a snow event followed the NAO blocking. If you look at the time of the event the NAO was neutral or positive but several days prior had been a nice blocking episode. Also some west based blocking (great for our purposes but not a canonical NAO) or Hudson Bay blocks were hidden in the numerical index if the east NAO domain had a trough or there was a ridge near the Azores. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Surface sucks but mids are ok. NW crew could have a wintry period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Lol- euro speeds up the shortwave on the 7th so the column is good even with a west track but the transfer still figures out how to skip over us with the waa shield. I do like the progression though. It would be an event regardless of the verbatim solution. Still plenty of leeway for a good track too. If the storm becomes a legit threat we should call it the lemonade storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- euro speeds up the shortwave on the 7th so the column is good even with a west track but the transfer still figures out how to skip over us with the waa shield. I do like the progression though. It would be an event regardless of the verbatim solution. Still plenty of leeway for a good track too. If the storm becomes a legit threat we should call it the lemonade storm Lemonade 2020, let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Verbatim 1-3" n+w for day 6 threat It's a screwy progression. There's a partial transfer right overhead that cuts off the waa precip. It could be right but what if there was no partial transfer we would have had 3-6" region wide before dryslot. If the shortwave accidentally tracks under us it's a warning event. Pattern obviously favors a crappy track but we have a knack for sneaking something in nearly every year. Very interested in the EPS. If there's a sig jump in good solutions I'll get very interested 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a screwy progression. There's a partial transfer right overhead that cuts off the waa precip. It could be right but what if there was no partial transfer we would have had 3-6" region wide before dryslot. If the shortwave accidentally tracks under us it's a warning event. Pattern obviously favors a crappy track but we have a knack for sneaking something in nearly every year. Very interested in the EPS. If there's a sig jump in good solutions I'll get very interested I like this wording. So you are interested....borderline 'very' interested. What is level 3 after 'very'? Asking for a comrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- euro speeds up the shortwave on the 7th so the column is good even with a west track but the transfer still figures out how to skip over us with the waa shield. I do like the progression though. It would be an event regardless of the verbatim solution. Still plenty of leeway for a good track too. If the storm becomes a legit threat we should call it the lemonade storm I agree with all of this. Only thing of note I dont like which I didnt see mentioned is the LP near Lake Superior. You know those GL lows love to mess with us. Column is good enough tho as u said to at least start as snow. I just have a thing for lp near the Lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I like this wording. So you are interested....borderline 'very' interested. What is level 3 after 'very'? Asking for a comrade. Lol- "very interested" = starting to beleive we actually have a legit chance. Next step is "all in" and the step after that is a face slap of reality and rain. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- "very interested" = starting to beleive we actually have a legit chance. Next step is "all in" and the step after that is a face slap of reality and rain. Don't have to worry about very interested... EPS says lol to the op. Actually degraded from 0z and that didn't look good already. Still a cluster that says maybe but I was expecting a more promising run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- "very interested" = starting to beleive we actually have a legit chance. Next step is "all in" and the step after that is a face slap of reality and rain. No. This is the next step ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- euro speeds up the shortwave on the 7th so the column is good even with a west track but the transfer still figures out how to skip over us with the waa shield. I do like the progression though. It would be an event regardless of the verbatim solution. Still plenty of leeway for a good track too. If the storm becomes a legit threat we should call it the lemonade storm Is there any significance to the squiggly isobars to the SE of the lp when it is located in WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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