January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy crap, I thought I was the doom and gloom one.... 

Well, the talk of the expanding Pacific warm pool skewing the MJO to the warm phases has me spooked.  But enough about that in this thread.

[psuhoffman]

I added this profile in the snow climo thread but I think it belongs here too.  This is the composite of all PNA Ridge induced snowfalls with a +EPO/+AO/+NAO. 

The look next week is "close" enough to this on the ensembles right now that it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility we sneak an event in before the coming end of winter forever pattern.    6 storms over 72 years inst exactly a high probability...but its something.  

[Eduardo]

Hugging that Scandinavia ridge showing up on the 288hr op GFS.  Pretty much all I’ve got given the doom and gloom on here today.

 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Hugging that Scandinavia ridge showing up on the 288hr op GFS.  Pretty much all I’ve got given the doom and gloom on here today.

 

As anomalous and stable as the PAC ridge looks on the means in the LR, we are pretty much relegated to watching the HL region on the Atlantic side for some help. It's likely just the usual end of run smoothing, but the 0z EPS seems to weaken the anomalously low h5 heights over GL with the TPV moving west a bit, and is also hinting at ridging from Scandinavia expanding into that region. Looking for signs of life..

[showmethesnow]

The potential for day 7/8 is still on the table. I wouldn't exactly call it a thread the needle type deal but we do need to see several things to occur for this to possibly work out.

Below is the vort map of the EPS at day 7 to get an idea of the players on the field. What we are seeing is NS energy rotating through NE which will become out transient 50/50 as there is no blocking in place (-NAO). In the central US we see PAC energy which is rotating down and underneath the NS to it's north. Just above that we see NS energy diving down on the backside of the PAC energy. This is actually a pretty good look at this time and I would take my chances with this  even though I would probably prefer a little more separation between the developing 50/50 and the trailing PAC and NS energy. If you move this forward what we see occur is a phasing of the NS energy and the PAC to our SW. At this time though everything is just a little north of where we would probably like it. Taken verbatim it is probably suggestive of a possibility of a period of snow on the front end before we flip to rain as the developing low would pass just to our N and W and this is reflected on the snow maps which favor snow to the north and west. What we are seeing here is damn close to a winning scenario.

 

Now we have the 500's 12 hours later with a look I had hoped that we would see eventually morph from just a few days ago when it showed the broad NS trough over the central and eastern N tier of the CONUS. Again, this is a pretty good look though probably just a touch too far north/west with where we would probably prefer the phasing occur. 

Now first off, no 50/50 and we can probably call it quits. Or even if we see it wash out too soon as what yesterdays overnight EPS was suggesting is also not so good. It is the key thing driving the potential here. Above we see it is backing the flow somewhat so that we are seeing the beginnings of height builds between the two systems. These height builds are important to create a deeper drop and a quicker turning of the trough to our west. With a transient low we also need to look for the timing and the separation between these two features and at this time we are looking at a fairly small window. But there is one thing I will point out and that is we are seeing some height builds above the 50/50. This could come into play as it could potentially create a pseudo block for that 50/50 feature opening up a larger window to get the desired separation/timing we need between the two systems. Also note that we are seeing ridging building in the west. This is important as well as it is diverting the trailing NS energy in Canada farther east before it begins phasing with the PAC energy. If that ridging is slower to build we see the phasing occurring farther to the west (overnight Euro had this scenario) and we end up with congrats Chicago. One last thing, we do not want to see NS energy cutting in between the 50/50 and the phasing as it will more then likely result in a suppressed and progressive system as we saw with the overnight GFS.

 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As anomalous and stable as the PAC ridge looks on the means in the LR, we are pretty much relegated to watching the HL region on the Atlantic side for some help. It's likely just the usual end of run smoothing, but the 0z EPS seems to weaken the anomalously low h5 heights over GL with the TPV moving west a bit, and is also hinting at ridging from Scandinavia expanding into that region. Looking for signs of life..

I am seeing a small glimmer of hope. I mentioned the other day that I thought the ensembles were suggesting the possibility of shifting the western trough (mid-upper latitude portion) farther to the east towards the Plains. Not that is such a big deal when looking at the whole picture but it does offer a little more hope for us to get some table scraps if we can see the SE ridging morph to more a WAR look. But beggars can't be choosers.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As anomalous and stable as the PAC ridge looks on the means in the LR, we are pretty much relegated to watching the HL region on the Atlantic side for some help. It's likely just the usual end of run smoothing, but the 0z EPS seems to weaken the anomalously low h5 heights over GL with the TPV moving west a bit, and is also hinting at ridging from Scandinavia expanding into that region. Looking for signs of life..

Towards the end of the GEFS way out in fantasy land the W displaced EPO ridge is trying to build and nose closer to the AO region fwiw. Not the Atl side you mentioned but maybe a needle in a haystack positive coming out of that Pac ridge anyway. 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The potential for day 7/8 is still on the table. I wouldn't exactly call it a thread the needle type deal but we do need to see several things to occur for this to possibly work out.

Below is the vort map of the EPS at day 7 to get an idea of the players on the field. What we are seeing is NS energy rotating through NE which will become out transient 50/50 as there is no blocking in place (-NAO). In the central US we see PAC energy which is rotating down and underneath the NS to it's north. Just above that we see NS energy diving down on the backside of the PAC energy. This is actually a pretty good look at this time and I would take my chances with this  even though I would probably prefer a little more separation between the developing 50/50 and the trailing PAC and NS energy. If you move this forward what we see occur is a phasing of the NS energy and the PAC to our SW. At this time though everything is just a little north of where we would probably like it. Taken verbatim it is probably suggestive of a possibility of a period of snow on the front end before we flip to rain as the developing low would pass just to our N and W and this is reflected on the snow maps which favor snow to the north and west. What we are seeing here is damn close to a winning scenario.

 

Now we have the 500's 12 hours later with a look I had hoped that we would see eventually morph from just a few days ago when it showed the broad NS trough over the central and eastern N tier of the CONUS. Again, this is a pretty good look though probably just a touch too far north/west with where we would probably prefer the phasing occur. 

Now first off, no 50/50 and we can probably call it quits. Or even if we see it wash out too soon as what yesterdays overnight EPS was suggesting is also not so good. It is the key thing driving the potential here. Above we see it is backing the flow somewhat so that we are seeing the beginnings of height builds between the two systems. These height builds are important to create a deeper drop and a quicker turning of the trough to our west. With a transient low we also need to look for the timing and the separation between these two features and at this time we are looking at a fairly small window. But there is one thing I will point out and that is we are seeing some height builds above the 50/50. This could come into play as it could potentially create a pseudo block for that 50/50 feature opening up a larger window to get the desired separation/timing we need between the two systems. Also note that we are seeing ridging building in the west. This is important as well as it is diverting the trailing NS energy in Canada farther east before it begins phasing with the PAC energy. If that ridging is slower to build we see the phasing occurring farther to the west (overnight Euro had this scenario) and we end up with congrats Chicago. One last thing, we do not want to see NS energy cutting in between the 50/50 and the phasing as it will more then likely result in a suppressed and progressive system as we saw with the overnight GFS.

 

Question. If the same conditions that you have elaborated on now exists in three weeks, would we have a better shot at snow due to being deeper in winter?

[PDIII]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Now that I am home with the data in front of me...I will answer this...but its gonna hurt.

 

It is hard to argue the logic and analysis here.. but that ridge out in the pacific will break down and the pattern will flip.. and given this all nonsense started a in mid December we will probably enter in to a period with better odds for snow somewhere in February/ March... and thats usually what we see anyways.. 

I am not worried. I will enjoy jogging outside the next couple of weeks.

[snowfan]

Time to dig out the sunscreen and beach gear for the week of 10th. Fugly. 

I mentioned to ian yesterday on twitter that DCA hasnt had AOA december snowfall in a decade, but would be nice to see something, anything remotely promising on the horizon.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I am seeing a small glimmer of hope. I mentioned the other day that I thought the ensembles were suggesting the possibility of shifting the western trough (mid-upper latitude portion) farther to the east towards the Plains. Not that is such a big deal when looking at the whole picture but it does offer a little more hope for us to get some table scraps if we can see the SE ridging morph to more a WAR look. But beggars can't be choosers.

 

50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Towards the end of the GEFS way out in fantasy land the W displaced EPO ridge is trying to build and nose closer to the AO region fwiw. Not the Atl side you mentioned but maybe a needle in a haystack positive coming out of that Pac ridge anyway. 

 

Yeah maybe this is something to watch. 6z GEFS looks a bit better than 0z, so maybe a bit of a trend. Mean trough is broader and extends further east, with the EC ridge pushing more into the W Atlantic.

[anotherman]

If there is a silver lining in all this, I would think it’s all the refreezing that is happening in the arctic as a result of how strong the PV is. Of course, selfishly, I want cold and snow here, but I would think a strong PV is healthy for the planet.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

 

Yeah maybe this is something to watch. 6z GEFS looks a bit better than 0z, so maybe a bit of a trend. Mean trough is broader and extends further east, with the EC ridge pushing more into the W Atlantic.

Looks more shortwave than longwave in that. The Pac ridge still supports the mean trough axis along or even just west of the west coast. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks more shortwave than longwave in that. The Pac ridge still supports the mean trough axis along or even just west of the west coast. 

If you look at the 5 day mean in the extended you can see a somewhat notable shift eastward with the trough in the west over the last couple of days. And while I agree with you that the EPO positioning would suggest a more western posture from the trough I question if the fact that the ridging is broader and not so much amplified  is the reason we are seeing this eastward shift.

[showmethesnow]

52 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Question. If the same conditions that you have elaborated on now exists in three weeks, would we have a better shot at snow due to being deeper in winter?

Probably not. We are pretty much entering into prime climo as far as temps now so I don't think there would be that much difference in that regard. And if you are referring to wavelengths and their spacing they should be somewhat similar 3 weeks down the road as well. Maybe I am missing something but as far as I can guess we would probably be talking similar results.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Hugging that Scandinavia ridge showing up on the 288hr op GFS.  Pretty much all I’ve got given the doom and gloom on here today.

 

 

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As anomalous and stable as the PAC ridge looks on the means in the LR, we are pretty much relegated to watching the HL region on the Atlantic side for some help. It's likely just the usual end of run smoothing, but the 0z EPS seems to weaken the anomalously low h5 heights over GL with the TPV moving west a bit, and is also hinting at ridging from Scandinavia expanding into that region. Looking for signs of life..

It’s a long shot but get that Scandinavia ridge a little west (needs to retrograde to where it’s poking into Iceland) and working in conjunction with a monster 50/50 and it can work. There was one snowstorm in the dataset of central pac ridge snows that looked like that. Most had a west based NAO block though. But that kind of Scand ridge can be a precursor to NAO blocking. As you said it’s all we got. It’s really our only way out of this mess. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It’s a long shot but get that Scandinavia ridge a little west (needs to retrograde to where it’s poking into Iceland) and working in conjunction with a monster 50/50 and it can work. There was one snowstorm in the dataset of central pac ridge snows that looked like that. Most had a west based NAO block though. But that kind of Scand ridge can be a precursor to NAO blocking. As you said it’s all we got. It’s really our only way out of this mess. 

That’s what I’ve been paying attention to as well since (thanks to your research thread) and remembering something Wes (I think) talked about a few years ago, Scand ridges generally predict more favorable patterns for us even with a crap Pacific.  

[mempho]

If there is a silver lining in all this, I would think it’s all the refreezing that is happening in the arctic as a result of how strong the PV is. Of course, selfishly, I want cold and snow here, but I would think a strong PV is healthy for the planet.

Strong PV= Cold spring =good for spring marathons

BUT

Does not equal "good for the planet"


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Solution Man]

Forecast hour 132 of the 12z GFS cracks me up as what it depicts to the DMV

[nw baltimore wx]

Not surprising, but the gfs is looking much different for the middle of next week. Pesky GL low is weaker and something trying to brew along front near the Gulf.

[Baltimorewx]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Not surprising, but the gfs is looking much different for the middle of next week. Pesky GL low is weaker and something trying to brew along front near the Gulf.

Yeah, maybe a nice sign, but id imagine that pesky low is still going to wreak havoc on the surface temps but lets get a storm and let the chips fall

[Maestrobjwa]

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

but imo the north pac SST, atlantic SST, QBO phase, solar,  and enso (weak warm following a nino) all argued for blocking this year.   

In regards to the solar...it's possible this winter further makes the argument for the lag period between the minimum and any blocking benefits we get from it (as we were discussing a couple months ago. Doesn't seem like the lag period is always a given--we certainly benefited in 1986-87 and 1995-96, lol). If we only reached the minimum THIS year and not last, it could be that we don't feel that until next winter...(and even then it may not be guaranteed--although in our more recent decades, we have benefited from the previous 4 solar mins. It seems like the one in May 1976 may have lagged for a year resulting in the 1977-78 winter. Connection?)

[BristowWx]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, maybe a nice sign, but id imagine that pesky low is still going to wreak havoc on the surface temps but lets get a storm and let the chips fall

Maybe it will help draw it north.  Big game hunting but only seeing squirrels. 

[Baltimorewx]

big time storm at 336 but it cuts west lol imagine that

[MJO812]

Alot of people including meteorologists  are on board with a pattern change at the end of this month to a wintry one.

[Wonderdog]

52 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe it will help draw it north.  Big game hunting but only seeing squirrels. 

Hey buddy, I'm probably wrong but I thought you said a couple of days ago that you were only going to check out the models every five days or so. Lol. Maybe with that monster storm on the 14th, we can get some luck and instead as depicted, it comes further east before cutting. Already showing some front end stuff! Maybe we can score some heavy snow before changing over.

[Wonderdog]

Maybe a track from Texas to western TN instead of western MO.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Hey buddy, I'm probably wrong but I thought you said a couple of days ago that you were only going to check out the models every five days or so. Lol. Maybe with that monster storm on the 14th, we can get some luck and instead as depicted, it comes further east before cutting. Already showing some front end stuff! Maybe we can score some heavy snow before changing over.

No I proposed that. I would have cheated like Constanza did in Seinfeld. I have no will power.  I’m a weenie. 

[Bob Chill]

The 7-8th window is as good as any chance we've had this year. General consensus is to run SLP to our west but ensembles have many iterations that still drop some snow on us even with a west track. The sucky part is we have to root for a weak/disorganized system or we're toast (literally). EPS is just about 50/50 with at least a little frozen. Would be nice to pull something off (however small and messy) because it's tough sleddin' out there. 

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 7-8th window is as good as any chance we've had this year. General consensus is to run SLP to our west but ensembles have many iterations that still drop some snow on us even with a west track. The sucky part is we have to root for a weak/disorganized system or we're toast (literally). EPS is just about 50/50 with at least a little frozen. Would be nice to pull something off (however small and messy) because it's tough sleddin' out there. 

 

we need a bit more amplification in the PNA ridge to help the trough dig a bit more in the east if we want to pull of anything of consequence.  Like you said we could root for a weak sheared out wave to drop another 1" type deal with the current depiction.  The way to turn this into something with a bit more upside (and it wouldnt take an unrealistic adjustment at this range) would be a bit more amplified PNA ridge to help that trough dig south a bit more...then we "could" get a slightly more amped wave without it tracking north of us.  I am just grasping at straws here I know...but its all we got.