JakkelWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Hmm I don't really know but when it suddenly flips to a good pattern in 24 hours that's a red flag to me. Can someone reassure me that everything's alright? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 24-36 hours ago things looked so bleak. The turnaround is nothing short of miracle. Let’s hope it’s not a mirage. There were signs of things improving in Jan but the west coast trough kept getting pushed out in time. What's unusual is the way we get out of the warmish pattern. It's mostly atlantic driven. We appear to be getting lucky with the ridge in canada creating split flow. We're seeing quite a bit of agreement on that now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Hmm I don't really know but when it suddenly flips to a good pattern in 24 hours that's a red flag to me. Can someone reassure me that everything's alright? The truth is 0z could bring total destruction. Even the best analysis is only as good as the data being analyzed. No one will reassure you. We are all alone on this wretched journey called winter where despair and peril lurk around every 6 hour corner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 CFS is extremely cold from halfway through the run to the end of the run. Never seen it so cold on that model for so long. Also... 1 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 WRT to the cold CFS ... The following is part of the CPC 3-4 week outlook. Did the forecaster Kyle MacRitchie mean to say "over-forecasts cold in the Northeast" or am I missing something. Anyways they "forecast" a 50% (50%) chance of above (below) normal temperatures during week 3/4. They do forecast warmer than normal temperatures and precipitation over the southeast. The weenie in me says we could be on the cold end of something substantial. The ECMWF and JMA models, as well as a number of SubX models, forecast weaker troughing over Canada and suggest a warmer pattern over the eastern CONUS than the CFS does. Our calibration routine also lowers the cold probabilities in the CFS so that they appear more in-line with the ECMWF and JMA, which suggests that the CFS historically over-forecasts warmth in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Not sure I like the latest MJO ECMWF forecast. It stays in the COD but moves towards the unfavorable phases. Hopefully just a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Not sure I like the latest MJO ECMWF forecast. It stays in the COD but moves towards the unfavorable phases. Hopefully just a blip My first interpretation is that it appears to have no clue. I am guessing the green line is the Ensemble mean. Individual members are showing it emerge literally everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 2 hours ago, dallen7908 said: They do forecast warmer than normal temperatures and precipitation over the southeast. Boo, hiss. ETA: This is definitely banter. Is there a way to move one's own post to another thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 2 hours ago, JakkelWx said: CFS is extremely cold from halfway through the run to the end of the run. Never seen it so cold on that model for so long. Also... Gotta love how it shows sleet/zr in the gulf of Mexico. 1899 redux. I'm sure it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Odd evolution of the storm to start the new year on the 00z GFS... and lol 504DM h5 just south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 I have been busy having fun and not paying a lot of attention to the LR big picture the past few days(a good thing) but there is a lot of good stuff happening here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 I have been busy having fun and not paying a lot of attention to the LR big picture the past few days(a good thing) but there is a lot of good stuff happening here. Yea...much better look Than those dreaded severe cold and dry pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Is the EPS on board with good stuff happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Is the EPS on board with good stuff happening? I’d say yes seeing how things are progressing but I don’t have access to the paid sites that go past D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 15 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah. 0z GGEM has the scenario I mentioned with the arctic jet racing out ahead and the left behind stj sw developing and coming N. GFS/Euro ops phase in the Plains=cutter. Maybe a period to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Is the EPS on board with good stuff happening? Not according to the indices +NAO, +EPO (barely), +AO, -PNA for the early January period. Weak signal for New Year's eve storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 8 hours ago, yoda said: Odd evolution of the storm to start the new year on the 00z GFS... and lol 504DM h5 just south of us Naw we get big snows from storms that start out 300 miles north of Toronto and dive due south all the time. All you can take from that range and that crazy nonsense is the gfs thinks the amplification and blocking of the pattern is likely to continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Not according to the indices +NAO, +EPO (barely), +AO, -PNA for the early January period. Weak signal for New Year's eve storm Pna is going positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Is the EPS on board with good stuff happening? Its not a bad look in the LR on the mean, but realistically the h5 pattern won't look like that, as there is quite a bit of spread on the individual members. Verbatim the mean looks cold for much of the lower 48, but its likely due to disagreement among the members on location of the main features. We are not likely going to see low h5 height anomalies covering most of the Continental US as depicted towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 36 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d say yes seeing how things are progressing but I don’t have access to the paid sites that go past D10. I don't hate that look at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its not a bad look in the LR on the mean, but realistically the h5 pattern won't look like that, as there is quite a bit of spread on the individual members. Verbatim the mean looks cold for much of the lower 48, but its likely due to disagreement among the members on location of the main features. We are not likely going to see low h5 height anomalies covering most of the Continental US as depicted towards the end of the run. Eps looks good day 10...and the trough lingers because of it day 11-15, but I don’t like the overall look day 15. It will be really hard to sustain any cold with that look up top. Luckily guidance has very low skill there past day 10 and all the guidance agrees on a pretty good look day 10. Just have to hope the Atlantic doesn’t completely break down like the euro indicates because nothing supports the pacific becoming favorable enough absent any Atlantic help. Doesn’t mean the pac stays hostile, just it looks ambiguous and not overly hostile or helpful in the long range which given the very conflicted tropical signals makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 One positive sign so far is that there wants to be some blocking up top. When the Atlantic was hostile the epo took over. Now that the tpv is on that side there is ridging on the Atlantic side. So far there have been enough mitigating factors to prevent snow here. But if we keep a somewhat favorable blocky high latitude profile through prime climo that is unlikely to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Eps looks good day 10...and the trough lingers because of it day 11-15, but I don’t like the overall look day 15. It will be really hard to sustain any cold with that look up top. Luckily guidance has very low skill there past day 10 and all the guidance agrees on a pretty good look day 10. Just have to hope the Atlantic doesn’t completely break down like the euro indicates because nothing supports the pacific becoming favorable enough absent any Atlantic help. Doesn’t mean the pac stays hostile, just it looks ambiguous and not overly hostile or helpful in the long range which given the very conflicted tropical signals makes perfect sense. Yeah probably a good reason to keep our sights on the day 10 period- Interesting enough looks on the EPS and the GEFS for around the New Year, and beyond that is probably more muddled than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Pna is going positive GEFS yes maybe, EPS no "Ambiguous" sum it up. Too far out there to matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 Specifics to be worked out but the major globals sure like a storm in the east between Christmas and New Years. 12z GFS is a big cutter but its ripe for lake effect & upslope as the low pushes east to the north of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 I like what I see h5 post 240h on GFS in the Atlantic. Big strong high pushing toward Greenland. I think that’s what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 And that h5 pattern looks to continue as the run progresses. That is a solid high up there. This looks really good to me. It should keep us cold if nothing else. I hope I am right about this enthusiasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 468dM cold in East central Canada post 300h. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And that h5 pattern looks to continue as the run progresses. That is a solid high up there. This looks really good to me. It should keep us cold if nothing else. I hope I am right about this enthusiasm What a different look at H5 between 6z and 12z on the GFS. Looks like the 12z is going back to its idea at 0z. Can't keep up with this uncertainly at 300 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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