January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

A storm formed way offshore before this timeframe. The pacific keeps killing us.

It's not the pacific. It's looking at an op run waaaay beyond any type of useful range and expecting anything to be remotely correct that's a problem.

It makes no difference what the gfs shows in the long range. Nothing is changing the fact that we are in an extend hostile period that may continue for the next 2 months or it might flip to deep winter out of nowhere. There is literally nothing worth tracking winter wx wise for the next 7 days minimum. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not the pacific. It's looking at an op run waaaay beyond any type of useful range and expecting anything to be remotely correct that's a problem.

It makes no difference what the gfs shows in the long range. Nothing is changing the fact that we are in an extend hostile period that may continue for the next 2 months or it might flip to deep winter out of nowhere. There is literally nothing worth tracking winter wx wise for the next 7 days minimum. 

I agree

The Pacific  keeps messing up our pattern every single year. 

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I agree

The Pacific  keeps messing up our pattern every single year. 

It’s not just the pacific. It’s everything. The EPO/PNA/AO/NAO are all in the opposite phase that we want. If you take the northern Hemisphere H5 and completely flip all the reds and blues it would be our perfect snow pattern. We are in the exact opposite of what we want in EVERY way. 

[frd]

Interesting post by Simon :

 

 

 

[frd]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s not just the pacific. It’s everything. The EPO/PNA/AO/NAO are all in the opposite phase that we want. If you take the northern Hemisphere H5 and completely flip all the reds and blues it would be our perfect snow pattern. We are in the exact opposite of what we want in EVERY way. 

Exactly, keeping in mind this is my personal perspective, but have you noticed how difficult it has become the last several years in achieving a state of cooperation between the indices. You see it in the West Pac with the MJO, you see it in the Pac and the Atlantic where they never work together, you see it in the high latitudes when we do not achieve  coupling. Either a string of random bad luck, or a change in things, where everything is out of alignment . 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Exactly, keeping in mind this is my personal perspective, but have you noticed how difficult it has become the last several years in achieving a state of cooperation between the indices. You see it in the West Pac with the MJO, you see it in the Pac and the Atlantic where they never work together, you see it in the high latitudes when we do not achieve  coupling. Either a string of random bad luck, or a change in things, where everything is out of alignment . 

 

That’s not unusual though. It’s why our good snow years are few and far between sometimes. Getting multiple indices to all line up the way we want is numerical unlikely.  Plus we need them to line up in an anomalous way. If all indexes were neutral that’s still not great for us. So most years we muddle through with an imperfect pattern and DC/Balt hope to at some point fluke their way to 8-15” of snow with some nickel and dime events and maybe one decent storm mixed in. That’s a normal winter. Then every so often we get a year where they line up in our favor and we hit big or a year where they all line up against us and we get 2002/2012. 

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill @frd @WxUSAF

We are all seeing the same discouraging thing and hoping it’s temporary. I debated not even making this post (because att things look more like the not so good analogs I’m about to discuss) but the truth is the truth and if some can’t handle it oh well. But I will only say it once and then look for hopeful signs. (It’s not 100% doom and gloom) 

That said if we look at the analogs to the current pacific look, the evidence suggests that it will prevail most of the winter. When that anomalous of a central pac ridge shows up this time of year it tends to be a dominant player for the remainder of met winter.  

There are a set of analogs though that flipped colder and went in to at least a snowy period at some point later in winter.  But they had something in common. NAO help. Even during the bad periods the NAO showed signs of being favorable. Later in winter the NAO was able to offset the central pac ridge by forcing the western trough to cut under the NAO ridging.  This is the h5 look to the years with a similar pac look that went on to a decent snowy periods. 

unfortunately the modeled pattern coming looks much closer to the years that went on to be total turds.

The difference is the NAO. If we don’t get any Atlantic side help history suggests we’re toast with the current look in the pac. And unfortunately history suggests that look is likely to persist much of winter. I tried to find examples of years with that ridge strength and alignment this time of year where the pac flipped...and it’s just not numerically likely.  

Now the only silver lining is there were examples where the NAO looked bad temporarily then recovered but if the +AO/NAO locks in positive for more than 10 days or so in early January that eliminates all the decent analogs and pretty much throws us unto the dreg Years.   Some of those years had some snow early before the pattern locked in and a couple had a fluke snow very late in March but they all were pretty much total crap through the core of winter.  

I don’t like to say it but simply according to the analogs numerically if we don’t start to see signs of the AO/NAO flipping back negative within the next week or two at most...we’re likely looking at a dud year wrt snowfall.  

Hopefully peoole know I don’t just give up on a season on a whim and in previous bad starts I held on because there were signs things could easily improve.  And if we start to see either the pac or NAO improve in the next week everything I just said is out the window.  But the numbers say if this current look locks in for any extended period in early January....well you get it.   

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

When you only average 15” - 25” of snow a winter, it’s not called bad luck or a change in things where everything is out of alignment. It’s called a normal winter in the mid Atlantic. 

Possibly, but we have had periods where it appeared the blocking would couple and did not, or we would experience a longer cycle of a -NAO and then it became only transient , or the MJO would proceed more normally and not spend more time in the warmer phases and then rapidly pass the colder phases. Ah, but what you said does have merit , because  if everything lined up perfectly all the time our average  snowfall climo would be much higher.   

The general warming base state the last few decades is also a bummer as well. 

And for the record, my perception is also clouded somewhat by frustration at times. 

 

 

[frd]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hopefully peoole know I don’t just give up on a season on a whim and in previous bad starts I held on because there were signs things could easily improve.  And if we start to see either the pac or NAO improve in the next week everything I just said is out the window.  But the numbers say if this current look locks in for any extended period in early January....well you get it.  

I may be wrong with the date but one analog tossed out was 69 -70. Was that the winter which did not produce until March ?  Maybe there was a blizzard in early March that year, whether we shared in it I am not sure, recall reading a post from Uncle in the NY forum.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

I may be wrong with the date but one analog tossed out was 69 -70. Was that the winter which did not produce until March ?  Maybe there was a blizzard in early March that year, whether we shared in it I am not sure, recall reading a post from Uncle in the NY forum.  

No a majority of the snow that year was the first half including a big storm around Xmas. 

[BristowWx]

I remember 2002 quite well as my son was born Jan 18th.  It snowed that day and I thought is was divine intervention...it NEVER snowed again that winter that I recall (I was sleep deprived most of the time) outside of some flurries. 

[frd]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That said if we look at the analogs to the current pacific look, the evidence suggests that it will prevail most of the winter. When that anomalous of a central pac ridge shows up this time of year it tends to be a dominant player for the remainder of met winter.  

Two years in a row it has been there I believe, or at least in the December to Feb months ......  You agree ?

 

 

[frd]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No a majority of the snow that year was the first half including a big storm around Xmas. 

Thanks for the clarification psu.  I would love a blizzard though . 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No a majority of the snow that year was the first half including a big storm around Xmas. 

Many thank you's for taking the time to post that.   At least we know what we are likely up against based on those analogs so I have a totally different mindset now about the winter and know what to look for.  its tough pill to swallow for sure. 

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman

Yep, once the big +AO showed up in combination with crappy ridge/trough alignment in the ePac leading into the holiday I knew it was going to be a problem for longer than just a week or so. I said as much when the crappy Pac showed up before Christmas but there was know way to now if it was going to dig in an hang around for a while. It's safe to say it's going to hang around for a while now. 

I didn't have high hopes leading into this winter as I was thinking a dud was on the way back in Sept/Oct but Nov came in like a lion and made me second guess everything. The big +AO during the first half of Dec was the first warning sign. The recent flip to a -AO was a bit promising but it didn't lock in. Now that we're back to a pretty sig +AO regime it's time to trim expectations and just sit back and hope a fluke/flawed event pops up. We're half decent at that around here so I'd be surprised if Jan went snowless.

[Ji]

looks like the euro at D10 might give us some hope for a flawed event D11-15

[Wonderdog]

7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I have been around along time. Way before boards existed, Twitter and other social media outlets. Sometimes I think we have too much information now and it causes mood swings and overthinking things. In all honesty winter around these parts begins in mid January and runs till mid February. Snow before Christmas was ALWAYS a bonus, not the norm. Rarely in early January did things work out. But from January 15th or so on, even during bad winters you could count on some snow. I just think too much interpretation and model hugging takes place by some on here. They say they are stepping awhile for awhile but they can’t help themselves. Winter will eventually come to our area, and maybe a 82-83 repeat is coming where it’s one big dog and that is it. Or maybe it sucks the whole winter. Nothing we can do or say is going to change it 

Well put.

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill yep. A fluke flawed pattern event can pop up anytime. Even the worst years it usually found a way to snow by accident once or twice. I will still track. I will still hope for the fluke. And if things improve wrt to the NAO soon perhaps not all is lost. But I’m not a stick my head in the sand sugarcoat it kind of person. Better to pull the bandaid off quick imo. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like the euro at D10 might give us some hope for a flawed event D11-15

I noticed that also. Thats probably our only hope for the next 2 or 3 weeks. Get some cold around and time something up before the cold moves out.  At least its not as diffucult to time something up during prime climo. Looks rather bleak for the foreseeable future

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like the euro at D10 might give us some hope for a flawed event D11-15

Look at this loop...the SE ridge is about to go apesh!t and the trof out West is anchoring in. 

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I have been around along time. Way before boards existed, Twitter and other social media outlets. Sometimes I think we have too much information now and it causes mood swings and overthinking things. In all honesty winter around these parts begins in mid January and runs till mid February. Snow before Christmas was ALWAYS a bonus, not the norm. Rarely in early January did things work out. But from January 15th or so on, even during bad winters you could count on some snow. I just think too much interpretation and model hugging takes place by some on here. They say they are stepping awhile for awhile but they can’t help themselves. Winter will eventually come to our area, and maybe a 82-83 repeat is coming where it’s one big dog and that is it. Or maybe it sucks the whole winter. Nothing we can do or say is going to change it 

i think checking the models for digital snow beyond 5 days is still pretty much a time passer without much to show for it, but the oscillations are worth monitoring and +AO/-PNA isn't going to help things.  we just need to hope that we enter our wheelhouse of snow (i think it's early jan thru feb) with the indices in our favor, otherwise we're relying even more on luck than normal.  as far as dec/march is concerned, i can't imagine global warming is going to help us in that regard considering we're already a fringe snowtown to begin with, though i certainly can see the storms being more robust moving forward, so there's that.

[Weather Will]

Crumbs from the Snow Clown Maps EPS Day 9 12Z WB.  (There are actually several members signaling some storminess around January 7-10.)  At least it is something for me to check out on the next run in 12 hours...

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps doesn't look bad between day 9 - 12 . Opportunities for frozen  look possible to me . 

Definitely a gradient look with anything that is overly organized will cut.  Maybe we could sneak a wave under the region before the SE ridge returns.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill @frd @WxUSAF

We are all seeing the same discouraging thing and hoping it’s temporary. I debated not even making this post (because att things look more like the not so good analogs I’m about to discuss) but the truth is the truth and if some can’t handle it oh well. But I will only say it once and then look for hopeful signs. (It’s not 100% doom and gloom) 

That said if we look at the analogs to the current pacific look, the evidence suggests that it will prevail most of the winter. When that anomalous of a central pac ridge shows up this time of year it tends to be a dominant player for the remainder of met winter.  

There are a set of analogs though that flipped colder and went in to at least a snowy period at some point later in winter.  But they had something in common. NAO help. Even during the bad periods the NAO showed signs of being favorable. Later in winter the NAO was able to offset the central pac ridge by forcing the western trough to cut under the NAO ridging.  This is the h5 look to the years with a similar pac look that went on to a decent snowy periods. 

unfortunately the modeled pattern coming looks much closer to the years that went on to be total turds.

The difference is the NAO. If we don’t get any Atlantic side help history suggests we’re toast with the current look in the pac. And unfortunately history suggests that look is likely to persist much of winter. I tried to find examples of years with that ridge strength and alignment this time of year where the pac flipped...and it’s just not numerically likely.  

Now the only silver lining is there were examples where the NAO looked bad temporarily then recovered but if the +AO/NAO locks in positive for more than 10 days or so in early January that eliminates all the decent analogs and pretty much throws us unto the dreg Years.   Some of those years had some snow early before the pattern locked in and a couple had a fluke snow very late in March but they all were pretty much total crap through the core of winter.  

I don’t like to say it but simply according to the analogs numerically if we don’t start to see signs of the AO/NAO flipping back negative within the next week or two at most...we’re likely looking at a dud year wrt snowfall.  

Hopefully peoole know I don’t just give up on a season on a whim and in previous bad starts I held on because there were signs things could easily improve.  And if we start to see either the pac or NAO improve in the next week everything I just said is out the window.  But the numbers say if this current look locks in for any extended period in early January....well you get it.   

 

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there.  I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north.  It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too 

[Bob Chill]

Something less obvious worth keeping an eye on is the UK ridge pressing towards iceland/greenland. That can help block up the atlantic and fight off ridging in the east. This plot is a run over run change and not a height anomaly map. 

You can see the tendency for higher heights in that region as well as lower heights in the Atl near the 50/50 region. The UK ridge is pretty stout by d8 so it's prob not a phantom and could play an important role on how we get a flawed event down the line instead of suntans. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there.  I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north.  It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too 

The problems in 97 were an atrocious AO/NAO. The Pac wasn’t perfect but it wasn’t the main problem. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Mersky said:

 No one, and I mean no one knows what the weather will be like in two weeks. 

The Pac air flood leading into Christmas was discussed at length 2 weeks in advance and people predicting shutout and warm conditions into the holidays hit it on the head from 1-2 weeks out.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Something less obvious worth keeping an eye on is the UK ridge pressing towards iceland/greenland. That can help block up the atlantic and fight off ridging in the east. This plot is a run over run change and not a height anomaly map. 

You can see the tendency for higher heights in that region as well as lower heights in the Atl near the 50/50 region. The UK ridge is pretty stout by d8 so it's prob not a phantom and could play an important role on how we get a flawed event down the line instead of suntans. 

Good catch. We’re going to need some help on that side so that’s definitely something to watch. 

Tbh seeing the Atlantic side collapse really bothered me more than when we saw the pac turn a couple weeks ago. Once we got into December and the pac pattern started to show hints the analogs I was looking at suggested if we had a good winter it would be Atlantic not pacific driven.   My vision (and it matches enough of the pattern analogs a week ago) was as the season progressed the Atlantic would assert more influence and block up the flow enough to cause a split jet and allow the pac trough to cut under.  But I was aware there were also some comp years where the NAO broke down and those went on to be not so good. So seeing the breakdown of the AO/NAO regime was more troublesome as it made those years clearly more similar.  I think if were going to make this work it’s going to have to come from some help up top or a lot of luck with a transient Atlantic feature. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Interesting post by Simon :

 

 

 

To me this person is saying the much ballyhooed SSW is not the player it has been touted to be starting 5/10 years ago. Even the Enso does not have the predictability it used to. Many of these indexes, with seemingly a new one being rolled out Every year, are really just an attempt to put a definition on the undefinable longer range weather patterns and responses. Yes we know negative NAo and AO is important but the rest of it all is largely variable and/or unproven.  Models in the medium to longer range really Do Not predict weather but rather give varying examples of it. The best thing for mid Atlantic people to try and pin down is where is the cold air and can or how does it get here.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

To me this person is saying the much ballyhooed SSW is not the player it has been touted to be starting 5/10 years ago. Even the Enso does not have the predictability it used to. Many of these indexes, with seemingly a new one being rolled out Every year, are really just an attempt to put a definition on the undefinable longer range weather patterns and responses. Yes we know negative NAo and AO is important but the rest of it all is largely variable and/or unproven.  Models in the medium to longer range really Do Not predict weather but rather give varying examples of it. The best thing for mid Atlantic people to try and pin down is where is the cold air and can or how does it get here.

Your timing is lol. The EPS has been killing the pattern at range for a while now. Absolutely nailed the current pattern from weeks out. Frankly the climate models nailed the look from months out. And wrt discreet synoptic features they have been good inside 72 hours when they should be. We’ve had no major surprises or model busts. But don’t mind me, just continue chasing windmills.