Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. As much as I like snow... I like making money better... "Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GFS looks good .... if you live in Maine. The overall pattern looks ok. The day 10 upper level energy actually gets forced under us despite being in the upper midwest cut off... that shows the effect of the blocking regime in Canada...problem is it scours out all the cold first...the Ocean Storm doesn't phase this time and so it slides out too far south to impact the flow and thus the southerly flow ahead of the trough torches our temps. The storm is forced under the blocking but it doesn't matter. Details in the longwave pattern matter. After that is when we have a real shot according to all guidance. IF the long range guidance is close to right there is a legit good window day 12-15 and the GFS almost is a hit but the system is disjointed and fails to come together...too much NS interference and a sloppy phase. That would be a supreme example of "bad luck" in an actual very good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs individuals look better for the day 10 threat . Definitely some nice hits especially for northern areas . Here's the mean Mslp panel at hr 234 I would not totally give up on the day 10 threat until its into the medium range. There is an obvious issue...the cold is very stale by then and with the amount of ridging in Quebec...if there isn't enough of a 50/50 to keep confluence and resist the southerly flow ahead of the trough we will torch. But...there are vorts flying around and some do end up in a spot that could help...but the majority of the guidance says they either don't amplify enough or are not in the right spot at the right time. One way to really increase the chances is if the ocean storm next week phases with the NS and gets pulled up into the 50/50 location. That would change the equation and guidance would flip to a colder solution right quick. But its not a high probability ATT. After that all the guidance opens a legit window as whatever happens better or worse with day 10 they all agree that wave WILL amplify and knock down the ridging to our northeast and create a favorable window behind it with a pretty good looking trough axis and ridging across central Canada. It's the best look we have had yet for a legit snowstorm. Of course that isn't saying much...its a pretty low bar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 its not going to snow this winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. As much as I like snow... I like making money better... And also the fact that we are punting until 12-15 days down the road should allow you to focus on work. And if history is our guide 12-15 days down the road will yield nothing more than another 12-15 days down the road. You should be flush with cash after this winter. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs individuals look better for the day 10 threat . Definitely some nice hits especially for northern areas . Here's the mean Mslp panel at hr 234 The overall look day 10-15 is about as good as we can ask for on the GEFS There is definitely high pressure heading into the day 10 threat...we just need slightly lower heights near 50/50 to hold it in... After that...this is an excellent looking pressure profile...temps...and precip for an east coast snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: its not going to snow this winter How much snow did you get last week? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: How much snow did you get last week? 3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. We havent been able to get within 5 days of a real threat and its almost February. I am at an all time low with winter blues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: its not going to snow this winter nope. never again will we see snow. RIP. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. But but at least it snowed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: nope. never again will we see snow. RIP. My bet is March when everyone is ready for spring!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Shut it down. Lights off. Time to nap. The Ji has spoken 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. We havent been able to get within 5 days of a real threat and its almost February. I am at an all time low with winter blues That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month. (And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Shut it down. Lights off. Time to nap. The Ji has spoken If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 32 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old. Exactly! Just remember...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so.... But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10. LOL 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so.... But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10. LOL Starting to wonder if day 9 sneaks up in the medium range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 GEPS and GEFS both like the idea of a snowstorm somewhere in the mid Atlantic day 10-15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Starting to wonder if day 9 sneaks up in the medium range... Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening. Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch. I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!! (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so.... But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10. LOL It's only +2 - +6 that's like half as warm as January has been so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 What Bob actually wrote: 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. What the weenies see: 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Bingo. Getting crushed this week. This winter is a torch until further notice. Edit: Ninja'd by Zugzwang! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEPS and GEFS both like the idea of a snowstorm somewhere in the mid Atlantic day 10-15 Just like any given model run in winter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 ive seen this movie before......its jan 16 and we are still 10 days out---from tracking a threat......a threat that we are not sure even exists yet....we are chasing day 10 storms...except there is no storrm showing up 10 days away to chase. Its as hopeless as Ive ever seen a winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Does the null phase of the MJO necessarily foreshadow near average weather conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 the euro has zero snow for us in the EPS mean for 16 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Ji said: the euro has zero snow for us in the EPS mean for 16 days But it’s such a consistent model? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Ji said: the euro has zero snow for us in the EPS mean for 16 days Just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening. Mercy this forum is somethin' else, lol What we need is swings right now...this weekend is one swing--maybe we get a single at best. Next weekend is perhaps another swing yet to be determined. See, I think my relative calm about this winter may be a bit illogical...because I believe in the every 3-4 trend saying BWI is due for a footer this year (and all it would take is for one of the opportunities to come together a la Jan. 2000. Would love for it to be next weekend because we're nice and cold for most of next week. But I'm trying not to put all the eggs in that basket!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro has zero snow for us in the EPS mean for 16 days That's not true...but it was a pretty bad run. It really goes crazy with the ridge in the northeast day 7-11 and its lights out on any chance there.... then there are a scattering of hits in the day 12-15 range but nothing to the level of the GEFS and GEPS. The pattern looks close enough to workable that it's not out of the question something changes and we sneak a threat in but the last couple EPS runs have not been friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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