ers-wxman1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Start a new thread. We are 74 pages in on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Guidance finally coming around to reality for this event. 1040 high in the right place with insitu damming will yield a more entrenched airmass. Models, particularly the globals are almost always underdone and or too aggressive on eroding this feature out. You made a great call on the last system! Excited to keep an eye on your interpretation of the models this week. Room for further improvement too? What would it take to keep the temps trending colder and also juice up that thump at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @psuhoffman Good analysis on the next window. I do find it comforting that even if that window sucks.... ens guidance looks sweet AF down the line. This is a cold/stormy/active look. Progressive flow but great height pattern in the atlantic to fight off cutters. Of course anytime the NAO is + a cutter can happen but if we aren't going to have a block I'll be perfectly happy with this look through mid March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Start a new thread. We are 74 pages in on this one. this isn't a discussion thread for specific threats. its a Long-range thread. a thread for the weekend threat will be created in time. thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Start a new thread. We are 74 pages in on this one. Was trying to wait for the 12z suite to complete. Gonna make one soon. Basically waiting for the Euro to drop one in the punch bowl. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Start a new thread. We are 74 pages in on this one. Might want to wait another 24 hrs...don't need to jinx this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Hard to see through all of the fog on the models, but SLP positioning seems to be slowly improving and many models are trending toward keeping that 1030-1040 high in place longer. We definitely won’t see all snow, but don’t discount 2” (closer to 95) to 4” (usual cold spots near Westminster etc) of snow nw of the big cities before the transition Going to be harder to erode that airmass than models are depicting. Sadly we have no blocking in place to help us out, but we should see a solid few hours of flakes for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro ticking colder/stronger with the high leading into the 18th. Very noticeable by hr96. Should be a decent run (famous last words) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Might want to wait another 24 hrs...don't need to jinx this. Yes , I see your point. The storm may see this thread and decide to turn back. 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Good analysis on the next window. I do find it comforting that even if that window sucks.... ens guidance looks sweet AF down the line. This is a cold/stormy/active look. Progressive flow but great height pattern in the atlantic to fight off cutters. Of course anytime the NAO is + a cutter can happen but if we aren't going to have a block I'll be perfectly happy with this look through mid March. You want to feel warm and fuzzy...look at the slug of moisture coming out of the gulf at the end of the 12z gefs run right into entrenched cold air. Before that there were discreet threats around next Tuesday and Friday/Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Yes , I see your point. The storm may see this thread and decide to turn back. Ah yes, threads jinx storms, and snow can’t stick when it’s “too warm the day before”. How could we forget these ancient winter storm proverbs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro is quite a bit stronger than the GFS.. ~ 6 mbs in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: Euro is quite a bit stronger than the GFS.. ~ 6 mbs in the plains. Yea, that and the track is a little further north than 0z so could cancel out improvements with the antecedent airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I won't mind a changeover as long as I get some good snow TV with at least some accumulation before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Through 114, Euro is north of 0z. Its stronger so it increases the ridging out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ticking colder/stronger with the high leading into the 18th. Very noticeable by hr96. Should be a decent run (famous last words) Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition? Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs edit - Newest euro definitely trended stronger, more north and therefor pumps the ridge more. Not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, that and the track is a little further north than 0z so could cancel out improvements with the antecedent airmass Main slug of precip seems quite a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Very light snow in western parts of the subforum at 117/120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, that and the track is a little further north than 0z so could cancel out improvements with the antecedent airmass Yeah, it's def further north with the low and furthest north of guidance. Still snows over us. At least in one panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition? Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs Like I've said before. Looks like a bread and butter west track/eroding CAD situation. Odds favor some frozen precip. Whether or not it's a memorable or "good" event will depend on how much QPF hits while the column works. Euro is stepping back but it's going to wobble around every 12 hours for a few days. We'll know by Wed if it's going to be a decent snow event or a quick small hit that gets washed away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS / Euro blend isn’t too shabby. Thankfully we have 4 days left of tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's def further north with the low and furthest north of guidance. Still snows over us. At least in one panel. The wobbles have commenced. Euro broke the trend so we probably know less than we did 30 minutes ago. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Dr no never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Thread is open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: The wobbles have commenced. Euro broke the trend so we probably know less than we did 30 minutes ago. lol the euro does like to amplify lows too strong in the mid range...weenie rule 14e 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro shifted the heavier precip about a few hundred miles north. Not as good for us but it isn’t a total disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Thread is open Guess that explains the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 There is a storm thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: my post was for the threat next week. Did you want that in storm thread also? That was my bad. This stupid phone merged them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: ahhhh ok...why not just delete all these posts and I'll shut up now I AM TRYING BUT YOU KEEP REPLYING 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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