stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: This is slowly morphing into a bread and butter west track with 2-6" of snow before ice/dryslot. It's looked like that general setup since d10. Nice to see us better off today than the past couple. I think we can still improve, although I’d take this and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Weaker low into the GL @showmethesnow Jump to the coast??? I'm not showme, but the primary holds on until well north of us before beginning to transfer south of Boston. But again as everyone else said, much better run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: I think we can still improve, although I’d take this and run with it. Agreed, this as is, is pretty nice, but there is definitely room to improve further......hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: I'm not showme, but the primary holds on until well north of us before beginning to transfer south of Boston. But again as everyone else said, much better run. I'm reaching, but hoping for enough improvements over the next few days. The panels after 132 say probably not, but definitely better, as you and others said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly... For comparison, this is EZF at the same time frame. Still not much of a warm nose at there at 18z, it's probably sleet in EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Northern Delaware with a higher Kuchera than Philly or NYC, hey I am in !!!!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly... Think you are right. Probably bombing flakes at this point. If you note the good lift through and just above the warm nose I would think those warmer temps would be getting mixed out upwards somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Most, if not all frozen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 this will continue to get colder with each run in my opinion.....how often have we seen this with CAD events. Always colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Weaker low into the GL @showmethesnow Jump to the coast??? eta: Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Can we start a thread for this? It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Very interesting snowfall distribution, ( NW to SE ) might be looking at an event that is a little out of the norm. The Euro will be telling. , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Can we start a thread for this? It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion. Bob suggested earlier to wait a little bit longer. I have to agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea. We dont really even want it to transfer out here. We would just dry slot sooner. Obviously it could be better for you guys to the east. Especially the Eastern Shore. But for those of us to NW we want exactly what we see now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly... That is a snow sounding with any decent rates. Although the best lift is below the DGZ and in the warm layer...so it likely would be an icy rimed messy low ratio 5-1 type snow....but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Oh boy...taking the family to Disney for the first time this Sunday (out of BWI). I will never root against snow, but hoping for an earlier onset Saturday morning and clearing out by the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Fringed - Jumped over - missed in Purcellville/Loudoun @Ji - #WhatTheHeck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: Very interesting snowfall distribution, ( NW to SE ) might be looking at an event that is a little out of the norm. The Euro will be telling. , That is quite a harsh cut off for frozen. 0.5” in Fairfax/Loudoun and over 10” just an hour to the NW or NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Fringed - Jumped over - missed in Purcellville/Loudoun @Ji - #WhatTheHeck GFS has a dryslot, probably due to down-sloping, across VA but I would have to look at the exact wind flow to see. But that kind of dryslot, while possible, is dependent on the exact wind trajectory to be correct. The lighter precip rates also negatively impact the thermal profile as less mixing out of the warm layer. The result is ugly there...but that is not the kind of meso scale feature the GFS is going to get right at this range so don't worry, the larger more important factors all broke our way this run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It would be nice to put down a snowpack at the start of the pattern change because whatever happens it is likely to stay cold a while after with a 1040 high dropping into the midwest behind the system and the epo ridge going ape in the longer range. We could have a rare situation with extended snowcover "IF" this threat works out. Especially if we can get some appreciable ice on top of a few inches of snow. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Oh boy...taking the family to Disney for the first time this Sunday (out of BWI). I will never root against snow, but hoping for an earlier onset Saturday morning and clearing out by the evening. If your flight isnt until Sunday, I doubt this effects it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can we start a thread for this? It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion. Let’s hold off. 18z at least or after the complete 12z suite 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z CMC at 120 has mod-heavy snow at DCA/IAD/BWI and down towards EZF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat. Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west. But its damn close to a big storm for that range. Just need a slight adjustment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Pretty nice event on the GFS, by the time we lose 850s the precip is mostly gone. Looks like thump to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat. Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west. But its damn close to a big storm for that range. Just need a slight adjustment. That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC at 120 has mod-heavy snow at DCA GEM significantly south of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 All ops are converging on a colder start to the storm next weekend. The 0z EPS ticked up quite a bit with # of solutions that have snowfall in SW VA. Now the ops are agreeing with that. We're getting close to locking in some sort of winter wx event now. By this time tomorrow if everything holds or improves it's probably game on here. Warm fronts can be modeled decent 3-4 days in advance so these op runs are at least believable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 You won’t get a transfer that helps our region unless you get that low into about Tennessee. I don’t see that happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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