jayyy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Let's talk tomorrow, this time. Try another 2-3 days. The GFS will show 4 very different solutions tomorrow from run to run. As it almost always does when the energy in question is nowhere near the CONUS for good model sampling. patience, young jedis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Overnight Euro run vs. 12z has a stronger low cutting into the central Lakes with a very similar track. Also seeing the CAD scoured out quicker and this is probably due to a combo of the lead low (in the NE rotating up through the 50/50) moving out a little quicker and the stronger SW flow associated with the stronger cutting low to our west. So not surprisingly we saw the snowfall maps shift significantly north as to where the 1 inch line now resides around the PA line , 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 We also see a shift north on the EPS snowfall maps as well where the 2" line is just north of Baltimore at this time. Not going to count but I would say most of the snowfall means are being produced by roughly 1/3 of the members with a hand full or so of them being fairly significant events. Interestingly enough we have a slightly better look for locking in the CAD and yet we are seeing it scoured out quicker. This is probably due to the EPS also seeing a stronger SW flow due to a stronger cutting low into the Lakes. To be honest I question the CAD being scoured out so quickly with a low that is cutting so far to our west and the good CAD signature we are seeing beforehand. Also of note we saw a slight adjustment of the cutting lows track to the NW. Would really like to see this low farther to the east on its cut as well as a quicker arrival time to take advantage of the cold while it is locked in. Otherwise we are probably on the border line at this time of seeing all the good overrunning moisture running to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Not going to dive deep into it but we are getting some very interesting looks on the EPS day 9/10 onward until the end of the run. And if the models are to be believed these looks would extend beyond the end, potentially a good deal beyond. But the devil is in the details and until we see these looks closer in time where the smaller features are not being washed out by smoothing we are left guessing for the most part at what to expect. I will say though, I like very much what I am seeing at this time and if it holds and we can get a little bit of blocking thrown into the mix I believe it could be a very exciting week or two coming up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 EPS 0z mean through MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 EPS Oz probability of a an inch or more through the 27th. Point here is literally don’t have a meltdown if next weekend does not work out....at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Guess I will throw a life preserver for those drowning in despair over the storm next weekend. Your welcome. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 WB 6z GFF looks a little better if you like iciness to start your weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Out in fantasy land but we do like winter storms on weekends. GFS WB 6z Sat 25th. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 hours ago, Scraff said: Probably time to panic? I dont think so. Depends on what you are panicking over I guess. If you are nervous the front end thump wont drop 10" of snow and sleet then sure. These primary storms in the midst of a pattern change generally dont overperform. This is likely the same....just a tablesetter for the week of the 20th. I will be happy with a coating of slop before any flip. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just one run (06z gfs) and probably doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things but I did like what I saw as far as adjustments over the 00Z run. The map below shows the changes we saw from the 00Z gfs to the 06Z gfs. Notice that we saw an adjustment to higher heights over top our cutting system as well lower heights to our NE. Higher heights over top help to keep the system more suppressed to the south as well as helps keep the low from ramping up to quickly with a stronger SW flow. Lower heights to our NE show that the confluence is holding a little longer which helps in keeping the CAD locked in longer as well as helps to mitigate northern latitude gain as our cutting low progresses eastward. Not surprisingly when we look at the surface we saw a weaker low tracking SE of the 00z track. We also saw the CAD hold on longer/stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Latest GEFS was interesting. Quicker system with an adjustment of the track SE. Now also showing secondary lows popping up off the coast anywhere from around OBX up to Jersey. Actually had some very good hits pop up (3) of 6+ DC north. With totals 10+ in central and N MD. A fourth was there as well with 6+ around the PA line and 12+ just north of the line. Other more modest hits for our region were also in the mix. Needless to say we saw an improvement on the means especially in northern sections and north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Latest GEFS was interesting. Quicker system with an adjustment of the track SE. Now also showing secondary lows popping up off the coast anywhere from around OBX up to Jersey. Actually had some very good hits pop up (3) of 6+ DC north. With totals 10+ in central and N MD. A fourth was there as well with 6+ around the PA line and 12+ just north of the line. Other more modest hits for our region were also in the mix. Needless to say we saw an improvement on the means especially in northern sections and north. GEPS has been doing this and has been a bit further south with the low track in general. Still a long way to go. You mentioned the confluence to our NE and that probably is the key area to watch in future runs. The strength of that will make or break snow/ice chances for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks like things settled down overnight wrt next weekend's storm with the lp getting into a better place. Wouldn't take much to get it back to where it was imo. Maybe just a blip on the models. 6z is also showing a bonafide coastal the next weekend. Some have said it takes time for a pattern change to pay off. I'm beginning to believe that. Hopefully by Tuesday, we'll have clarity on the first storm of the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Out in fantasy land but we do like winter storms on weekends. GFS WB 6z Sat 25th. The storm after that looks good too. Anyone have the 408 gfs panel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Next weekend has always been marginal and completely dependent on how details wrt CAD and initial WAA moisture feed set up. But it’s not a great longwave pattern. It would have to break right. After that everything looks the same as outlined yesterday. Next week has a couple threats consistent across guidance. This is a classic look... the look at the end is rare but one that often produces. It wasn’t responsible for a huge number of the snow events I looked at but it was a healthy number considering how rare that type of epo ridge aligned over the top combined with a broad SW to NE conus trough like that is. If we’re going to roll without NAO help after the blocking period day 8-12 that’s the best look to do it. Other than an NAO block that’s the next best look I could draw up. Geps ans gefs both generally support the same ideas for the next 2 weeks and as @Bob Chill has said every piece of guidance we have continues this look into and through February. But seeing the ensembles show clear signs the STJ is likely to continue to be a player and undercut the pna ridge week two and beyond is a great development. The fear with the cfs look is cold dry with only cutters able to turn the corner. The look being shown on the ensembles around 2 weeks which would be more likely to see details than the seasonal guidance relaxes those fears imo. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 ECMWF Monthlies are brutally cold for February. Dunno if already posted somewhere back as it initialized on the 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: ECMWF Monthlies are brutally cold for February. Dunno if already posted somewhere back as it initialized on the 5th. I think you mean the 1st? Euro monthlies are run once per month unless I'm out to lunch. Feb looks just like the cfs monthly/weekly and is basically a Feb 2015 redux. Right or wrong, it's remarkable have well everything agrees for Feb. There are a number of reasons to be encouraged that winter starts next weekend and holds on for a while 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Well said @psuhoffman. At best this weekend will be some front end snow/mix before rain. That’s fine, it was almost certain to not be pure snow. But big possibilities rolling into the following week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Well said @psuhoffman. At best this weekend will be some front end snow/mix before rain. That’s fine, it was almost certain to not be pure snow. But big possibilities rolling into the following week. Yea, no big deal about next weekend. It's never looked like a good storm. Just one of the ways we stat pad on the regular around here. Even if it totally blows up it's nothing more than a beginning of a new regime. Our chances should progressively increase as we move forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The euro ensembles are on fire, but backwards, it satisfies the inner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 hours ago, Ji said: Between 6z and 00z...on the same day ..35 degree difference at 18z Saturday. Absolutely embarrassing This is surprising in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Last nights Hi Res Euro had some ice with next weekends storm. That threat isnt over yet. The long range guidance all still looks really good. I dont get the negativity of a few in this thread. The Euro nailed this warm up a couple of weeks ago. There is no reason to think it is wrong about the decent pattern two weeks from now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Here is a summary of the forecast for next week's projected storm Sunday and Monday - doom and gloom "its going to rain" everyone is out but secretly watching and hoping. Tuesday: Positive run - everyone is hopeful and reinvested. Wednesday - Thursday - the positive run from Tuesday collapses everyone is back on the ledge. Friday morning - run moves favorable Friday afternoon - run looks significantly better everyone can't believe we are going to luck into something. "Mappy says enjoy your white rain weenies" Saturday - Temps are only marginal - the 6 inches predicted by the ICON is a bust and central MD gets a 1/2 inch of slop and Carrol, Hartford and Cecil gets 2 inches. :-) You're welcome! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Last nights Hi Res Euro had some ice with next weekends storm. That threat isnt over yet. The long range guidance all still looks really good. I dont get the negativity of a few in this thread. The Euro nailed this warm up a couple of weeks ago. There is no reason to think it is wrong about the decent pattern two weeks from now. What is the “Hi Res” Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 To echo others....EPS looks really nice with some big storm potential. I see three distinct windows with quite a few hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The gfs is trending back our way. Small steps but next weekend is still very much in play IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Low track and transfer a bit further southeast this run. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 47 minutes ago, jaydreb said: What is the “Hi Res” Euro? It is on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now