Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away.

Here's how I look at it... this winter has pretty much been epic disaster so far. We've all paid our dues already. There's a half decent chance that the pattern on deck is generally favorable for multiple weeks in a row. Even if the 18z gfs played out it's still a good a good look at the end. As long as the later periods on the ens keep looking ok I'm not going to stress about anything.

OTOH- if the pattern flips back to abject failure before Jan is done this place will implode and we can call it a winter and meet back here next fall. The good thing is the CFS, Euro Weeklies and CanSips all look basically identical in the Pac for all of Feb into March. I know seasonal and weekly guidance suck sometimes but seeing unanimous agreement is encouraging. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm.  I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern.  January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks. 
 

I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you guys are basing your long term forecasts on 168+ hour GFS runs, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Relax guys. All it takes is one or two Features being out of place for that storm be a lakes cutter on models. Models have zero clue as to what’s going on

Meteo knowledge and our climo say what will happen next weekend is Snow (how much still a huge question) to ice to rain with the usual colder spots up here near Westminster and points north holding onto a sloppy mix for a while longer than areas near 95, which will serve as the catalyst to a true wintry pattern. 
 

relax kids. Stop the cancel winter posts. Remember, with global warming, our winter is really February to April anyway LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...