January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Very cold. Nice to see. 

Euro is not nearly as cold, and we have the well known GFS bias of being too cold in the LR. Still a ways to go.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Very cold. Nice to see. 

GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro is not nearly as cold, and we have the well known GFS bias of being too cold in the LR. Still a ways to go.

I agree with this to a degree. The gfs is usually too cold at long range but that is typically arctic air lush to the south from the nw. This is cad cold for next weekend. Often that is undermodeled across the board.

The negative for next weekend for me is that for the past 12 hours of runs the low position has worsened across the models. I’d really like to see that low make it to the Ohio Valley. Not a fan of the Kansas to Michigan track ( or worse) lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro is not nearly as cold, and we have the well known GFS bias of being too cold in the LR. Still a ways to go.

Getting that feeling we are going to continue to slowly move away from a big thump to mix situation and more thump quickly to sleet mix to rain usual areas with well inland holding onto frozen much longer. Typical progression with these storms. Better than where we are at today and tomorrow anyway. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I agree with Ralph. The 6z gfs wasn’t a good run for next weekend.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree with Ralph. The 6z gfs wasn’t a good run for next weekend.

Analyzing the GEFS moreso than the GFS. I dont put alot of stock in the op GFS until 5 days or less leads. 

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know PSU and Bob have mentioned this several times..But that look at the end of the EPS run with the bagginess off the west coast and a signal that the STJ is undercutting the PNA ridge is money.  LR caveats and all...but man that is a nice look.

Another area we might want to keep an eye on is what we see in the PAC NW. Think given the current setup in the longer range this has better odds of producing then from the weak split flow showing up off the SW coast. What we are seeing is a split flow up over the EPO ridge with the NS and this is being undercut into the PAC NW by the PAC stream. With the troughing/piece of pv to the west providing ample energy to both streams. Given the current setup with a fairly aggressive trough in the east this is actually a good look for potential.. 

[MD Snow]

One thing we may be forgetting here is that this probably still isn't the final solution. There is still plenty of time for it to morph into something completely different. The LPC could trend further west still and then back east. Could trend to all rain or more snow. Still 7 days out, which is an eternity in this hobby.  

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:

 

I agree that the GFS is most likely too cold for next weekend and has a known bias for that.

I would also add that the GEFS has a better moisture surge when comparing to the 00z run and gets precip in much quicker. Also has a real nice CAD profile on the 2m temps.

I atached the last 2 runs of 24 hr qpf and the 2m temp anomalies.

With the GFS cold bias we need a real good buffer in temps this far out lol.

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Another area we might want to keep an eye on is what we see in the PAC NW. Think given the current setup in the longer range this has better odds of producing then from the weak split flow showing up off the SW coast. What we are seeing is a split flow up over the EPO ridge with the NS and this is being undercut into the PAC NW by the PAC stream. With the troughing/piece of pv providing ample energy to both streams. Given the current setup with a fairly aggressive trough in the east this is actually a good look for potential.. 

Curious...whats your take on the 06z GEFS?  Same timeframe....with a more robust signal cutting under the ridge.

[showmethesnow]

49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season.

 

Really am starting to like the potential of what we are seeing beyond day 10 on the models. And beyond the end of the extended as well as this has the looks of something that could setup for a time.  Will pretty much be dependent on if we can get something to slow the flow in the east (NAO/50/50). We see that and I think we are ripe for a fun time.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Curious...whats your take on the 06z GEFS?  Same timeframe....with a more robust signal cutting under the ridge.

That look is more favorable for SS interaction. Up in the PAC west/EPO region we really aren't seeing much of a split of the flows as the distance between the height lines are staying uniform.

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That look is more favorable for SS interaction. Up in the PAC west/EPO region we really aren't seeing much of a split of the flows as the distance between the height lines are staying uniform.

Got it...much appreciated. So, in determining the general idea of where the split flow is....flowing, you are looking for where the height lines deviate from that uniform look?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree with Ralph. The 6z gfs wasn’t a good run for next weekend.

Yeah but next weekend hasn’t really ever looked very promising for us.  It seems like our real window starts after that. 

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Curious...whats your take on the 06z GEFS?  Same timeframe....with a more robust signal cutting under the ridge.

Thought I would add something. PSU threw out analogs out the other day that weren't promising for our snow chances as far as a -EPO/+PNA combo. Good reason for that as that pretty much overwhelms the flow throwing a deep trough into the eastern portion of the country. This look is not what he is referring to though.

Now this look above would clock in as a -EPO and a fairly strong +PNA. This is where looking at indices alone can be misleading. What we actually have is a -EPO and a very strong northern based +PNA. If you notice to the south we are seeing a flat flow with hints of a split flow and southern stream involvement. This is actually not a bad look at all if we can get some backing of the flow in the east (believe PSU mentioned this as well on his analog post about needing blocking up top) otherwise we are looking at progressive systems.

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really am starting to like the potential of what we are seeing beyond day 10 on the models. And beyond the end of the extended as well as this has the looks of something that could setup for a time.  Will pretty much be dependent on if we can get something to slow the flow in the east (NAO/50/50). We see that and I think we are ripe for a fun time.

NAO block and take our chances with a bigger storm or progressive Atl side and several medium events. Choose your poison.

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Got it...much appreciated. So, in determining the general idea of where the split flow is....flowing, you are looking for where the height lines deviate from that uniform look?

Yeah. So besides the obvious, trough/closed low undercutting ridging, you can also get split flow setting up when you start seeing large gaps between height lines.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah but next weekend hasn’t really ever looked very promising for us.  It seems like our real window starts after that. 

I think next weekend had/has the attention of many because it is the first legit frozen threat after this torch weekend pattern and is also ushering in the change farther down the line. Albeit it's a mix look and pretty much always has been but frozen is frozen and better than 70 degrees.

[jayyy]

Dark Sky shows 4-8” for next Saturday, let’s just go with it and see what happens... what could go wrong LMAO

[jaydreb]

I know it’s been mentioned but that 6z GEFS run is total weenieness.  Lots of big hits.

 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAO block and take our chances with a bigger storm or progressive Atl side and several medium events. Choose your poison.

Bigger storms all the way. And this isn't so much because I am big game hunting, which I always am , but more so because I think the odds are better if we go that route. Right now from what I am seeing on the models the trough positioning looks to set up a little too far east for progressive systems and I have a fear that if we don't see some form of blocking to slow the flow we will run the risk of seeing systems suppressed as they run to our south (Congrats S VA/N Carolina). But on the other hand the trough positioning is pretty much primo for systems if they amplify which we would see with blocking. And I don't necessarily believe it would be a one shot and we are done deal to boot. Could be a case of one system amplifying and nailing us and then providing a transient 50/50 for a follow up. And seeing as the models at this time are suggestive of this general setup being locked in for awhile beyond the end of the extended it would provide potentially a wide window to score when we could possibly be talking transient blocking. So Big Dog all the way as far as I am concerned.

[WeatherPSU]

Remember just a week ago when everyone had cancelled winter.  Model hugging is never the way to go....either way.  

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, WeatherPSU said:

Remember just a week ago when everyone had cancelled winter.  Model hugging is never the way to go....either way.  

Everyone? You mean maybe some were? I know I was no where close to canceling anything especially considering we were in early January. Been at this too long to get caught up in all the hype (both good and bad) we see sometimes.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Everyone? You mean maybe some were? I know I was no where close to canceling anything especially considering we were in early January. Been at this too long to get caught up in all the hype (both good and bad) we see sometimes.

I am EVERYONE!!!!

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, WeatherPSU said:

Remember just a week ago when everyone had cancelled winter.  Model hugging is never the way to go....either way.  

Who is hugging anything. I see a lot of analysis of the different looks with discussion of possible variations we might see and all the options. But yes the NWP has a part in that. How do you suggest we analyze the long range?  Fuzzy caterpillars and wives tales about fog?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who is hugging anything. I see a lot of analysis of the different looks with discussion of possible variations we might see and all the options. But yes the NWP has a part in that. How do you suggest we analyze the long range?  Fuzzy caterpillars and wives tales about fog?

I prefer the squirrel-acorn correlation.

[Cold Rain]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I prefer the squirrel-acorn correlation.

The persimmon seed analysis is a pretty good way to go as well.

Anyway, it's nice to see hints of blocking in the NAO region.  If (big if) it sets up, my guess is that it may not be quite as transient as it appears at present.  Long way to go, though.  Assuming we continue to see the pattern progress and don't get a rug-pull, you guys are going to do very well.

Given how active the pattern has been, and I don't see any reason for that to change, it's only a matter of time.  Again, assuming we don't start kicking the can and this is, indeed, the real deal.  It certainly looks like it is, for a change.  It's been a long time since we've had real cold injected into an active southern stream...at least it has for us down in my area.

[frd]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am EVERYONE!!!!

Ha ha ....... you underestimate your effect on the weenies.  disclaimer ....."some weenies " 

On a side note,  come to papa baby /  and the CFS has done a good job as well with the MJO progression and trends.   

 

[Bob Chill]

0z EPS was a notable step towards a favorable outcome (not all rain) next weekend. I don't disagree with anyone about the flaws but spiking the all rain football can come back and bite. There is a deep/cold airmass in advance that needs to be scoured. The whole setup to me looks like a common front end thump/mix/rain or dryslot. It's not convoluted or unusual. It's a bread and butter setup that can break good or bad. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Ha ha ....... you underestimate your effect on the weenies.  disclaimer ....."some weenies " 

On a side note,  come to papa baby /  and the CFS has done a good job as well with the MJO progression and trends.   

 

The general look is ok, but verbatim we would be fighting cold/dry, and any wave that amps would tend to take a NW track without perfect timing. Might be a decent pattern for several smaller events.