Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Geez it didnt take long for the pattern change to end in disaster Come on man. You know the drill. The pattern never looked "amazing" so we deal with the flaws. There will be plenty without blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking at the multi parameter 850/QPF it looks like the trough axis sets up a little too far east. A lot of ocean storms once the trough digs. Still a number of good solutions here just making the observation that the risk of cold/dry shouldn't be overlooked. CFS weeklies were hinting at that. Had the crud pattern this week transitioning to near normal temps above normal precip then finally to cold/dry and eventually colder/drier first week or so of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, beggars can't be choosers here. Even with the issues it's still magnitudes better than where we are over the next 8 days. Crawl, walk, and run. I agree...but I do chuckle when going into an advertised cold/dry look people say “well we need the cold to have a chance” or “I’ll take me chances with the cold”. Then a few days into it when it becomes apparent we will waste the cold with 10 days of no precip they are like “this sucks we finally get cold and there is no precip for 2 weeks” when the pattern said that was coming from a mile away. Not saying that’s how we go this time just saying I’ve seen that show before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I agree...but I do chuckle when going into an advertised cold/dry look people say “well we need the cold to have a chance” or “I’ll take me chances with the cold”. Then a few days into it when it becomes apparent we will waste the cold with 10 days of no precip they are like “this sucks we finally get cold and there is no precip for 2 weeks” when the pattern said that was coming from a mile away. Not saying that’s how we go this time just saying I’ve seen that show before. Serious question: is there such thing as warm/dry, cold/wet pattern in the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I would rather have cold and dry then wet and warm. Let the chips fall where they may. A little luck is needed. Don't think the models factor that in yet, which is why this hobby is fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Serious question: is there such thing as warm/dry, cold/wet pattern in the winter? There is a pattern that makes this outcome more likely. When there is little blocking ( we lose confluence, 50/50, pv location, etc and also taking into account the trough axis location ) you can actually have repeated episodes of very cold and then transition to warmer/mild and wet. Happened many times last year in the winter and so far this year when storms have cut. Granted you might go the route of snow>ice to rain as well if there is CAD set-up and if the air mass is very cold. You might also get re-development in cases such as the primary weakening to our NW, and then a new center develops closer to the coast, but with out latitude the moisture usually ends before the real cold moves in and we can transition back to all snow. Areas to our NE benefit the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Then a few days into it when it becomes apparent we will waste the cold with 10 days of no precip they are like “this sucks we finally get cold and there is no precip for 2 weeks” Not as much an issue in a moderate or a strong Nino, as you know, when you see a huge moisture laden storm systems approach from the SW. Then we snow at 12 degrees. We have had an active STJ this season so far, so that is a plus. As for the SE ridge, maybe it will not get displaced as much as some think. All I can say is that we have potential, it is never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Serious question: is there such thing as warm/dry, cold/wet pattern in the winter? In the mountains. Or in March where the boundary layer can be warm due to solar before a storm. But thats not really a consistent option here in mid winter. Because there tends to be ridging ahead of storms it would require storms constantly bombing to our southeast and pulling in cold. Not realistic. One fluke storm maybe. Not a pattern. The closest thing is a -NAO pattern like 2010 where it’s not really “cold” when it’s not snowing. Not warm though either. Just not that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I don’t think PSU cancelled winter, he was just pointing out that the historical analogs did not look good if the crappy pattern lasted multiple weeks. He puts a lot of work and research into his posts. That perfectly summarized what I thought I had said clearly enough. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Ok, moved the banter to banter thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I’m ok with super deep cold and dry versus this mild weather like we have upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Here's the Eps day 8-15 h5 anomaly matched up with the 7 day QPF anomaly and lastly the day 8-15 2 M temp anomaly. Looks intriguing. Definitely not a dry look. ...nor a overly "too cold look" This dmv hole that always shows up is troubling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The 7 day mean might not be dry but a check under the hood does show a notable dropoff in QPF after the 20th across the EPS members. The period centered around the 19th is becoming a legit threat window. Still too much spread. We'll know within 3-5 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better. But did not get double digit frozen (even though it looks like a sleet bomb after a bit of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better. Agreed. Threat about 9 days away now....all you can ask for is a chance....there are no guarantees nine days out even if all of the indices line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just for the fun execise... 18z gefs is pretty close to a big snow event around the 19th. Move that north atl low a little south to the 50/50 area and beef up blocking in the nao domain and the solution changes to legit snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 25 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’m ok with super deep cold and dry versus this mild weather like we have upcoming. Agreed. Its winter. I want winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just for the fun execise... 18z gefs is pretty close to a big snow event around the 19th. Move that north atl low a little south to the 50/50 area and beef up blocking in the nao domain and the solution changes to legit snow. That really was fun. Most things presented as fun are not. That weekend is really starting to look intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just for the fun execise... 18z gefs is pretty close to a big snow event around the 19th. Move that north atl low a little south to the 50/50 area and beef up blocking in the nao domain and the solution changes to legit snow. Pretty consistent signal for that time frame for a frozen/mixy precip event. Could be fun times a bit sooner than we all thought. Minus Merksy ofc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just for the fun execise... 18z gefs is pretty close to a big snow event around the 19th. Move that north atl low a little south to the 50/50 area and beef up blocking in the nao domain and the solution changes to legit snow. Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Not bad for the 18th - 25th of Jan window. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 ^ A trip to Canaan or Deep Creek looks like a good bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 @C.A.P.E. one of the best gefs runs of the year. Ji would only approve of 4 member solutions though. Lol. I was a little surprised how many members give us a little snow or ice on tne 16th-17th. Not sure I buy that but overall a solid run and inline with eps/geps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @C.A.P.E. one of the best gefs runs of the year. Ji would only approve of 4 member solutions though. Lol. I was a little surprised how many members give us a little snow or ice on tne 16th-17th. Not sure I buy that but overall a solid run and inline with eps/geps Yeah there are 4-5 big hitters in the mix. The 16th might be a bit soon but its still a week out so who knows. Seems the general improvement in the pattern is incrementally trending sooner on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I like the gefs version of d15 better than the eps. Similar with the general pattern but keeps the door open for pac storms/stj activity. ETA: this is a visual of exactly what @psuhoffman was talking about with a -epo and neutral or -pna 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @C.A.P.E. one of the best gefs runs of the year. Ji would only approve of 4 member solutions though. Lol. I was a little surprised how many members give us a little snow or ice on tne 16th-17th. Not sure I buy that but overall a solid run and inline with eps/geps I like the longwave pattern on the GEFS a lot. -EPO/-AO plus some Southwest ridging. And very active storm track. Very nice. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I like the longwave pattern on the GEFS a lot. -EPO/-AO plus some Southwest ridging. And very active storm track. Very nice. Sure like the odds showing up. Imo it looks like better than a 50/50 shot of winter wx within 15 days. We'll prob be tracking a discrete mixed event within then next 4-5 days or so 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 This looks like the GEFS over the pole with the EPS PNA ridge. NAO is off either way, but in general a pretty decent match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 What a great run on that storm next weekend from the 18z GFS...that’s some cold smoke for a little while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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